Manchester City vs AC Milan Predictions

Manchester City vs AC Milan for this pre-season friendly tie. Manchester City play AC Milan in a pre-season friendly at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. City won the Premier League; Milan finished second in Serie A. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips

Club Friendlies | Jul 28, 2024 at 1am UK at Yankee Stadium

Manchester City vs AC Milan Predictions

[wptb id=418654]

Can AC Milan Exploit Manchester City’s Pre-Season Vulnerabilities?

The clash between Manchester City and AC Milan at Yankee Stadium is a pre-season fixture that offers a wealth of tactical intrigue and player dynamics. This encounter, albeit a friendly, provides both teams with an opportunity to fine-tune their strategies ahead of their respective competitive campaigns. Manchester City, under the stewardship of Pep Guardiola, and AC Milan, led by newly appointed Paulo Fonseca, will both be keen to assert their footballing philosophies.

Manchester City’s Recent Form and Strategy

Manchester City have enjoyed an unprecedented era of dominance in English football, securing their fourth consecutive Premier League title last season. Despite their domestic success, Guardiola’s side has faced challenges in European competitions and domestic cup fixtures, most notably their exit from the Champions League against Real Madrid and a defeat in the FA Cup final against Manchester United. The recent pre-season defeat against Celtic, where City conceded four goals, highlighted potential vulnerabilities, particularly with key players missing due to international duties.

City’s pre-season preparations have been somewhat disrupted, with several of their regular starters absent. Guardiola has been relying on younger talents such as Luke Mbete, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, and Josh Wilson-Esbrand, who started in the match against Celtic. The potential absence of influential players like Rodri, coupled with ongoing transfer speculations surrounding goalkeeper Ederson Moraes, adds to the uncertainty within the squad.

In terms of formation, City are expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 setup, with Stefan Ortega likely to start in goal. The defence may feature a combination of youth and experience with Rico Lewis, Mbete, Simpson-Pusey, and Wilson-Esbrand. The midfield pivot could see Kalvin Phillips partnering Máximo Perrone, while the attacking trident behind Erling Haaland might include Oscar Bobb, James McAtee, and Jack Grealish. This formation emphasises ball possession and intricate passing, but the integration of less experienced players may affect fluidity.

AC Milan’s Approach Under Fonseca

AC Milan, on the other hand, are undergoing a transition under Paulo Fonseca, who replaced Stefano Pioli after a disappointing run in Serie A last season. Fonseca, known for his offensive style of play, will be looking to implement his tactical ideas quickly. Milan’s pre-season form has been mixed, with a draw against Rapid Vienna in their last outing. The Rossoneri are still finding their rhythm, and this match against Manchester City represents a significant test.

Milan's likely formation for this fixture is a 4-2-3-1, mirroring City's setup. Marco Sportiello is expected to start in goal, with a back four consisting of Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Antonio Jimenez, and Alessandro Florenzi. The midfield duo of Ismaël Bennacer and Tommaso Pobega will provide defensive solidity and transitional play. In attack, Samuel Chukwueze, Marco Liberali, and Amad Traore will support Lorenzo Colombo, the lone striker. This formation allows Milan to maintain a balanced approach, capable of quick transitions and solid defensive coverage.

Key Players and Tactical Battles

One of the critical areas where this match could be decided is the midfield battle. City’s Kalvin Phillips and Máximo Perrone against Milan’s Ismaël Bennacer and Tommaso Pobega will be a crucial duel. Phillips, known for his defensive acumen and passing range, will need to disrupt Milan’s buildup play, while Bennacer’s creativity and ball control can dictate the tempo for the Rossoneri.

In the attacking third, Erling Haaland will be City’s primary threat. His physical presence and goal-scoring prowess will test Milan’s defence, particularly Fikayo Tomori and Antonio Jimenez. On the other hand, Milan's Lorenzo Colombo, though less experienced, will look to exploit any gaps in City’s defence, especially if the young backline shows signs of vulnerability.

Gameplay Predictions

Given the attacking philosophies of both managers, this game is likely to be open and high-scoring. Guardiola’s City will dominate possession and look to create chances through intricate play and quick transitions. Milan, under Fonseca, will aim to strike on the counter-attack, utilising the pace of Chukwueze and Traore. The absence of key players for City could tilt the balance slightly in Milan’s favour, especially if they can maintain defensive discipline and exploit set-pieces.

Managerial Critiques

Pep Guardiola’s tactical ingenuity is well-documented, but his over-reliance on a possession-based game can sometimes leave his team vulnerable to counter-attacks, as seen in the recent friendly against Celtic. His reluctance to adapt his tactics mid-game has been a point of contention, particularly in high-stakes matches.

On the other hand, Paulo Fonseca, though a relatively new appointment, has a history of implementing an attractive style of play. However, his teams have sometimes struggled with defensive solidity, which could be a critical weakness against a side as potent as Manchester City.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Manchester City: Strengths:

• High ball possession and control
• Depth in the squad with emerging young talents
• Tactical flexibility under Guardiola

Weaknesses:

• Potential defensive frailties with key players missing
• Over-reliance on possession could expose them to counter-attacks
• Uncertainty surrounding Guardiola’s future and transfer speculations

AC Milan: Strengths:

• Strong counter-attacking potential
• New tactical approach under Fonseca
• Experienced defenders like Tomori and Florenzi

Weaknesses:

• Lack of pre-season wins may affect morale
• Defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in set-piece situations
• Integration of new tactics might take time

Betting Angles and Predictions

Best Bet: Over 4.5 Goals

The anticipated friendly between Manchester City and AC Milan is set to be an open and attacking affair, making the over 4.5 goals market an appealing option. Both sides are known for their offensive prowess, with City scoring 96 goals in the Premier League last season and Milan netting 76 in Serie A. Manchester City’s recent 4-3 defeat to Celtic highlighted their vulnerability at the back, especially with a makeshift defence due to the absence of key players. AC Milan, under the new guidance of Paulo Fonseca, are likely to exploit these weaknesses with their counter-attacking style.

Fonseca’s teams traditionally favour attacking football, and with players like Lorenzo Colombo and Samuel Chukwueze expected to feature, Milan have the firepower to find the net multiple times. Given City’s tendency to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities, coupled with Milan’s counter-attacking threat, a high-scoring game seems inevitable. The combination of both teams’ attacking strengths and defensive uncertainties points towards a match with plenty of goals.

Correct Score Prediction: Manchester City 3-2 AC Milan

Predicting a 3-2 victory for Manchester City encapsulates the likely scenario of a high-scoring game with both teams finding the net regularly. City, even without some of their star players, possess enough quality in attack to trouble Milan’s defence. Erling Haaland’s presence up front guarantees a goal threat, and with creative players like Jack Grealish and James McAtee supporting him, City should score multiple goals.

However, their defensive frailties, as evidenced in their pre-season match against Celtic, will give Milan opportunities. The Rossoneri, adapting to Fonseca’s attacking style, have shown they can score goals, and with players like Ismaël Bennacer and Tommaso Pobega in midfield, they will look to exploit any defensive lapses from City. The predicted scoreline of 3-2 aligns with the expectation of an open game with plenty of chances for both sides, reflecting the attacking talent on display and the defensive vulnerabilities.

Goalscorer Prediction: Erling Haaland to Score

Erling Haaland’s goal-scoring exploits make him the standout candidate to score in this fixture. Last season, Haaland netted 27 times in the Premier League, demonstrating his prowess as one of Europe’s most lethal strikers. His physicality, positioning, and finishing ability make him a constant threat to any defence.

Against AC Milan, Haaland will benefit from the service provided by City’s creative midfielders and wingers. Jack Grealish, in particular, is adept at creating chances from the left flank, while James McAtee can provide incisive passes from central areas. Haaland’s ability to capitalise on even half-chances means he is likely to find the back of the net. Additionally, Milan’s defence, which conceded 49 goals in Serie A last season, may struggle to contain Haaland’s movement and strength, further increasing the likelihood of him scoring at least once during the match.

Corner Prediction: Manchester City to Win More Corners

Manchester City’s playing style, characterised by maintaining high possession and attacking through wide areas, often results in a significant number of corners. Last season, City averaged 7.5 corners per game in the Premier League. Their ability to dominate possession and pressure opponents’ defences usually forces the opposition to concede corners. In this match, City’s wingers and full-backs will look to deliver crosses into the box, creating opportunities for corners.

AC Milan, playing more on the counter, are likely to have fewer attacking sequences leading to corners. Fonseca’s side will focus on quick transitions and exploiting City’s defensive gaps, which typically result in fewer corner situations. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that City will win more corners than Milan, maintaining their trend from last season’s statistics.

Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target – Manchester City Over 6.5

Given Manchester City’s attacking setup and their propensity to create numerous scoring opportunities, betting on them to have over 6.5 shots on target appears promising. Last season, City averaged 7.3 shots on target per game, underlining their offensive efficiency. In their recent pre-season match against Celtic, despite missing several key players, they managed to score three goals, indicating their ability to generate chances.

Players like Jack Grealish, Erling Haaland, and James McAtee are likely to test Milan’s goalkeeper frequently. Milan’s defensive record from last season, which saw them concede 49 goals, suggests they may struggle to contain City’s relentless attacks. With Guardiola’s side focusing on fine-tuning their attacking plays ahead of the new season, the likelihood of City having at least seven shots on target is high. This market provides a statistically backed angle, given City’s consistent shot generation in matches.

Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips

Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!