Latvia vs North Macedonia Predictions

Latvia vs North Macedonia predictions for this Nations League fixture. Latvia, the lowest-ranked side in League C, have exceeded expectations with one win from two Nations League matches, a solid return for the underdogs so far in the campaign. Read on for our match preview and free betting tips.

UEFA Nations League League C | Oct 10, 2024 at 5pm UK at Skonto Stadium

Latvia vs North Macedonia Predictions

Can Latvia Hold Off North Macedonia or Are They Set for Another Defeat?

• Latvia’s Defensive Woes: Latvia have conceded two goals per game in this Nations League campaign, showing a worrying trend that makes it difficult to imagine them keeping a clean sheet against a potent North Macedonia attack.
• North Macedonia’s Goal Threat: The Lions have averaged 15 shots per game, with five on target, suggesting that they’ll have plenty of opportunities to break down Latvia’s fragile defence and rack up the scoreline.
• Latvia’s Limited Firepower: Latvia manage just 9.5 shots per game, with only 2.5 of those hitting the target. They’re likely to struggle to mount consistent attacks, making a solitary goal their ceiling in this match.

Our Tips

The stage is set for a crucial UEFA Nations League clash as Latvia face North Macedonia in what promises to be a game where emotions are likely to run high. Both sides find themselves at different ends of the spectrum in terms of recent form, with Latvia struggling to find consistency and North Macedonia looking like the favourites on paper. Latvia, playing at home in Riga, are hopeful that they can claw their way to a result, though they face a side that has historically dominated them. Having lost 11 of their last 16 matches, the odds are firmly stacked against the hosts, but football, as we know, has a habit of throwing up surprises. North Macedonia, however, enter this encounter brimming with confidence, having secured some eye-catching results recently, including draws against Italy and England.

For the neutral, this game offers a classic contrast of styles: Latvia, desperate to keep things tight and cautious, versus North Macedonia, whose attacking play and superior individual quality suggest they could run riot if given half a chance. But can Latvia spring a surprise or are they merely lambs to the slaughter once again?

Best Bet: North Macedonia to Win and Both Teams to Score

Backing North Macedonia to come out victorious while conceding at least once seems like the most logical play here. The reasoning behind this is quite straightforward when you examine the available data. Latvia have conceded two goals per game in their Nations League campaign so far, which shows a tendency to leak goals, despite their decent possession stats (47% per game). Their defence, while resilient at times, tends to crumble when facing higher quality opposition, as evidenced by their humiliating 4-1 defeat to Armenia. It’s also worth noting that Latvia have a knack for getting on the scoresheet, with an average of one goal per game in this campaign, even if it’s often too little, too late.

On the flip side, North Macedonia have shown that they are more than capable of exploiting weak defences. Their 1.5 goals per game average in this campaign demonstrates that they are no slouches in front of goal, and with players like Enis Bardhi and Bojan Miovski in form, you’d expect them to get on the scoresheet more than once. Despite their attacking prowess, North Macedonia are not immune to defensive lapses, having conceded one goal across their two Nations League matches this season. Latvia, while outclassed, may very well find themselves the benefactors of one such lapse.

“North Macedonia’s attacking strength combined with Latvia’s tendency to concede goals makes this a strong pick. Backing the Lions to win while both sides find the net offers excellent value,” says BettingTips4You.com expert John Pentin.

Additionally, the head-to-head record heavily favours North Macedonia, who have won all three previous encounters between these sides. Their superiority is not just in terms of quality but also in mental fortitude; they simply seem to have Latvia’s number. The contrast between North Macedonia’s solid Champions League-level performers and Latvia’s squad—composed primarily of domestic league players—further tilts the scales. The fact that Latvia have only scored two goals in two games but conceded four speaks to their frailties, making this prediction feel even more secure.

Correct Score Prediction: North Macedonia 3-1 Latvia

Given the rationale for the best bet, a correct score prediction of 3-1 in favour of North Macedonia appears to align perfectly. The Lions are likely to dominate possession, using their 55% average ball retention to control the game. Latvia’s struggles in front of goal, coupled with their porous defence, suggest they will concede multiple goals yet might sneak in a consolation, as they did against Faroe Islands and Armenia.

Latvia’s tally of 9.5 shots per game, with only 2.5 hitting the target, reveals that they are unlikely to mount a sustained attack but may still catch Macedonia out on the counter-attack. With Renārs Varslavāns being their top scorer with one goal so far, Latvia’s chances of breaching Macedonia’s defence will largely rest on set pieces or moments of individual brilliance, which have been few and far between this campaign. Meanwhile, North Macedonia’s 15 shots per game, combined with their superior big chances per match (3), suggest they will create plenty of opportunities to put the game beyond Latvia’s reach.

However, North Macedonia’s defensive record—having conceded just one goal in two matches—shows that while they are not impenetrable, they are far more robust at the back than Latvia. A comfortable 3-1 victory for the visitors seems like a reasonable outcome, one that reflects both teams’ strengths and weaknesses.

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