Napoli vs AC Milan predictions ahead of this Champions League quarter-final affair on Wednesday night. Can the Partenopei overcome the 1-0 first-leg defeat? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Match Live Tuesday, 18th April at 8:00pm In:
Napoli vs AC Milan Predictions
£20 Returns £96  ----- £10 Returns £110  Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Champions League Quarter-Finals Offer a Thrilling Contest Between Italian Giants
Key Stats
– AC Milan have kept five consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League.
– Napoli’s players have scored just a single goal between them in April.
Napoli’s Struggle for a Dream Double
Luciano Spalletti’s Napoli has been one of the surprises of this season, not only in Italy but also in Europe. They are now poised to clinch their first Serie A title since 1990, and they have a dream to proceed also in the Champions League semi-finals.
It has to be said, though, that their form has been rather shaky recently, as they have been able to win just one game in their last four, also because they have missed key players in the period.
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AC Milan’s Inconsistent Form
Stefano Pioli’s AC Milan has had an overall inconsistent and disappointing season and are coming to Naples on the back of only two wins in their last eight games. Interestingly, these wins were against Napoli, and that could give them a psychological advantage as they attempt to save their season by reaching the Champions League semi-finals. AC Milan are currently sitting two points ahead of their city rivals, Inter Milan, making their performance in Europe particularly important.
has also had an inconsistent run, with only two victories in their last eight games. Interestingly, both of these wins were against Napoli, which could give them a psychological edge as they aim for a spot in the Champions League semi-finals. AC Milan currently sits two points ahead of city rival Inter, making a strong performance in the Champions League all the more important.
Bookmakers have made AC Milan the favourites to qualify as they do have a narrow 1-0 advantage, but Napoli are close by. After all, the head-to-head encounters between these two teams look pretty balanced, with four Napoli wins, three Milan wins, and three draws in the last 10 games.
Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, who missed the first leg due to injury, should be back for this crucial game and surely will have an impact. He only played a few minutes in the 0-0 draw against Verona in the last weekend, but was immediately capable of hitting the post, showing that he is still in very good form and fired up for this massive game.
Napoli vs AC Milan Main Betting Tip: Draw/Milan Double Chance
I do expect a tense affair at the Stadio Armando Maradona, but there are two things that point me towards AC Milan proceeding to the next round. The first is that Napoli have been extraordinary this season from the outset, and now they are starting to pay the price in terms of energies.
They are not playing in the same way they used to, and they are struggling to win games. The second is that Milan’s recent success against Napoli and their string of clean sheets in the Champions League well demonstrate that they are finding their footing in a competition where they have a glory history.
Napoli vs AC Milan Value Bet: Giovanni Di Lorenzo to get carded
As we have seen in the first leg, this is going to be a nervous affair, as so much is at stake in this Italian derby. The referee for this game would be Polish’ Szymon Marciniak, who has a rather high yellow card average at 4.38 per game.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo is one of the main candidates to get a card in what is expected to be a tricky game for the Italian international, who will have attacking duties on that flank but also need to defend his team against Rafael Leao, who is one of the most skilled players in Serie A. Leao apport was huge in the first leg, and we expect him to cause more problems as Napoli will need to push forward, leaving inevitably some space at the back for Milan to counterattack.
The Portugal player is fouled an average of 0.8 times per game in Serie A this season, and Di Lorenzo has an average of one foul per game. Expect Partenopei’s defender to have to spend a yellow card at some point to stop Leao from running away on that flank.
Napoli vs AC Milan Correct Score Prediction: Draw 1-1
Milan have been very solid at the back in the Champions League, but the return of Osimhen will give Napoli significantly more options in attack. Luciano Spalletti’s men have only scored one goal between them in April, and I do not foresee many goals in this game, with Milan that will be determined to hold their ground and hit in counterattack.
A 1-1 draw appears to be a plausible outcome, as Napoli might be able to eventually find the back of the net with the return of their Nigerian ace but might also struggle to keep Milan’s experienced strikers away for the duration of the game.
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