Millwall vs Derby Predictions

Millwall vs Derby County Predictions for this Championship fixture. Millwall face Derby County at The Den on Saturday, aiming to secure second-tier honours after the international break in this crucial Championship clash. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Championship | Oct 19, 2024 at 3pm UK at The Den

Millwall vs Derby Predictions

Can Millwall Capitalise on Derby’s Away Woes at The Den?

• Millwall’s Expected Goals: The Lions rank second in the Championship for expected goals, with an xG of 16.69, despite sitting 18th in the table. This suggests they’re creating plenty of chances but struggling to convert.
• Derby’s Away Day Nightmare: The Rams have lost all four of their Championship away matches this season, scoring just three goals while conceding nine. They are the only team yet to pick up a point on their travels.
• Low Scoring Trend: Both sides have struggled for goals, with Millwall averaging 1.3 goals per game and Derby matching that, making a low-scoring encounter likely at The Den on Saturday.

Our Tips

Saturday afternoon brings a tantalising clash at The Den as Millwall prepare to face Derby County in a Championship fixture. Both teams find themselves with much to prove after the international break, and with Derby continuing to struggle on their travels, this match promises to be a crucial test for both clubs. The Lions, despite some inconsistent form, will relish the chance to play in front of their home crowd, where they are looking to build momentum. Derby, on the other hand, have yet to pick up a single point away from home this season, making this fixture a potential uphill battle.

Millwall’s 13th-placed finish last season was far from their usual aspirations, and with just two wins from their first nine matches this season, they haven’t quite found the consistency they need to push further up the table. However, they are back at The Den after two tough away fixtures, where they’ll be determined to use this opportunity to start turning their season around. Meanwhile, Derby’s return to the Championship after a stint in League One has been a mixed bag. While their home form has been stellar, with all 12 points coming at Pride Park, their away record is a disaster, having lost all four of their away games so far. This leaves Millwall as the favourites to grab the points in what could be a cagey affair.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals

Given the nature of this encounter, the best bet here looks to be under 2.5 goals, and there are several compelling reasons to back this prediction. Firstly, Millwall’s recent form suggests they’re struggling to find the net with regularity. They’ve managed just 12 goals in nine games, which, while not disastrous, doesn’t scream prolific. Their top scorer, Duncan Watmore, has netted five times, but the rest of the squad hasn’t contributed much, especially with Tom Bradshaw out injured. This lack of attacking depth could play a crucial role in a game where Derby’s defence will be looking to stay organised.

Moreover, Derby have been woeful on the road, losing all four away games and scoring only three goals in those outings. Their defence, while not terrible, has still been breached consistently. They’ve conceded an average of 1.3 goals per game but have managed to keep four clean sheets overall, suggesting they’re capable of holding firm when under pressure. However, it’s their toothless attack away from home that raises the biggest red flags. They have simply not been able to replicate their Pride Park form on their travels, which makes it hard to see them scoring more than once at The Den.

In addition, both teams have defensive resilience despite their respective league positions. Millwall have kept three clean sheets already, and their home form, particularly defensively, has been relatively solid. With both teams struggling in front of goal and looking to avoid another defeat, this could be a low-scoring, tense affair.

As Graham Hartshorn, BettingTips4You.com’s expert, succinctly puts it: “Given both sides’ struggles to break down opposition defences recently and Derby’s horrendous away form, it’s hard to see this one being a high-scoring affair. Millwall will want to keep things tight, especially with their limited attacking options, and Derby’s best bet will be to frustrate and hope for a mistake.”

A goal-fest seems unlikely, so betting on under 2.5 goals is the most logical approach for this match.

Correct Score Prediction: Millwall 1-0 Derby County

With the under 2.5 goals market as the standout prediction, a narrow 1-0 win for Millwall looks the most likely outcome. Millwall are not scoring freely, and while Derby’s defence is not watertight, their sheer desperation for an away result could see them dig in deep, particularly in the opening stages. The Rams’ struggles on the road can’t be ignored, and despite their solid home form, they’ve shown little to suggest they can replicate that away from Pride Park.

Millwall, on the other hand, have a crucial advantage playing at The Den, where the atmosphere is always a factor. It’s a tough place for any visiting team, and Derby’s lack of away success only reinforces the likelihood of a narrow home win. Duncan Watmore’s form in front of goal gives Millwall the edge, but even then, it may take something scrappy to break the deadlock. Millwall’s expected goals (xG) of 16.69 is the second-highest in the Championship, so they’re creating chances, but finishing them has been another story entirely.

A single goal could decide this one, with Millwall taking advantage of Derby’s travel sickness to nick a 1-0 victory.

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