Netherlands vs England Predictions

Netherlands vs England predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. After nervously progressing, England aim for successive Euro Championship finals, facing the Netherlands in Wednesday’s Euro 2024 semi-final. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Semi-Finals – Jul 10, 2024 at 8pm UK at Signal-Iduna-Park

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Netherlands vs England Predictions

Can England Overcome Their Dutch Nemesis to Reach the Euro 2024 Final?

As England prepare to face the Netherlands in the Euro 2024 semi-final, anticipation and excitement are palpable. This encounter at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, promises to be a compelling battle, with both teams eyeing a spot in the final against either France or Spain.

England’s Road to the Semi-Final

England’s journey to the semi-finals has been anything but straightforward. They have shown resilience and determination, albeit with performances that have left fans and pundits questioning their potential to lift the trophy. England began their campaign with a narrow victory over Serbia, thanks to an early goal by Jude Bellingham. However, their subsequent group stage performances were far from convincing. A lacklustre draw against Denmark and a goalless stalemate with Slovenia showcased England’s struggles to assert dominance.

In the knockout stages, England’s challenges continued. Their round of 16 match against Slovakia saw them snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with two dramatic late goals. Harry Kane and Bellingham’s heroics secured their passage, but the performance was less than inspiring. The quarter-final clash against Switzerland further highlighted their difficulties, as they needed penalties to progress after a 1-1 draw in regular time.

Despite these underwhelming displays, certain individual performances have stood out. Bukayo Saka has been a beacon of hope, delivering crucial goals at pivotal moments. Similarly, Jude Bellingham’s dynamic presence in midfield has been instrumental in England’s progression. Gareth Southgate’s tactical decisions have been under scrutiny, but his squad has shown the mental strength needed to reach this stage.

The Netherlands’ Path to the Semi-Final

In contrast, the Netherlands’ journey has been marked by resilience and tactical discipline. Finishing third in Group D, they navigated a tough group that included Austria, France, and Poland. Their performances in the knockout stages have showcased their ability to rise to the occasion. A dominant win over Romania in the round of 16 was followed by a gritty victory against Turkey in the quarter-finals.

Ronald Koeman’s pragmatic approach has been crucial in guiding his team through these challenges. Cody Gakpo has emerged as a standout player, leading the tournament’s goalscoring charts with three goals. His attacking prowess, combined with Stefan de Vrij’s defensive solidity, has been key to the Netherlands’ success. The Dutch have shown they can grind out results, even when not at their best, making them a formidable opponent.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Analysis

Netherlands Predicted Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Bart Verbruggen
• Defenders: Denzel Dumfries, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Aké
• Midfielders: Jerdy Schouten, Xavi Simons, Teun Koopmeiners
• Forwards: Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo

Koeman is likely to maintain his trusted 4-3-3 formation. The Dutch defence, led by Van Dijk, will be crucial in stifling England’s attacking threats. Dumfries and Aké provide width and support in both defence and attack. In midfield, Simons and Koopmeiners will look to control the tempo and link up play, while Gakpo and Depay pose significant threats up front.

England Predicted Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford
• Defenders: Kyle Walker, John Stones, Marc Guéhi, Luke Shaw
• Midfielders: Kieran Trippier, Kobbie Mainoo, Declan Rice
• Forwards: Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Harry Kane

Southgate might opt for a three-at-the-back system, with Walker, Stones, and Guéhi forming the defensive line. Shaw and Trippier will provide width as wing-backs, while Rice will anchor the midfield. Bellingham and Foden are expected to support Kane in attack, with Saka adding pace and creativity.

Match Analysis

The Netherlands’ strength lies in their balanced approach, combining solid defence with effective counter-attacks. Van Dijk’s leadership and Gakpo’s goal-scoring form are pivotal. England, on the other hand, need to address their inconsistent performances and find a way to unlock the Dutch defence. Kane’s experience and Saka’s flair will be essential in this high-stakes match.

England’s recent form suggests a cautious approach, aiming to control possession and avoid taking unnecessary risks. The Netherlands, however, might look to exploit any defensive lapses with quick transitions and precise finishing.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

England

England’s approach throughout Euro 2024 has been characterised by a cautious and measured strategy. Defensively, Gareth Southgate has often employed a back three, which transitions into a back five when under pressure. This formation provides a solid defensive base, although it has also led to criticisms of a lack of attacking ambition. Key to this strategy are players like Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw, who provide width and defensive solidity. Walker’s pace and Shaw’s crossing ability are vital in both defence and attack.

Offensively, England rely heavily on their creative midfielders and forwards to unlock defences. Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden have been instrumental in this regard. Bellingham, in particular, has shown a knack for making incisive runs and delivering crucial passes. Harry Kane remains the focal point of England’s attack, utilising his strength and positioning to create and finish chances. However, England’s offensive output has been underwhelming, as evidenced by their mere five goals in five matches.

Netherlands

The Netherlands, under Ronald Koeman, have adopted a more dynamic and balanced approach. Defensively, they typically line up with a solid back four, anchored by Virgil van Dijk. The Dutch defence has been disciplined and resilient, only conceding five goals in the tournament. Stefan de Vrij has been a standout performer, providing leadership and stability at the back.

In attack, the Netherlands have been more prolific and versatile. Cody Gakpo has been their standout attacker, leading the team with three goals. The Dutch utilise a 4-3-3 formation, with Gakpo and Memphis Depay providing width and cutting inside to create scoring opportunities. Xavi Simons plays a pivotal role in linking the midfield with the attack, often acting as the creative hub of the team. This formation allows the Netherlands to exploit spaces on the flanks and penetrate defences with quick, precise passing.

Individual Performances of Key Players

England

• Harry Kane: Despite criticisms, Kane remains a crucial player for England, having scored two goals. His ability to hold up play and his clinical finishing are assets that England cannot do without.
• Jude Bellingham: Bellingham’s performances have been a highlight for England. His dynamism and creativity in midfield have been crucial, particularly his goal against Slovakia which sparked England’s comeback.
• Bukayo Saka: Saka’s versatility and pace have made him a key player in Southgate’s setup. His equalising goal against Switzerland was pivotal, showcasing his ability to deliver in crucial moments.

Netherlands

• Cody Gakpo: Gakpo has been the Netherlands’ standout performer, leading the team in goals and providing a consistent attacking threat.
• Virgil van Dijk: Van Dijk’s leadership and defensive prowess have been instrumental in the Netherlands’ progression. His ability to marshal the defence and contribute to building play from the back is invaluable.
• Stefan de Vrij: De Vrij has been a rock in defence, providing stability and making crucial interventions, particularly in the knockout stages.

Impact of Management

Gareth Southgate

Southgate’s management has been under intense scrutiny. His conservative tactics have often been criticised, with many arguing that his reluctance to take risks has stifled England’s attacking potential. The team’s slow build-up play and defensive approach have drawn ire from fans and pundits alike. Despite these criticisms, Southgate’s ability to instill discipline and resilience in his team has been evident, particularly in their penalty shootout victories.

Ronald Koeman

Koeman, in contrast, has been praised for his pragmatic and balanced approach. His ability to extract consistent performances from his players without drawing too much attention has been commendable.

Koeman’s tactical flexibility and decision-making, such as the timely introduction of Wout Weghorst against Turkey, have been pivotal in the Netherlands’ journey to the semi-finals. His management style has brought out the best in key players like Gakpo and de Vrij, ensuring the team performs cohesively.

Expected Goals Analysis

In terms of expected goals (xG), the Netherlands have been superior. They have consistently created more high-quality chances, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to England’s 1 goal per game. This statistical difference highlights the Netherlands’ more effective attacking play. England’s lower xG reflects their struggles in breaking down defences and creating clear-cut opportunities, a significant area of concern going into the semi-final.

Tactical and Player Performance Comparison

When comparing the two teams tactically, the Netherlands’ balanced and versatile approach contrasts sharply with England’s more conservative strategy. The Dutch have been more dynamic in attack, with players like Gakpo and Depay providing width and creativity. England’s reliance on a more structured and cautious approach has led to fewer attacking opportunities.

Player performances have also been a point of contrast. While England have seen standout performances from Bellingham and Saka, the consistency of key Dutch players like Gakpo and de Vrij has been more pronounced. The Netherlands’ ability to combine solid defence with effective attacking transitions gives them a tactical edge.

Suggestions for Improvement

England

To improve, England must adopt a more proactive and attacking mindset. Southgate needs to utilise the creative talents of players like Foden and Bellingham more effectively. Implementing quicker transitions from defence to attack and encouraging more dynamic play could help unlock opposition defences. Additionally, addressing their sluggish starts and maintaining intensity throughout the match is crucial.

Netherlands

While the Netherlands have been impressive, they must avoid complacency and tighten their defensive organisation against stronger opponents. Ensuring that their midfield maintains control and prevents England from dictating the pace will be key. Enhancing their set-piece defending and capitalising on their attacking opportunities more clinically can further bolster their chances.

Strengths and Weaknesses

England

• Strengths: Defensive solidity, individual brilliance from players like Bellingham and Saka, resilience in knockout situations.
• Weaknesses: Lack of attacking flair, overly cautious tactics, reliance on late comebacks, and inconsistent performances.

Netherlands

• Strengths: Balanced team structure, dynamic attacking play, solid defensive leadership from van Dijk and de Vrij, effective tactical flexibility.
• Weaknesses: Occasional defensive lapses, reliance on key players like Gakpo, and potential vulnerability against high-pressing teams.

Controversial Criticism: Gareth Southgate’s Management

Gareth Southgate’s management has come under fire for stifling England’s potential with overly cautious tactics. His reluctance to take risks and his conservative approach have often been detrimental to the team’s attacking capabilities. The decision to persist with a back three, despite its limitations, highlights a lack of tactical flexibility.

Southgate’s in-game management has also been questioned, with slow and often ineffective substitutions contributing to England’s underwhelming performances. This approach has led to a lack of fluidity and creativity, making England predictable and easy to defend against. For a team boasting significant attacking talent, Southgate’s inability to unlock their full potential is a glaring flaw that could cost them dearly against a more dynamic and balanced Dutch side.

Predictions

1. Draw and Both Teams to Score (Best Bet)

Given the defensive vulnerabilities and attacking prowess of both teams, a draw with both sides finding the net is a highly probable outcome. England’s recent games have shown a tendency for late drama, often involving goals from both teams.

Their encounter with Switzerland in the quarter-finals saw them equalise late on, demonstrating their capacity to respond under pressure. Similarly, the Netherlands have showcased their resilience, notably in their comeback against Turkey. The Dutch attack, led by Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay, has been effective throughout the tournament. Both teams have potent attacking options but have also shown defensive frailties, making a score draw a compelling bet.

2. Correct Score Prediction: 1-1

A 1-1 draw aligns with the recent form of both teams. England have drawn three of their last four matches 1-1, indicating a pattern of tight games with limited goals.

Their cautious approach under Gareth Southgate often leads to controlled, low-scoring matches. The Netherlands, while effective in attack, have also been involved in close encounters. Their semi-final berth was secured through narrow victories, showcasing their ability to score but also their vulnerability at the back. A 1-1 scoreline reflects the likelihood of both teams scoring but not being able to pull away decisively from each other.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Cody Gakpo

Cody Gakpo has been in stellar form, leading the tournament’s scoring charts. His knack for finding the back of the net in crucial moments makes him a prime candidate to score against England. Gakpo’s versatility and positioning have seen him involved in most of the Dutch’s attacking plays. With three goals to his name already, his confidence will be high.

Given England’s occasional defensive lapses, Gakpo’s ability to exploit spaces and his clinical finishing make him a strong bet to add to his tally in this high-stakes semi-final.

4. Corner Prediction: Netherlands to Win Most Corners

The Netherlands’ attacking style is likely to result in more corners than England. Throughout the tournament, the Dutch have averaged more corners per game (6) compared to England (4.4). This statistic highlights their attacking intent and ability to pressure opponents’ defences.

Players like Gakpo and Depay, who frequently take on defenders and create chances, often result in corner opportunities. Given England’s more measured approach and reliance on counter-attacks, the Netherlands are expected to dominate in this aspect, winning more corners over the course of the match.

5. Shot on Target Prediction: Harry Kane

Harry Kane, despite facing criticism, remains England’s primary goal threat. He has a knack for finding space and getting shots on target, particularly in crucial matches. Kane’s positioning and ability to shoot from various angles make him a reliable pick for at least one shot on target.

In a game of this magnitude, Kane is likely to be at the forefront of England’s attacking efforts, trying to break down a resolute Dutch defence. His experience and track record in big matches support the prediction that he will have multiple opportunities to test the goalkeeper.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Declan Rice

Declan Rice’s role as a defensive midfielder often puts him in positions where he needs to make tactical fouls. His physical style and responsibility for breaking up opposition attacks make him a likely candidate for a yellow card.

In a match of this intensity, Rice will be crucial in shielding the defence and disrupting the Dutch playmakers. His aggressive approach and commitment to preventing counter-attacks may lead to situations where a booking is inevitable, especially against a technically proficient Netherlands midfield.

7. Assist Prediction: Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham’s creativity and vision have been pivotal for England throughout the tournament. His ability to drive forward from midfield and deliver key passes makes him a strong candidate to provide an assist.

Bellingham has shown he can change the dynamics of a game with his incisive passing and intelligent movement. In a match where chances might be at a premium, his flair and decision-making in the final third will be crucial. With attacking players like Kane and Saka around him, Bellingham is well-positioned to set up a goal-scoring opportunity.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target – Netherlands Over 5

The Netherlands’ attacking prowess is reflected in their ability to generate shots on target. Averaging 4 shots on target per game in the tournament, they have shown consistency in testing goalkeepers. In a semi-final where they will look to assert their offensive capabilities, exceeding five shots on target is plausible.

With players like Gakpo and Depay leading the charge, the Dutch are likely to be aggressive in their approach, seeking to overwhelm the England defence. Given England’s occasional defensive lapses, the Netherlands can capitalise and surpass this threshold.

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