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Lazio vs Roma Predictions for this Serie A contest at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio face Roma in Sunday’s Derby della Capitale, renewing their fierce rivalry dating back to 1929, with both sides seeking crucial Serie A bragging rights. Read on for all our predictions and free betting tips for the game.
Serie A | Sep 21 2025 at 11:30 am UK at Stadio Olimpico
Lazio vs Roma Predictions
Can Lazio Halt Roma’s Rise or Will the Giallorossi Take Control of the Capital?
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- History screams low scoring
- All of the last seven league derbies between Lazio and Roma have produced under 2.5 goals, a trend that looks very likely to continue.
- Lazio struggling for firepower
- Sarri’s men have failed to score in two of their three Serie A games this season, highlighting their lack of cutting edge in attack.
- Roma banking on defence
- The Giallorossi have conceded only once in three league outings under Gasperini, showing his tactical focus has been on organisation and solidity.
Best Bet for Lazio vs Roma
Under 2.5 total goals | |
3/5 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Backing under 2.5 goals makes sense because both sides are missing key attackers, their recent meetings have been low-scoring, and neither will want to risk losing this derby. | |
The eternal city is braced for its fiercest football night of the year as Lazio and Roma clash at the Stadio Olimpico this Sunday. The Derby della Capitale never fails to stir emotions, and this edition feels even more charged with both clubs coming off defeats in Serie A. Neither side can really afford another slip, especially in such a high-profile encounter where the consequences go far beyond three points.
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Lazio, with Maurizio Sarri back at the helm, are struggling to find rhythm. Losing to Sassuolo last week after already being embarrassed by Como on the opening day has left their supporters restless. Roma, meanwhile, began the season with back-to-back victories and clean sheets, before Torino brought them back down to earth. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have shown signs of greater resilience, but in this fixture, form often evaporates as the pressure of local pride takes over. With both sets of fans filling the same stadium but separated by decades of hostility, there’s every chance we’ll see drama, tension, and maybe even a few tempers boiling over.
Best Bet for this Match
At BettingTips4You we keep things simple: one match, one prediction. We don’t bombard you with endless options, because we believe in quality not quantity. And for the Derby della Capitale, our Best Bet is Under 2.5 total goals.
The logic is rooted in both recent history and current team dynamics. Lazio have looked blunt in front of goal, drawing blanks in two of their three league matches so far. Their defeat to Sassuolo last weekend highlighted their lack of creativity, and with doubts over Taty Castellanos’ fitness, they may have to rely on Boulaye Dia or the veteran Pedro, neither of whom are in the best condition to lead the line. Add to that the fact that Nicolo Rovella is also a doubt, and suddenly Lazio look very short of players who can dictate tempo in the middle.
Roma, on the other hand, have been defined by defensive solidity since Gasperini took charge. They shut out Bologna and Pisa, and even in defeat to Torino they conceded just a single goal. The absences of Paulo Dybala and Leon Bailey restrict their attacking options, with Evan Ferguson likely to start as the lone striker. Ferguson has yet to find consistent scoring form at club level, so relying on him in the derby feels like a gamble. Soule and El Shaarawy will provide support, but Roma’s approach has been cautious and disciplined so far.
Recent derbies also back this call. Each of the last seven Serie A meetings between Lazio and Roma have finished under 2.5 goals. With both sides entering this one under pressure not to lose, risk-taking is likely to be minimal. Cards and crunching tackles? Absolutely. Free-flowing football? Don’t hold your breath.
As BettingTips4You.com expert Luca Pratesi summed it up:
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“These derbies are about survival first, style second. Neither side can risk too much, and with both looking unconvincing in attack, goals will be scarce again.”
So while some fans might long for a 4-3 thriller, the reality is this will likely be another chess match fought in the trenches. Our call is for a tight and cagey 0-0 draw, with both teams cancelling each other out and tempers possibly grabbing more headlines than actual goals.
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