Netherlands vs France Predictions


Netherlands vs France predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. Netherlands and France clash at Red Bull Arena on Friday, with both vying for last-16 Euro 2024 progression. Continue reading below for all our free tips and predictions.


European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 21, 2024 at 8pm UK at Red Bull Arena

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Netherlands vs France Predictions

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Key Stats

– The Netherlands have won seven of their last eight matches, highlighting their strong form coming into this clash.

– France have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches, showcasing their defensive solidity.

– Both teams combined have averaged nearly 14 corners per game in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, indicating a high number of set-piece opportunities in this match.

Will Defence or Offence Prevail in the Euro 2024 Clash Between Netherlands and France?

As Euro 2024 progresses, a highly anticipated Group D encounter between the Netherlands and France at the Red Bull Arena is set to captivate football enthusiasts. Both teams secured narrow victories in their opening matches, setting the stage for a pivotal clash that could determine the group’s pecking order. The absence of key players and tactical adjustments will undoubtedly influence the outcome of this match.

Team Analysis


Ronald Koeman’s side showed resilience in their 2-1 victory over Poland, coming from behind to clinch three crucial points. Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst were instrumental, scoring the goals that turned the tide. The Netherlands have demonstrated their offensive prowess, notably with a series of high-scoring friendly wins against Canada and Iceland, each ending 4-0. However, their defensive capabilities will be sternly tested by the French attack.

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The Dutch lineup, featuring Verbruggen in goal and a solid defensive line comprising Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, and Aké, offers a balanced mix of experience and youthful energy. In midfield, Schouten and Veerman are expected to provide the necessary support, with Veerman’s potential suspension looming over the tactical decisions. Up front, Depay will lead the line, supported by the creative Simons, Reijnders, and the ever-dangerous Gakpo.


France’s narrow 1-0 win over Austria, courtesy of an own goal, was marred by the injury to their talisman Kylian MbappĂ©. His absence is a significant blow to Didier Deschamps’s plans, as Mbappé’s pace and skill were pivotal in their 4-0 demolition of the Netherlands during the qualifiers. Nonetheless, France’s squad depth is impressive, with players like Olivier Giroud, who will likely start despite some groin discomfort, ready to step up.

The French defence, marshalled by Maignan in goal, along with Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, and Hernandez, has been formidable, securing three consecutive clean sheets. In midfield, Kante’s experience and Rabiot’s versatility will be crucial. The attacking trio of Dembele, Griezmann, and Thuram will need to find ways to penetrate the Dutch defence in the absence of Mbappé.

Tactical Overview

Koeman’s tactical flexibility has been evident, with the ability to switch between formations to exploit opponents’ weaknesses. The Netherlands will likely adopt an aggressive approach, pressing high and using their pace on the wings to stretch France’s defence. Depay’s role will be critical in creating space for Gakpo and Simons to exploit.

Deschamps, on the other hand, might opt for a more conservative strategy, focusing on maintaining their defensive solidity while seeking to capitalize on counter-attacks. Griezmann’s creativity and Giroud’s aerial presence will be vital in breaking down the Dutch defence.

Expected Lineups

Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Aké; Schouten, Veerman; Simons, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay

France: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Thuram; Giroud

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive


Offensive and Defensive Strategies

The Netherlands and France, both footballing giants, have distinct strategies when it comes to offensive and defensive play. Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands rely heavily on their attacking prowess, often utilising a high press to disrupt the opposition. This was evident in their match against Poland, where they managed 21 shots.

The front trio of Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, and Xavi Simons is integral to this approach. Gakpo, with his ability to exploit spaces and Depay’s versatility, adds a dynamic edge to their attack. Defensively, the Dutch are anchored by the solid presence of Virgil van Dijk and Stefan de Vrij, who are adept at maintaining a high line and quickly transitioning the ball to midfield.

France, under Didier Deschamps, adopt a more balanced approach. Their offensive strategy revolves around quick transitions and exploiting the flanks. With the expected absence of Kylian Mbappé, the onus will be on Ousmane Dembélé and Marcus Thuram to provide width and pace.

Antoine Griezmann, operating as the playmaker, is crucial in linking midfield and attack. Defensively, France have been rock solid, keeping three consecutive clean sheets. The central defensive partnership of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano, coupled with the industrious N’Golo Kante in midfield, forms a formidable barrier.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Cody Gakpo has been a standout performer for the Netherlands. His equalising goal against Poland highlighted his clinical finishing and ability to perform under pressure. Memphis Depay, although not at his best, remains a crucial player due to his creativity and experience. In defence, Virgil van Dijk’s leadership and composure are invaluable, ensuring the Dutch maintain their structure.

For France, Antoine Griezmann’s role cannot be understated. His vision and passing range make him a constant threat. Olivier Giroud, stepping in for Mbappé, offers a different dimension with his aerial prowess and hold-up play. N’Golo Kante’s performance against Austria was a masterclass in midfield dominance, showcasing his ability to break up play and drive the team forward.

Impact of Management

Ronald Koeman’s tactical acumen has been pivotal for the Netherlands. His decision to introduce Wout Weghorst against Poland was a masterstroke, as the striker scored the winning goal. Koeman’s flexibility in formations and his ability to adapt in-game are strengths, but his reliance on key players could be seen as a potential weakness.

Didier Deschamps, with his pragmatic approach, has instilled a strong defensive discipline in France. However, his conservative tactics, particularly the reliance on counter-attacks, might limit the team’s potential, especially in Mbappé’s absence. Deschamps’s management has been effective, but his inability to dominate possession against weaker sides raises questions about his tactical flexibility.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The Netherlands have been efficient in their goal-scoring, with an average of 2.1 goals per game in the qualifiers. Their xG reflects their attacking intent, driven by high shot volumes and quality chances created through quick transitions and set pieces.

France, on the other hand, boast an impressive 3.6 goals per game. Their xG is significantly boosted by their ability to convert big chances, primarily through Mbappé’s incisiveness and Griezmann’s creativity. However, with Mbappé’s potential absence, their xG might see a slight dip, putting more pressure on their midfield and remaining forwards.

Comparative Tactical Analysis

Comparing the two teams tactically, the Netherlands favour an aggressive, high-pressing game, aiming to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities.

France, while equally potent offensively, prefer a more measured approach, focusing on defensive solidity and swift counter-attacks. The Dutch midfield, led by Joey Veerman, who needs to avoid another booking to not face suspension, is more about ball retention and progressive passing. In contrast, France’s midfield, particularly with Kante and Rabiot, emphasises ball recovery and quick transitions.

Suggestions for Improvement

For the Netherlands, the key improvement lies in their ability to convert chances. Despite their high shot count, their conversion rate needs to be more consistent. Defensively, they must tighten their structure, especially against top-tier opposition, to avoid conceding early goals that put them on the back foot.

France need to address their reliance on Mbappé. With him potentially sidelined, Deschamps should look to diversify their attacking outlets, perhaps giving more creative freedom to Griezmann and relying on the pace of Dembélé and Thuram. Improving possession statistics and control in midfield would also reduce their defensive workload.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Netherlands’ strength lies in their attacking versatility and depth. Players like Gakpo and Depay can change the game’s dynamics with their creativity and finishing. However, their defensive lapses, as seen against Poland, are a concern. The potential suspension of Joey Veerman if he receives another booking adds a tactical headache for Koeman.

France’s defensive resilience is their primary strength. With players like Saliba and Upamecano, they have the capability to shut down potent attacks. The major weakness is their over-reliance on Mbappé. Deschamps’s cautious approach, particularly in possession, could hinder their ability to control games against stronger opponents.

Managerial Criticism

Ronald Koeman’s approach, while effective, often feels too reliant on individual brilliance rather than a cohesive team strategy. His decision-making in crucial moments can be questionable, and there’s an over-reliance on veterans like Depay, which might backfire against well-organised teams.

Didier Deschamps, despite his successes, has been criticised for his conservative tactics. The lack of dominance in possession against Austria highlights a potential vulnerability. Deschamps’s reluctance to adapt his game plan dynamically could be France’s undoing, particularly if they face an early setback.

Key Predictions

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1. Best Bet: Under 2.50 Goals

Given the current form and tactical setups of both the Netherlands and France, a low-scoring game seems highly likely. The absence of Kylian MbappĂ©, who is a crucial component of France’s attacking force, significantly reduces their offensive threat. France’s recent matches have seen them focusing on defensive solidity, as evidenced by their three consecutive clean sheets.

The Netherlands, while having an attacking flair, will find it challenging to break down a disciplined French defence. Additionally, Ronald Koeman’s pragmatic approach often leads to tighter games against top-tier opposition. Considering all these factors, it’s reasonable to predict that the match will see fewer than 2.5 goals, with both teams likely to prioritise avoiding defeat over pursuing an aggressive attacking strategy.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Netherlands 0-0 France

A goalless draw is a plausible outcome for this high-stakes encounter. France’s defensive discipline, combined with the Netherlands’ occasional difficulty in breaking down well-organised defences, points towards a match where both sides may cancel each other out. Didier Deschamps’s team has been particularly adept at managing games and maintaining clean sheets, especially in high-pressure situations.

The Netherlands, although capable of scoring, might find it difficult to penetrate the robust French defence without taking undue risks. Hence, a 0-0 draw aligns well with the expectation of a low-scoring game and underscores the possibility of a tactical stalemate where neither side manages to find the breakthrough.

3. Corner Prediction

The Netherlands have shown a propensity to play wide and deliver crosses into the box, resulting in an average of 7.3 corners per game during the Euro 2024 qualifiers. France, while slightly less prolific in this regard, still manage a respectable 5.6 corners per game. Given the attacking styles and the defensive setups of both teams, the match is likely to see a significant number of corners.

The Dutch, with their focus on wing play and their ability to force defensive clearances, are expected to edge out France in the corner count. A combined total of around 12 corners seems likely, reflecting both teams’ offensive efforts and the defensive responses they provoke.

4. Shot on Target Prediction: Memphis Depay

Memphis Depay is central to the Netherlands’ attacking strategy, often finding himself in positions to test the goalkeeper. Despite some inconsistencies, Depay’s role as the primary attacking outlet ensures that he will have opportunities to shoot. His ability to strike from distance and his presence in the penalty area mean that he is almost certain to register at least one shot on target.

Depay’s confidence and experience in high-pressure situations further bolster his chances of making a significant impact. Given France’s defensive strength, Depay’s determination and skill will be crucial for the Dutch side to pose any significant threat to Maignan’s goal.

5. Yellow Card Prediction: Joey Veerman

Joey Veerman, a combative presence in the Netherlands midfield, is a strong candidate for a booking in this match. His aggressive style of play and the high stakes of this encounter make him likely to be involved in numerous physical battles. Veerman’s tendency to engage in tackles and disrupt the opposition’s flow could lead to a yellow card, especially against a technically gifted French midfield.

Additionally, Veerman is on the verge of suspension with another yellow card, heightening the likelihood of him receiving a booking as he tries to impose himself on the game. His role as a midfield enforcer makes him integral to breaking up play, albeit at the risk of disciplinary action.

6. Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target – Netherlands Over 4.5

The Netherlands’ attacking philosophy and their average of 6.5 shots on target per game suggest that they will aim to test the French defence frequently. This propensity to shoot from various positions on the pitch, combined with their dynamic forward play, indicates that they are likely to achieve over 4.5 shots on target.

France’s disciplined defence will be challenging to breach, but the Dutch team’s persistence and creativity in attack will ensure they keep Maignan busy. By leveraging their wide play and exploiting any defensive lapses, the Netherlands are expected to accumulate a significant number of shots on target throughout the match.

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Gram Dodd
15-year veteran in the sports writing industry who has written betting previews for NFL, golf, football, racing, and tennis. Sports event of all time: the Miracle of Istanbul.