Newcastle vs AC Milan predictions for Wednesday’s Champions League clash. The passionate fans at St James’ Park will proudly wear their black and white scarves when Newcastle United and AC Milan battle for the opportunity to advance to the knockout rounds. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Match Live Wednesday, 13th December at 8:00 pm In:
Newcastle vs AC Milan Predictions
[wptb id="393902" not found ]A Night of High Stakes at St James’ Park: Newcastle vs AC Milan
Key Stats
– Milan have failed to score in four of their last five Champions League away games.
– Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in six of their last nine games at St James’ Park.
As the Champions League group stages reach their crescendo, St James’ Park prepares for a pivotal showdown between Newcastle United and AC Milan. Both teams, knotted at five points in Group F, are not only battling for supremacy but also keeping an eye on the PSG-Dortmund result, which could seal their fate in European competition.
Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match
BEST VALUE BET £20 Returns £39   Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Best Value Bet Rationale
Almiron, with an average BettingTips4You Expert Rating of 6.99, has been a consistent performer for Newcastle United this season. His contribution is not just limited to goals; his overall play, including creating chances and assisting, makes him a key component of the Magpies’ attack. His scoring frequency, although averaging at 548 minutes per goal, doesn’t quite encapsulate his potential threat in front of goal. This is particularly pertinent considering Newcastle’s solid home form this season, where they have won eight of their last nine games. The Magpies’ offensive strategy heavily relies on exploiting the flanks and delivering crosses into the box, a scenario where Almiron often finds himself in promising positions.
Milan’s recent defensive struggles, especially in away games where they have conceded 10 goals in recent matches, further bolster the argument for Almiron as a potential first goalscorer. The Rossoneri’s shaky defense, coupled with the absence of key defenders, could be exploited by a quick and agile player like Almiron, who is adept at finding pockets of space in and around the penalty area.
Furthermore, Almiron’s tendency to take shots, averaging 1.5 per game with 0.5 on target, indicates his willingness to test the goalkeeper, an essential trait for any potential first goalscorer.
Given these factors, the enhanced odds for Almiron to open the scoring seem like a bet of considerable value, encapsulating both the player’s capabilities and the current dynamics of both teams.
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Strategic Overview: Newcastle’s Home Advantage vs Milan’s European Pedigree
Newcastle United: Capitalising on Home Strength
Newcastle’s remarkable home form has been the backbone of their European campaign. Under Eddie Howe’s stewardship, they have transformed St James’ Park into a fortress, with an impressive record of eight wins in their last nine home games. This resilience at home, combined with the energetic support of the Toon Army, gives Newcastle a psychological edge.
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AC Milan: Seeking Redemption on the Road
Conversely, Milan’s woes in away matches, particularly in the Champions League where they have failed to score in four of their last five, present a challenge. Stefano Pioli’s side must overturn their travel sickness and rediscover the form that took them to the semifinals last season.
Tactical Battles and Key Players
The game could pivot on the battle between Newcastle’s solid defence and Milan’s struggling forward line. Alexander Isak’s presence upfront for Newcastle, coupled with Milan’s defensive vulnerabilities, could be decisive. Milan will rely heavily on Rafael Leao’s creativity and Olivier Giroud’s experience to penetrate Newcastle’s backline.
Improvement Areas and Managerial Analysis
Newcastle United: Addressing Injury Woes
Howe’s ability to navigate through an injury crisis has been commendable. However, the absence of key players like Sven Botman and Harvey Barnes means the Magpies must maintain their tactical discipline and efficiency in front of goal.
AC Milan: Overcoming Away Game Hurdles
Pioli faces the challenge of uplifting Milan’s away performance. The Rossoneri must find a balance between defensive solidity and attacking flair to overcome their recent lacklustre displays on the road.
Expected Line-ups and Impact
Newcastle United: Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Livramento; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
- This lineup suggests a balanced approach, with Trippier and Almiron providing width and creativity.
AC Milan: Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Hernandez, Florenzi; Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Musah; Chukwueze, Giroud, Leao
- Milan’s lineup indicates a mix of experience and youth, with Leao’s flair being crucial.
Tactical Analysis: Deep Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Newcastle United: Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have crafted a style that marries robust defensive tactics with swift counter-attacks. They exhibit a pragmatic approach, emphasising solidity at the back with the likes of Schar and Lascelles, and relying on Trippier’s crosses and Almiron’s pace on the flanks. In attack, Isak’s clinical finishing is pivotal. However, their recent Premier League woes, losing 7-1 on aggregate, raise questions about their defensive resilience and adaptability under pressure.
AC Milan: Stefano Pioli’s Milan, despite their illustrious history, currently navigate through a tactical conundrum. They traditionally favour an aggressive, high-pressing game, with Hernandez and Calabria pushing up as wing-backs and Giroud providing a strong aerial threat. However, their recent inability to maintain a consistent defensive line, evident in the 10 goals conceded in away games, reflects a vulnerability that Newcastle could exploit.
Key Player Performances
Newcastle’s Alexander Isak stands out for his goal-scoring prowess, but consistency is key. Joelinton and Guimaraes in midfield need to dominate the game’s tempo to counter Milan’s midfield maestros.
Milan’s Olivier Giroud is a vital cog in their attacking machine, with his experience and goal-scoring knack. However, their main threat could be Rafael Leao, whose pace and dribbling can unsettle Newcastle’s defence.
Impact of Management
Eddie Howe has impressively instilled a fighting spirit in Newcastle, making them formidable at home. His ability to navigate through injury crises speaks volumes of his managerial acumen. Yet, questions linger about his tactical flexibility in high-stake games.
Stefano Pioli’s tenure at Milan has seen highs and lows. His aggressive style has brought success but also left them exposed in defense. His challenge lies in balancing attacking flair with defensive solidity, especially in away fixtures.
Analysis on Expected Goals
Both teams have demonstrated a proclivity to create chances. Newcastle’s expected goals (xG) reflect their ability to score from varied situations, especially at home. Milan, on the other hand, despite creating chances, have struggled to convert them, particularly in away games, as evidenced in their lower xG in those fixtures.
Tactical Comparison
Newcastle and Milan diverge tactically. Newcastle’s strength lies in their defensive organisation and counter-attacking prowess, making them lethal at home. Milan’s approach is more about possession and pressing, but their defensive vulnerabilities, especially in away games, are a glaring issue.
Suggestions for Improvement
Newcastle need to enhance their ability to control games, especially against teams that dominate possession. Improving their midfield dynamism could be key.
Milan must address their defensive lapses. Perhaps a more conservative approach in away games could yield better defensive stability.
Pros and Cons of Strategies
Newcastle’s Pros: Solid defence, effective counter-attacks. Cons: Over-reliance on counter-attacks, struggles against possession-based teams.
Milan’s Pros: High-pressing, attacking football. Cons: Defensive frailties, inconsistency in away performances.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Managers
Eddie Howe: Praised for building a resilient team, yet criticised for lack of tactical diversity in challenging fixtures.
Stefano Pioli: Acclaimed for his attacking philosophy but heavily criticised for failing to adapt defensively in crucial away games. His inability to tweak his high-pressing style has often cost Milan, especially in European away fixtures.
Predictions and Insights
1. Match Outcome: Newcastle to Win
Given Newcastle United’s formidable record at St James’ Park, where they have clinched eight out of their last nine games, the odds are in their favour. Despite AC Milan’s storied history in European competition, their recent form, especially in away games, raises concerns. Newcastle’s ability to perform under pressure, combined with their home ground advantage, makes them a strong contender for a win in this critical Group F clash.
2. Correct Score: Newcastle United 2-1 AC Milan
Anticipating a tightly contested battle, a 2-1 victory for Newcastle seems plausible. The Magpies have demonstrated a knack for scoring at home, while Milan’s defensive frailties, particularly in away matches, suggest they might concede a couple of goals. However, Milan’s attacking talent could see them finding the back of the net, leading to a narrow win for the home side.
3. Goalscorer: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, with his sharp attacking instincts and clinical finishing, is a strong candidate to score. Milan’s somewhat shaky defence on the road could be exploited by Isak’s prowess in the final third. His form and position as Newcastle’s focal point in attack further bolster his chances of getting on the scoresheet.
4. Corner Prediction: Newcastle to Get More Corners; Total Corners Over 9
Newcastle’s attacking approach, especially at home, often results in numerous corner opportunities. Coupled with Milan’s defensive strategy, which might lead to them conceding corners under pressure, it’s likely that Newcastle will earn more corners. Expecting an open game with both teams pushing forward, the total number of corners could exceed nine.
5. Shot on Target: Rafael Leao
Rafael Leao’s flair for creating and taking chances makes him a probable candidate for registering at least one shot on target. His speed and dribbling ability allow him to create shooting opportunities, and given the high stakes of the game, Leao will likely be at the forefront of Milan’s offensive endeavours.
6. Yellow Card: Theo Hernandez
Theo Hernandez, known for his aggressive style of play and defensive duties, is likely to receive a yellow card. In a high-intensity match where both teams are vying for a crucial win, Hernandez’s role in stopping Newcastle’s wingers could see him committing tactical fouls, increasing the likelihood of a booking.
7. Assist: Kieran Trippier
Kieran Trippier, with his exceptional crossing ability and set-piece prowess, stands out as a likely candidate to provide an assist. His delivery from wide areas and dead-ball situations has been instrumental for Newcastle, making him a key player in creating goal-scoring opportunities.
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