OGC Nice v Paris Saint-Germain predictions for this this Ligue 1 match. Nice aims to enhance Champions League qualification chances hosting PSG in a rescheduled Ligue 1 fixture at Allianz Riviera. Read on for our free betting tips and match preview.
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 32 – May 15, 2024 at 8pm UK at Allianz Riviera
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Nice vs PSG Predictions
High Stakes at the Allianz Riviera: Can Nice Derail PSG’s Unbeaten Away Run?
Key Stats
– Nice have kept 17 clean sheets in 32 matches, showcasing their defensive prowess.
– PSG have scored 77 goals this season, averaging 2.4 goals per game.
– Terem Moffi and Jérémie Boga have been pivotal for Nice, combining for 17 goals this season.
As Nice prepare to host Paris Saint-Germain in a rescheduled Ligue 1 fixture at the Allianz Riviera, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Nice are battling to secure a spot in European competition next season, while PSG, already crowned champions, are eager to finish their league campaign on a high. This encounter promises to be a thrilling contest with significant implications for both sides.
Match Preview
Nice’s season has been a rollercoaster, characterised by a prolonged dip in form that saw them slide from title contenders to fifth place. However, Francesco Farioli’s men have recently rediscovered their mojo, securing three victories in their last five matches, including a notable improvement in defensive solidity. With just two games left, including a challenging fixture against third-placed Lille, Nice must capitalise on this match to enhance their Champions League qualification hopes.
In contrast, PSG have experienced a tumultuous few weeks. After being eliminated from the Champions League by Borussia Dortmund, they suffered a rare Ligue 1 defeat to Toulouse, marking Kylian Mbappe’s final home appearance before his expected move to Real Madrid. Despite these setbacks, PSG remain unbeaten on the road this season, a record they will be keen to maintain as they aim to end the season on a positive note ahead of the Coupe de France final.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Nice:
- Injuries: Alexis Beka Beka, Sofiane Diop, Valentin Rosier
- Suspension: None
- Expected Lineup: Bulka; Mendy, Todibo, Dante, Bard; Sanson, Rosario, Thuram; Boga, Moffi, Cho
Despite a lacklustre goal-scoring record recently, Terem Moffi will relish the opportunity to face PSG again, having excelled in the reverse fixture. Key injuries include Alexis Beka Beka, Sofiane Diop, and Valentin Rosier, limiting Farioli’s options. However, the core defensive setup featuring Todibo and Dante has been resilient.
Paris Saint-Germain:
- Injuries: Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa, Sergio Rico, Lucas Hernandez
- Suspension: None
- Expected Lineup: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Ruiz; Dembele, Mbappe, Barcola
PSG are likely to field a strong lineup despite their recent Champions League exit and league title win. Marquinhos, Achraf Hakimi, Fabian Ruiz, and Ousmane Dembele are expected to return to the starting XI, aiming to provide stability and creativity. Kylian Mbappe, in potentially one of his last games for PSG, will be pivotal in their attacking efforts.
Tactical Analysis
Nice: Nice are expected to adopt a 4-3-3 formation, focusing on a balanced approach that emphasises both defensive solidity and attacking prowess. The defensive line, marshalled by experienced centre-backs Dante and Todibo, will be crucial in neutralising PSG’s formidable attack. In midfield, Khéphren Thuram and Morgan Sanson will aim to control the tempo and provide support for the front three, with Terem Moffi being the focal point of their offensive play.
Paris Saint-Germain: PSG will likely utilise a 4-3-3 formation, looking to dominate possession and exploit the pace and skill of their forward line. The dynamic trio of Mbappe, Dembele, and Barcola will be tasked with breaking down Nice’s defence, while the midfield trio of Vitinha, Ruiz, and Zaire-Emery will focus on controlling the game and creating opportunities.
Key Duels
Terem Moffi vs. Marquinhos: Moffi, Nice’s leading scorer, will be a constant threat to PSG’s defence. His physicality and positioning will test Marquinhos, who must use his experience and leadership to contain the Nigerian forward.
Khéphren Thuram vs. Vitinha: Thuram’s box-to-box energy and ball-winning capabilities will be vital in midfield. He faces a tough challenge in Vitinha, whose creative playmaking and passing range can unlock defences. This midfield battle will be crucial in determining which team controls the game’s tempo.
Expected Gameplay
Given their strong home form and recent resurgence, Nice are likely to start aggressively, aiming to take the game to PSG. They will focus on a compact defensive structure, looking to hit PSG on the counter-attack with the pace of Moffi and the creativity of Boga and Cho. PSG, on the other hand, will seek to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities through their star-studded forward line. The outcome may hinge on Nice’s ability to withstand PSG’s pressure and exploit any defensive lapses.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Nice:
- Strengths: Defensive organisation, home form, counter-attacking ability. Their recent clean sheets demonstrate improved defensive resilience.
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent goal-scoring, reliance on key players. Injuries to key midfielders could impact their ability to control the game.
Paris Saint-Germain:
- Strengths: Depth of talent, offensive firepower, experience in big games. Mbappe’s goal-scoring prowess and Dembele’s creativity are significant assets.
- Weaknesses: Defensive lapses, recent form, potential distractions due to upcoming transfers and off-field issues. Recent losses have exposed vulnerabilities.
Managerial Analysis
Francesco Farioli: Farioli has done well to stabilise Nice’s season after a rough patch. His focus on defensive organisation and structured play has paid dividends recently. However, his tactical flexibility will be tested against PSG’s superior individual quality.
Luis Enrique: Enrique’s tenure at PSG has been marked by high expectations and significant scrutiny. While securing the league title is an achievement, repeated failures in Europe and recent domestic setbacks have raised questions about his ability to manage PSG’s array of talents effectively. His tactics and team selection for this match will be crucial.
Expected Goals Analysis
Nice: Nice have scored 37 goals in 32 matches, averaging 1.2 goals per game. Their recent improvement in form and defensive solidity, with 17 clean sheets, highlight their ability to grind out results.
Paris Saint-Germain: PSG have netted 77 goals in 32 matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game. Their attacking prowess is clear, but recent defensive frailties have been a concern, conceding 32 goals and showing vulnerability under pressure.
Betting Angles and Predictions
Based on the analysis, here are the four predictions for the match:
Best Bet: Nice/Draw Double Chance
Rationale: Given Nice’s strong home form, a double chance bet covers both outcomes effectively. PSG have been resilient on the road, but Nice’s recent resurgence makes them capable of securing at least a draw.
Correct Score Prediction: Nice 2-1 PSG
Rationale: Nice’s defensive solidity and motivation to secure European qualification can lead to a narrow victory. PSG’s recent form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest they might concede more than usual. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Nice’s home advantage and PSG’s potential to score.
Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappe to Score
Rationale: Mbappe remains PSG’s primary attacking threat, with 27 goals this season. His pace, positioning, and finishing ability make him a constant danger. Despite PSG’s form, Mbappe is likely to find the net given his consistency.
First Half Result: Draw
Rationale: Both teams are likely to start cautiously, with Nice focusing on defence and PSG controlling possession. This balanced approach may result in a stalemate at halftime, with both sides looking to avoid early mistakes and build into the game.
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