Osasuna vs Villarreal predictions for this La Liga clash. Jagoba Arrasate’s final game as Osasuna boss is against Villarreal at El Sadar on Saturday. Can he get a final victory? Read on for all our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
La Liga | Gameweek 38 – May 25, 2024 at 1pm UK at Estadio El Sadar
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Osasuna vs Villarreal Predictions
Osasuna’s Farewell to Arrasate: Villarreal Aim to Spoil the Party
Key Stats
– Villarreal have scored 64 goals in La Liga this season, averaging 1.7 goals per game.
– Osasuna have conceded 55 goals, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities.
– Alexander Sorloth has netted 23 goals, including nine in his last six matches.
As Jagoba Arrasate prepares to manage Osasuna for the final time, his side takes on Villarreal at El Sadar on Saturday. This La Liga fixture, while not crucial for the standings, promises excitement and a fitting farewell for Arrasate. Osasuna, sitting in 11th place with 44 points, aim to leapfrog into the top half with a win against their eighth-placed opponents, Villarreal.
Form and Context
Osasuna:
Osasuna enter this match on a high, having ended a six-game winless streak with a stunning 4-1 victory over Atletico Madrid. Goals from Raul Garcia, Aimar Oroz, and Lucas Torro ensured they became only the second team to triumph at the Civitas Metropolitano this season. This remarkable win not only boosted their morale but also demonstrated their potential to upset bigger teams.
However, their home form has been less inspiring, with no wins in their last four games at El Sadar. Aiming for a third consecutive top-half finish, Osasuna are motivated to give Arrasate a memorable send-off. The manager, who is expected to join Mallorca, leaves behind a legacy of promotion and a Copa del Rey final appearance.
Villarreal:
Villarreal, under the guidance of Marcelino, have seen a resurgence since his return in November. Despite a strong finish to the season, their early struggles mean they will end the campaign in eighth place, missing out on European football. Marcelino’s side has amassed 40 points from 24 matches since his takeover, showcasing a significant improvement.
Their recent form includes an exhilarating 4-4 draw with Real Madrid, where Alexander Sorloth netted all four goals, highlighting their attacking prowess. With a three-match unbeaten run, Villarreal aim to extend this streak and spoil Arrasate’s farewell.
Tactical Overview and Expected Lineups
Osasuna:
- Goalkeeper: Herrera
- Defenders: Areso, Catena, Herrando, Mojica
- Midfielders: Torro, Munoz, Ibanez
- Forwards: Pena, Gomez, Raul Garcia
Osasuna will likely adopt a balanced approach, focusing on solid defence and quick transitions. The absence of Ruben Garcia, David Garcia, and Kike Barja due to injuries will be a challenge. Moi Gomez’s inclusion could provide the creativity needed in the final third.
Villarreal:
- Goalkeeper: Jorgensen
- Defenders: Femenia, Bailly, Mosquera, Moreno
- Midfielders: Guedes, Comesana, Parejo, Baena
- Forwards: Moreno, Sorloth
Villarreal are expected to play an attacking game, leveraging Sorloth’s current form. The return of Femenia and Baena from suspension will strengthen their lineup. Marcelino’s strategy will likely involve high pressing and exploiting Osasuna’s defensive lapses.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Villarreal’s Parejo and Baena up against Osasuna’s Torro and Munoz. Villarreal’s forwards, particularly Sorloth, will look to exploit the spaces in Osasuna’s backline. On the flanks, Femenia and Moreno’s overlaps could stretch Osasuna’s defence, creating opportunities for Sorloth and Moreno.
Gameplay Dynamics and Strategic Insights
Osasuna:
Osasuna will aim to control the tempo and disrupt Villarreal’s rhythm. Their focus will be on maintaining defensive solidity while seeking to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. The creativity of Gomez and the finishing ability of Raul Garcia will be pivotal.
Villarreal:
Villarreal will press high and aim to dominate possession. Their attacking setup, with Sorloth and Moreno leading the line, will focus on quick transitions and exploiting Osasuna’s defensive weaknesses. Set-pieces could also play a significant role, given their aerial prowess.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Osasuna:
Strengths: Osasuna’s resilience and recent away victory over Atletico Madrid highlight their potential. Their ability to disrupt opponents’ play and strike on the counter can be effective.
Weaknesses: Defensive lapses and inconsistency at home have been issues. The absence of key players like Ruben Garcia and David Garcia further weakens their setup.
Villarreal:
Strengths: Villarreal’s attacking depth and recent form under Marcelino are significant strengths. Sorloth’s goal-scoring spree adds a potent threat.
Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, as seen in their high-scoring draw with Real Madrid, and inconsistency earlier in the season remain concerns.
Managerial Analysis
Jagoba Arrasate: Arrasate’s tenure at Osasuna has been marked by significant achievements, including promotion and a Copa del Rey final. His tactical acumen and ability to motivate his team have been commendable. However, recent inconsistency and defensive issues highlight areas for improvement.
Marcelino: Marcelino has rejuvenated Villarreal since his return, implementing effective tactics and restoring confidence. His ability to adapt and motivate has been crucial. Nonetheless, the team’s early-season struggles reflect a need for better squad management and consistency.
Expected Goals Analysis and Betting Angles
Osasuna:
Osasuna’s xG (expected goals) of 1.2 per game indicates moderate attacking efficiency. Their xGA (expected goals against) of 1.5 highlights defensive vulnerabilities. Exploiting counter-attacks and set-pieces will be crucial for their success.
Villarreal:
Villarreal’s xG of 1.7 per game showcases their attacking potential, while their xGA of 1.7 indicates a balanced approach with room for defensive improvement. Their attacking depth and Sorloth’s form are key factors.
Predictions
Best Bet: Villarreal to Win and Both Teams to Score
Given Villarreal’s attacking form and Osasuna’s recent defensive lapses, Villarreal are likely to win. However, Osasuna’s ability to score, especially at home, suggests both teams will find the net.
Correct Score: Osasuna 1-3 Villarreal
Villarreal’s superior attacking options and recent form indicate a high-scoring game. Osasuna may score, but Villarreal’s firepower should secure a comfortable win.
Goalscorer: Alexander Sorloth to Score
Sorloth’s impressive form, including four goals against Real Madrid, makes him a strong candidate to score. His positioning and finishing ability are likely to exploit Osasuna’s defensive weaknesses.
Corner Prediction: Villarreal to Win More Corners
Villarreal’s attacking style and high pressing are likely to result in more corners. Osasuna’s defensive setup may concede numerous corners under pressure.
Innovative Market: Total Shots on Target (Villarreal Over 6)
Villarreal’s attacking prowess and high shot volume suggest they will exceed six shots on target. Their recent performances support this market, making it a viable betting angle.
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