Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Predictions

Olympiacos vs Fiorentina predictions ahead of the Europa Conference League final. The Super League side, just 10 miles from AEK Arena, face Italian opponents aiming to avenge last year’s Prague loss. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

Europa Conference League | Final – May 29, 2024 at 8pm UK at AEK Arena

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Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Predictions

Olympiacos and Fiorentina Set for a Thrilling Europa Conference League Final in Athens

As Olympiacos prepare to face Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final in Athens, both teams are poised for what promises to be a thrilling encounter. The stakes are high, and the narratives surrounding both clubs add a layer of intrigue to this showdown. Let’s delve into a detailed analysis of the teams, their tactics, and what we can expect from this match.

Match Context and Recent Form

Olympiacos come into this final on the back of an impressive run in the competition. Having dismantled Aston Villa in the semi-finals with a 6-2 aggregate victory, the Greek giants have shown their mettle against formidable opponents. Earlier rounds saw them edge past Maccabi Tel Aviv and Fenerbahce, showcasing resilience and determination. The appointment of Jose Luis Mendilibar has revitalized the team, culminating in a third-place finish in the Greek Super League and a place in this final.

Fiorentina, meanwhile, have had a slightly tumultuous journey. Last year’s runners-up in this competition, the Italian side are eager to go one step further this time. They boast an unbeaten record in 13 European matches this season, having navigated through the playoff rounds and topping their group. Their path to the final included a dramatic extra-time win over Viktoria Plzen and a late penalty against Club Brugge. Vincenzo Italiano’s side finished eighth in Serie A, and this final represents a chance to salvage their season with silverware.

Team Analysis and Expected Lineups

Olympiacos’ Setup:

• Goalkeeper: Konstantinos Tzolakis
• Defenders: Rodinei, Panagiotis Retsos, David Carmo, Quini
• Midfielders: Santiago Hezze, Vicente Iborra, Kostas Fortounis, Chiquinho, Daniel Podence
• Forward: Ayoub El Kaabi

Olympiacos are expected to line up in a solid 4-2-3-1 formation. Tzolakis will be guarded by a back four featuring the experienced Rodinei and Retsos. The midfield duo of Hezze and Iborra will provide the necessary defensive cover, allowing Fortounis, Chiquinho, and Podence to support El Kaabi upfront. El Kaabi, with 15 goals in continental competition this season, will be the focal point of their attack.

Fiorentina’s Setup:

• Goalkeeper: Pietro Terracciano
• Defenders: Dodo, Nikola Milenkovic, Lucas Martinez Quarta, Cristiano Biraghi
• Midfielders: Arthur, Rolando Mandragora, Nico Gonzalez, Lucas Beltran, Christian Kouame
• Forward: M’Bala Nzola

Fiorentina are likely to adopt a flexible 4-3-3 system. Terracciano will start in goal, behind a defence anchored by Milenkovic and Quarta. The midfield trio of Arthur, Mandragora, and Gonzalez will aim to control possession and dictate play. Upfront, the dynamic Beltran and Kouame will flank Nzola, who will be expected to spearhead the attack.

Tactical Analysis

Olympiacos’ strategy will likely focus on solid defensive organisation and quick transitions. Under Mendilibar, they have been effective in exploiting spaces behind the opposition’s defence, particularly through the pace and creativity of Podence and Fortounis. El Kaabi’s clinical finishing has been a standout feature, making him a constant threat.

Fiorentina, on the other hand, will look to control the game through their midfield. Italiano’s side are known for their possession-based approach, often dominating the ball and creating numerous chances. Their weakness, however, lies in their defensive fragility, having kept only five clean sheets in their last 27 matches.

Key Player Duels

• Ayoub El Kaabi vs. Nikola Milenkovic: El Kaabi’s goal-scoring prowess will test Milenkovic’s defensive acumen. If El Kaabi can find space, he could be pivotal in breaking down Fiorentina’s defence.
• Kostas Fortounis vs. Rolando Mandragora: The midfield battle between Fortounis and Mandragora will be crucial. Fortounis’ creativity against Mandragora’s defensive skills could determine control in the midfield.

Game Flow Prediction

Given the attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, the match is likely to be open and high-scoring. Olympiacos’ home advantage and their efficiency in transition could see them strike first, but Fiorentina’s possession play and attacking depth mean they are likely to respond. An end-to-end contest with both teams creating numerous chances is expected.

Key Takeaways

1. Olympiacos’ Home Advantage: Playing in Athens provides Olympiacos with a unique edge, though the pressure is equally high.
2. Fiorentina’s Attacking Depth: The Italian side’s ability to create and convert chances makes them a formidable opponent.
3. Key Duels: Individual battles, particularly in defence and midfield, will significantly influence the match dynamics.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Olympiacos

Olympiacos have displayed a dynamic offensive approach, particularly under the guidance of Jose Luis Mendilibar. Their strategy revolves around quick transitions and exploiting spaces behind the opposition’s defence. Ayoub El Kaabi has been pivotal in this system, leading the attack with his clinical finishing and intelligent positioning. His 15 goals in continental competitions underscore his importance.

Defensively, Olympiacos focus on maintaining a compact structure, relying on the experienced Panagiotis Retsos and David Carmo to thwart attacks. This approach was evident in their semi-final against Aston Villa, where they absorbed pressure and launched effective counter-attacks. The midfield duo of Santiago Hezze and Vicente Iborra adds a layer of protection, breaking up play and initiating transitions.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina, under Vincenzo Italiano, adopt a possession-based style, aiming to control the game through midfield dominance. Players like Arthur and Rolando Mandragora are crucial, orchestrating play and ensuring fluid ball movement. The wide players, Nico Gonzalez and Christian Kouame, stretch the opposition, creating spaces for Lucas Beltran and M’Bala Nzola to exploit.

Defensively, Fiorentina have been vulnerable, with only five clean sheets in their last 27 matches. This inconsistency at the back is a concern, especially against a potent Olympiacos attack. Their reliance on outscoring opponents rather than securing defensive solidity could be a double-edged sword in a high-stakes final.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Ayoub El Kaabi (Olympiacos)

El Kaabi has been sensational, scoring crucial goals that propelled Olympiacos to the final. His ability to find the net consistently, even against strong defences like Aston Villa’s, makes him the focal point of Olympiacos’ attack. His movement off the ball and finishing are his standout attributes.

Nico Gonzalez (Fiorentina)

Gonzalez has been a creative force for Fiorentina, contributing significantly to their attacking play. His dribbling, vision, and ability to score crucial goals highlight his importance. With four goals in this competition, he remains a constant threat on the wing.

Panagiotis Retsos (Olympiacos)

Retsos has been solid at the back for Olympiacos, providing leadership and stability. His performances have been critical in key matches, often making decisive interceptions and tackles.

Lucas Beltran (Fiorentina)

Beltran’s contribution in the knockout stages has been vital, particularly his late penalty against Club Brugge. His ability to score in crucial moments adds a significant dimension to Fiorentina’s attack.

Impact of Management

Jose Luis Mendilibar (Olympiacos)

Mendilibar’s appointment has revitalised Olympiacos. His tactical acumen and ability to instil discipline and belief in his players have been evident. The turnaround since his arrival, leading them to the final, speaks volumes about his impact. His strategy of resilient defence combined with swift counter-attacks has been effective.

Vincenzo Italiano (Fiorentina)

Italiano’s tenure at Fiorentina has been marked by tactical flexibility and an attacking mindset. However, his inability to secure defensive stability raises questions about his approach in high-stakes matches. The back-to-back final losses in domestic and European competitions highlight a potential shortcoming in managing pressure situations. This final offers him a chance to prove his critics wrong, but doubts remain about his capacity to succeed on the big stage.

Expected Goals Analysis

Olympiacos have averaged 2.2 goals per game in the Stoiximan Super League, reflecting their potent attack. El Kaabi’s contributions have been crucial, with the team often creating high-quality chances through quick transitions. Their xG (expected goals) in the Europa Conference League has been impressive, underscoring their efficiency in front of goal.

Fiorentina, with 1.6 goals per game in Serie A, have shown their ability to score, though their defensive xGA (expected goals against) indicates vulnerabilities. Their possession-based style generates numerous chances, but the defensive lapses have often been costly.

Comparative Analysis

Tactics

Olympiacos’ counter-attacking strategy contrasts sharply with Fiorentina’s possession game. Olympiacos rely on quick breaks and efficient finishing, while Fiorentina aim to dominate possession and create through midfield play. This tactical clash will be fascinating, with Olympiacos’ defensive solidity potentially nullifying Fiorentina’s ball control.

Player Performances

El Kaabi and Gonzalez are pivotal for their respective teams. El Kaabi’s goal-scoring prowess gives Olympiacos an edge in converting chances, while Gonzalez’s creativity is central to Fiorentina’s attack. Defensively, Retsos provides Olympiacos with stability, whereas Fiorentina’s backline, led by Milenkovic and Quarta, needs to step up.

Overall Success

Olympiacos’ journey to the final has been marked by resilience and tactical discipline. Fiorentina, despite their attacking flair, have shown defensive frailties. Olympiacos’ ability to perform under pressure, evidenced by their victories over strong teams like Aston Villa, contrasts with Fiorentina’s inconsistency in crucial matches.

Suggestions for Improvement

Olympiacos

To enhance their chances, Olympiacos need to maintain their defensive solidity while ensuring support for El Kaabi. Strengthening midfield transitions and ensuring that players like Podence and Fortounis deliver consistent performances will be crucial. They must avoid complacency and maintain focus throughout the match.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina must address their defensive weaknesses. Italiano needs to instil greater discipline and ensure his backline remains compact. Balancing their attacking ambitions with defensive responsibilities will be key. Improving coordination between midfield and defence could help mitigate the risks of counter-attacks from Olympiacos.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Olympiacos

Their strength lies in their resilient defence and efficient counter-attacks. El Kaabi’s form adds a significant goal-scoring threat. However, they can be prone to lapses in concentration, which must be avoided in a high-stakes final.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina’s strength is their attacking play, with creative players capable of breaking down defences. Their weakness is clearly their defence, which has struggled to maintain clean sheets. This inconsistency could be their downfall if not addressed.

Managerial Criticism

While Mendilibar has been praised for his turnaround at Olympiacos, Italiano’s management at Fiorentina has been more contentious. Despite his tactical knowledge, his inability to secure defensive solidity and win finals raises questions. His record of losing key matches indicates a possible flaw in handling high-pressure situations. This final is a critical test of his managerial capabilities.

Predictions

Best Bet: Draw and Both Teams to Score

The Europa Conference League final between Olympiacos and Fiorentina is poised to be an open and competitive affair. Both teams have displayed attacking prowess throughout the competition, but their defensive records suggest vulnerabilities that could be exploited. Olympiacos, buoyed by their home advantage, have consistently found the net, particularly through their star striker Ayoub El Kaabi.

Meanwhile, Fiorentina’s attacking trio, led by Nico Gonzalez and supported by the creativity of players like Lucas Beltran, ensures they will also be a significant threat going forward. Given these factors, a draw with both teams scoring appears to be the most likely outcome, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both sides.

Correct Score Prediction: Olympiacos 2-2 Fiorentina

Considering the attacking capabilities and defensive lapses of both teams, a 2-2 draw seems a plausible outcome. Olympiacos have been prolific in front of goal, especially at home, and El Kaabi’s form is a crucial factor. Fiorentina, despite their defensive issues, have the firepower to score against any defence, evidenced by their impressive European campaign.

The balance between Olympiacos’ home advantage and Fiorentina’s offensive depth suggests a high-scoring draw, aligning well with the prediction that both teams will score.

Goalscorer Prediction: Ayoub El Kaabi to Score

Ayoub El Kaabi has been a standout performer for Olympiacos in the Europa Conference League, scoring 15 goals to lead the competition. His knack for being in the right place at the right time, combined with his clinical finishing, makes him a constant threat to any defence. Given Fiorentina’s tendency to concede goals and El Kaabi’s excellent form, he is highly likely to find the back of the net at least once in this final. His ability to score in crucial moments will be key for Olympiacos.

Corner Prediction: Fiorentina to Win More Corners

Fiorentina’s style of play, which focuses on maintaining possession and pushing forward, often results in a high number of corners. Their attacking intent and frequent attempts to break down defences from the wings typically lead to several corner kicks.

Olympiacos, while dangerous on the counter-attack, are likely to concede corners as they defend against Fiorentina’s forward pressure. Given these dynamics, Fiorentina are expected to win more corners during the match.

Shot on Target Prediction: Nico Gonzalez to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Nico Gonzalez, a pivotal figure in Fiorentina’s attacking lineup, has a knack for creating and taking shots on goal. His positioning and ability to find space make him a regular threat to opposition goalkeepers. Considering Olympiacos’ defensive setup and the expected flow of the game, Gonzalez is likely to have at least one shot on target. His role in the attacking third ensures that he will be actively seeking opportunities to test the Olympiacos goalkeeper.

Yellow Card Prediction: Panagiotis Retsos to Receive a Yellow Card

Panagiotis Retsos, a key defender for Olympiacos, will be tasked with handling Fiorentina’s dynamic forwards. His aggressive style of defending, coupled with the high stakes of the final, increases the likelihood of him committing fouls. Given Fiorentina’s attacking threats and the pressure Retsos will be under, it’s plausible he will receive a yellow card as he attempts to disrupt Fiorentina’s offensive plays. His physical approach in crucial matches often results in bookings.

Assist Prediction: Daniel Podence to Provide an Assist

Daniel Podence’s creativity and vision have been vital for Olympiacos this season. His ability to deliver precise passes and create scoring opportunities for his teammates makes him a strong candidate for providing an assist in this match.

With El Kaabi’s prolific scoring form and Podence’s role in orchestrating attacks, it’s likely that Podence will set up at least one goal. His understanding with the forwards and his positioning in the attacking third make him instrumental in breaking down Fiorentina’s defence.

Innovative Bet: Over 10.5 Corners

Given the attacking nature and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, the match is likely to feature numerous corners. Olympiacos’ strategy of quick counter-attacks and Fiorentina’s possession-based approach will both contribute to a high corner count.

Olympiacos’ tendency to force corners through their rapid transitions and Fiorentina’s frequent forays into the final third suggest that over 10.5 corners is a realistic and attractive bet. This market is supported by the playing styles and match dynamics expected in this final.

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