Netherlands vs Italy Predictions

Netherlands vs Italy predictions for Sunday’s Nations League 3rd place play-off at FC Twente Stadion in Enschede. Netherlands and Italy are trying to get at least the bronze medal after suffering defeats in the semifinals. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Match Live Sunday, 18th June at 2:00 pm In:

Netherlands vs Italy Predictions

Battle for Bronze: Netherlands and Italy’s Clash for Pride at the UEFA Nations League

Key Stats
– Dutch Dominance: The Netherlands have dominated their games with an average ball possession of 54.9%, compared to Italy’s 42%. They have also netted 16 goals in 7 games with an impressive 2.3 goals per game average.
– Italian Caution: Italy have collected 2.1 yellow cards per game
– High-Octane Oranje: With 2.3 big chances created per game and an average of 4.3 corners, the Netherlands show their knack for threatening the opposition goal, in contrast to Italy’s 1.7 big chances and 3.7 corners per game.

As the sun sets on an arduous season, two European heavyweights, the Netherlands and Italy, find themselves in the unenviable position of contesting the third-place playoff at the UEFA Nations League. After failing to reach the coveted finals, both sides will be aiming to end their campaign on a high note this Sunday in Enschede.

The Netherlands were notably impressive in the group stage, amassing a noteworthy 16 out of a possible 18 points against formidable opponents – Belgium, Poland, and Wales. This stellar performance raised the prospect of the Oranje laying hands on a rare international trophy, especially with the advantage of being the finals’ hosts.

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However, the Netherlands were unable to maintain their momentum into the semi-finals, where they succumbed to a tactically superior Croatian side, despite pushing the match into extra time. A disappointing return for Ronald Koeman, the Netherlands’ coach, whose stint has seen both triumphant wins and disheartening losses, with an emphasis on the latter. The upcoming match holds significant weight, a chance for Koeman to remedy the recent failures and build positive momentum ahead of the Euro 2024 qualifiers against Greece and the Republic of Ireland.

On the other hand, the reigning European champions Italy find themselves in a similar predicament. Their defeat to Spain, for the second successive season, confirmed their absence in the Nations League final. Italy’s recent performances under Roberto Mancini reveal a trend of instability, highlighted by losses to Austria, England, and a harsh 5-2 defeat to Germany in the Nations League group stage.

A game of pride and consolation, the third-place playoff may not hold the glimmer of the final but represents a much-needed opportunity for both teams to restore some faith among their supporters and provide a platform to launch into the upcoming season.

Assessing the Line-up Changes and Strategies

A review of the line-ups suggests possible changes from both teams. The Netherlands’ underwhelming offensive display against Croatia might prompt Koeman to consider players like Wout Weghorst or Steven Bergwijn for a starting berth, potentially offering more goal-scoring prowess. On Italy’s side, Mancini may revise his 3-5-2 setup and return to his traditional 4-3-3 formation. Argentina’s Mateo Retegui could potentially find himself leading the Azzurri’s attack, with Wilfried Gnonto and Giacomo Raspadori waiting in the wings.

Statistics: Laying Down the Numbers

An examination of both teams’ recent performances reveals interesting patterns. The Netherlands, with an average of 2.3 goals per game, boasts a formidable offensive force. However, their defence has been a weak point, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. On the contrary, Italy have been more balanced, scoring and conceding 1.3 goals per game. However, Italy’s yellow card average of 2.1 per game, coupled with their relatively lower possession rate of 42%, indicates a tendency towards a more physical and less ball-dominant style.

Key Players: Who to Watch Out For

Frenkie de Jong, the midfield engine for the Netherlands, will undoubtedly be a key figure to watch. His creative passing, composure under pressure, and defensive abilities make him a threat to any team. He will be crucial in setting the pace for the Oranje and unlocking Italy’s defence.

For Italy, Nicolo Barella, with his relentless energy and goal-scoring knack, could prove instrumental. Known for his ability to drive forward with the ball, Barella might just be the catalyst Italy needs to bypass the Netherlands’ defence.

Predictions: Analysing the Outcome

These statistics and the teams’ recent form lend themselves to some intriguing predictions. Based on the Netherlands’ attacking prowess and Italy’s relative defensive instability, it is plausible to anticipate a win for the Oranje. Additionally, considering Italy’s higher average of yellow cards, the Azzurri are likely to finish the match with the most bookings.

With the Netherlands’ propensity for corner kicks at 4.3 per game compared to Italy’s 3.7, the Oranje is predicted to earn the majority of the corners as well. Putting together all these considerations, we can try to get an advantage from a William Hill Bet Builder which returns a very interesting 17/2 for Netherlands To Win, Italy Most Cards & Netherlands Most Corners. 

A Battle for Redemption

In the grand scheme of football history, a third-place finish in the UEFA Nations League might not mean much, especially for two nations with illustrious footballing pedigrees like the Netherlands and Italy. But given the context, with both teams under pressure to perform and restore faith, this match has added significance.

For the Netherlands, a win would help mend the wounds inflicted by their semi-final defeat and affirm Koeman’s strategy. For Italy, a victory would provide a much-needed boost to morale after their recent run of instability and prove they remain a force to be reckoned with on the European stage.

In the end, while only one team can claim victory, both will be aiming to end their Nations League campaign on a positive note. After all, it’s not just about where you finish, but how you recover, adapt, and prepare for the battles ahead. This is a test of character, a test of resolve, and a stepping stone towards future success. I do expect a close affair but with the home advantage I am leaning towards the Netherlands to prevail 3-1 in the correct score market, also considering the many changes both teams are likely to make. 

Let’s delve into the data that supports this prediction.

Firstly, we need to consider the Netherlands’ potent attack. They have been striking with an average of 2.3 goals per game throughout the Nations League, a clear testament to their offensive strength. The Dutch side has a dynamic forward line capable of tormenting the best defences. The likes of Wout Weghorst and Steven Bergwijn, who may be called into action, are a handful for any defence. This offensive power, coupled with Italy’s recent vulnerability at the back, provides a significant indication that the Dutch could net three goals.

On the other hand, Italy’s attacking prowess cannot be overlooked. Despite their struggles, they have managed to score in six of their last eight away games. Their veteran forwards like Ciro Immobile and emerging talents like Mateo Retegui have demonstrated they can deliver goals when it matters. Hence, it’s plausible to expect Italy to grab a consolation goal despite the Dutch dominance.

Moreover, the Netherlands’ defence hasn’t been entirely airtight. They’ve conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game during the Nations League. The experienced Italian forwards might exploit this and add a goal to the tally.

Overall, combining the Netherlands’ striking power, Italy’s scoring ability, the home advantage and the slight vulnerability in the Dutch defence, a 3-1 scoreline in favour of the Netherlands appears to be a justified prediction.

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!