Las Palmas vs Sevilla Predictions

Las Palmas vs Sevilla predictions for this clash in La Liga. Sevilla aim to secure three points in their 2024-25 La Liga opener on Friday evening, as they visit Estadio Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas. Read on for our free predictions and tips.

La Liga | Aug 16, 2024 at 8:30pm UK at Estadio de Gran Canaria

Las Palmas vs Sevilla Predictions

Can Sevilla’s New Era Begin with a Triumph Against Familiar Faces?

As Sevilla prepare to kick off their 2024-25 La Liga campaign with a clash against Las Palmas, the narrative surrounding this fixture is undeniably compelling. The storylines are rich with intrigue, not least because Sevilla’s new head coach, García Pimienta, faces his former club in his very first match in charge. This opener, set against the backdrop of Estadio Gran Canaria, promises to set the tone for both sides’ seasons, with each looking to assert their ambitions early on.

Team Form and Pre-Season Preparations

Las Palmas: Coming off a 16th-place finish last season, Las Palmas have undergone significant changes over the summer, with a dozen new players arriving and ten departing. This turnover has led to a fresh look for the squad under new manager Luis Carrion, who took over after leaving Real Oviedo.

However, their pre-season form has been less than convincing, with only one win from six matches—a 4-0 victory against Union Sur Yaiza. The goalless draw against Liverpool last weekend highlighted their defensive solidity but also underscored ongoing issues in attack.

Sevilla: On the other side, Sevilla’s pre-season has been mixed. A heavy 4-1 defeat to Liverpool was a sobering reminder of the challenges ahead, but victories against Fulham and other lesser opponents provided glimpses of what this revamped squad might be capable of under Pimienta.

The Andalusians have had a difficult time in La Liga recently, finishing 14th last season, their worst performance since being relegated over two decades ago. With significant squad changes, including the arrivals of Lucien Agoume, Kelechi Iheanacho, and loan signings such as Albert Sambi Lokonga and Saul Niguez, there’s a palpable sense of urgency to restore their former glories.

Tactical Analysis and Expected Gameplay

Las Palmas: Carrion’s Las Palmas are likely to focus on a compact and disciplined defensive structure, hoping to hit Sevilla on the break. The expected starting lineup suggests a team set up to absorb pressure and exploit wide areas through players like Marvin Park and Manu Fuster. The midfield trio, anchored by Kirian Rodriguez, will aim to disrupt Sevilla’s rhythm and provide quick outlets to the forward duo of Sandro and Oli McBurnie. However, their lack of pre-season goals hints at a potential struggle to break down a well-organised defence.

Sevilla: Sevilla, under Pimienta’s new management, are expected to adopt a more possession-based approach, looking to dominate the midfield through the likes of Agoume and Sow. With a likely front three of Ocampos, Iheanacho, and Lukebakio, Sevilla will aim to stretch the Las Palmas defence and create scoring opportunities through quick interchanges and individual brilliance.

The absence of Suso and Saul Niguez will be felt, but the depth of the squad should provide enough firepower to overcome these setbacks. Their defensive setup, marshalled by Bade and Nianzou, will need to be vigilant against Las Palmas’ counter-attacks, particularly with the aerial threat posed by McBurnie.

Key Duels and Areas to Watch

Midfield Battle: The contest in midfield will be pivotal. Sevilla’s Agoume, in particular, will need to assert his presence against the industrious Kirian Rodriguez. If Agoume can dictate the tempo, it will go a long way in ensuring Sevilla control the game. Las Palmas’ hopes might hinge on disrupting Sevilla’s passing lanes and preventing Agoume from having too much influence.

Wide Areas: The flanks will be another crucial area. Las Palmas will look to Marvin Park and Fuster to exploit any space left by Sevilla’s full-backs, Montiel and Pedrosa. On the other hand, Sevilla’s wide attackers, Ocampos and Lukebakio, will aim to isolate Las Palmas’ full-backs and create one-on-one situations.

Aerial Duels: Given McBurnie’s prowess in the air, Sevilla’s centre-backs Bade and Nianzou will need to be at their best. McBurnie’s ability to hold up the ball and bring others into play could be a significant factor if Las Palmas are to threaten Sevilla’s goal.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams

Las Palmas: The home side’s primary strength lies in their defensive organisation. Despite the turnover of players, Carrion has managed to instill a sense of discipline, as evidenced by their pre-season performances. However, their glaring weakness remains their attack. The lack of goals in pre-season, coupled with the loss of key offensive players from last season, suggests they might struggle to break down a solid Sevilla defence.

Sevilla: Sevilla’s main strength is their attacking depth. With players like Ocampos, Iheanacho, and Lukebakio, they possess the firepower to trouble any defence. However, their weakness could be the integration of so many new players, particularly in the midfield and defence. The lack of cohesion in these areas was evident in their pre-season loss to Liverpool, and if Las Palmas can exploit this, Sevilla might find themselves in a difficult position.

Managerial Battle: A Critique

García Pimienta: Pimienta’s decision to leave Las Palmas for Sevilla was a bold move, and his intimate knowledge of his former side should theoretically give him an advantage. However, there are significant doubts about his ability to manage at this level, particularly after Sevilla’s struggles in recent seasons.

The pressure will be immense, and Pimienta’s inexperience in handling such a big club could be his undoing. His tactical approach, while well-suited to Las Palmas, may not translate well to a team with higher expectations and more demanding supporters.

Luis Carrion: Carrion, on the other hand, is a manager on the rise. His work at Oviedo was impressive, and he has the potential to build something special at Las Palmas. However, the timing of Pimienta’s departure and the subsequent squad overhaul have left him with a challenging task. His ability to motivate and organise this new-look team will be critical, but his lack of experience at the top level could see Las Palmas struggle if results don’t come quickly.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Commentary

Las Palmas: (4-4-2) Cillessen; Park, Marmol, McKenna, A Suarez; Munoz, K Rodriguez, Campana, Fuster; Sandro, McBurnie.

This lineup suggests a solid, defensively-minded approach from Las Palmas, with a focus on quick transitions and exploiting the wings. The inclusion of new signings like McKenna and McBurnie highlights Carrion’s intent to strengthen the spine of the team, while the likes of Park and Fuster provide the pace and creativity needed to break down Sevilla’s defence.

Sevilla: (4-3-3) Nyland; Montiel, Bade, Nianzou, Pedrosa; Sow, Agoume, Gudelj; Ocampos, Iheanacho, Lukebakio.

Sevilla’s lineup indicates a more progressive, possession-based style under Pimienta, with a strong emphasis on controlling the midfield and feeding their dynamic front three. The inclusion of new signings like Agoume and Iheanacho suggests a desire to inject fresh energy into a squad that underperformed last season. However, the absence of key players like Suso and Saul could expose some vulnerabilities, particularly in transitions.

Predictions and Betting Angles

Best Bet: Sevilla to Win

Given the disparity in quality and the inside knowledge that Pimienta has of Las Palmas, a Sevilla victory seems the most likely outcome. Las Palmas’ pre-season struggles and lack of firepower suggest they will find it difficult to breach Sevilla’s defence, while Sevilla’s attacking options should prove too much for the home side. Expect Sevilla to control the game and secure a win, albeit possibly by a narrow margin.

Correct Score Prediction: Las Palmas 0-2 Sevilla

Reflecting the likely dynamic of the game, a 2-0 victory for Sevilla seems a reasonable prediction. Las Palmas’ inability to score against top opposition in pre-season, coupled with Sevilla’s superior attacking options, points to a comfortable win for the visitors. Sevilla’s defence, despite some concerns, should be able to handle Las Palmas’ limited attacking threat, while the likes of Iheanacho and Lukebakio are capable of finding the back of the net.

Goalscorer Prediction: Kelechi Iheanacho to Score Anytime

Iheanacho, fresh from his arrival at Sevilla, is likely to be the focal point of their attack. His ability to find space in the box and finish chances makes him a prime candidate to score against a Las Palmas defence that, while organised, may struggle with his movement and physicality. Iheanacho’s debut could well be marked by a goal, especially given the service he is likely to receive from Ocampos and Lukebakio.

Corner Prediction: Sevilla to Win the Corner Count and Over 9.5 Corners in the Match

Sevilla’s style of play, which emphasises wide play and crossing, is likely to lead to a high number of corners. Las Palmas, if they find themselves under pressure, will likely concede several corners as they defend deep. Given the expected pattern of play, Sevilla should win the corner count, and the total number of corners in the match should exceed 9.5.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target: Sevilla Over 5.5

Sevilla’s attacking trio of Ocampos, Iheanacho, and Lukebakio should generate plenty of shooting opportunities against a Las Palmas side that may struggle to cope with their pace and movement. Even if Las Palmas defend deep, Sevilla’s ability to create chances from various angles should see them register over 5.5 shots on target in the match, making this a strong betting angle.

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