Las Palmas vs Alaves predictions ahead of this affair in La Liga on Sunday. Las Palmas and Alaves face off in the final La Liga gameweek at Estadio Gran Canaria on Sunday, eager to end their seasons with a win. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
La Liga | Gameweek 38 – May 26, 2024 at 3.15pm UK at Estadio de Gran Canaria
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Las Palmas vs Alaves Predictions
Las Palmas vs. Alaves: Can Alaves Secure a Top-Half Finish?
Key Stats
– Las Palmas have failed to score in nine of their last 13 matches.
– Alaves have netted in their last six visits to Gran Canaria.
– Samuel Omorodion is Alaves’ top scorer with nine goals this season.
As the La Liga season draws to a close, Las Palmas host Alaves at Estadio Gran Canaria on Sunday. Both teams aim to end their campaigns on a high note, with Las Palmas seeking a positive finish after a challenging season and Alaves looking to secure a top-half finish. This article delves into the tactical nuances, key player battles, and provides predictions for the upcoming encounter.
Las Palmas’ Struggles and Tactical Approach
Las Palmas have endured a tumultuous season, flirting with relegation for much of the campaign. Managed by Garcia Pimienta, the team has struggled to find consistency, highlighted by an extended winless run since February. Their inability to score goals has been a significant issue, with nine of their last 13 matches ending without a goal.
Las Palmas’ tactical approach has relied on maintaining possession, as indicated by their average possession rate of 59.6%. Despite this, their lack of penetration and finishing has been apparent. Key players like Kirian Rodriguez, who is the team’s top scorer with six goals, and Alberto Moleiro, with three goals, need to step up if Las Palmas are to end their season positively.
Alaves’ Mid-Table Stability
In contrast, Alaves have had a relatively stable season, comfortably securing their place in La Liga. Luis Garcia Plaza has guided his team to a mid-table position, a commendable achievement for a side promoted via the playoffs. Their current standing reflects their consistent performances, with the team aiming to finish in the top half for the first time since 2016-17.
Alaves’ success has been built on a solid defensive foundation and effective counter-attacks. Players like Samuel Omorodion, their top scorer with nine goals, and Luis Rioja, who has contributed five goals, have been instrumental. Alaves’ ability to score crucial goals and maintain defensive solidity has been key to their success this season.
Key Tactical Battles
Midfield Control: The midfield battle will be crucial, with Las Palmas’ Enzo Loiodice and Kirian Rodriguez up against Alaves’ Jon Guridi and Carlos Vicente. Las Palmas will aim to dominate possession and control the tempo, while Alaves will look to disrupt their rhythm and exploit counter-attacking opportunities.
Wide Areas: Las Palmas’ full-backs, particularly Alex Suarez and Sergi Cardona, will need to provide width and support the attack. Alaves’ wingers, like Luis Rioja and Ianis Hagi, will aim to exploit any defensive lapses and create scoring opportunities.
Striker Duel: Kirian Rodriguez’s ability to find space and finish chances will be crucial for Las Palmas. Conversely, Alaves’ Samuel Omorodion will need to use his physicality and aerial prowess to trouble Las Palmas’ defence.
Expected Lineups
Las Palmas:
- Goalkeeper: Valles
- Defenders: Suarez, Coco, Marmol, Cardona
- Midfielders: Loiodice, Rodriguez, Moleiro
- Forwards: Park, Ramirez, El Haddadi
Alaves:
- Goalkeeper: Owono
- Defenders: Gorosabel, Marin, Abqar, Lopez
- Midfielders: Hagi, Guevara, Vicente, Guridi
- Forwards: Omorodion, Simeone
Las Palmas are expected to stick with their 4-3-3 formation, emphasising possession and quick transitions. Alaves, likely to play in a 4-4-2 setup, will focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacking opportunities.
Areas for Improvement and Tactical Insights
Las Palmas:
- Strengths: High possession rate, effective in maintaining control.
- Weaknesses: Lack of goals, recent poor form.
- Improvement: Enhancing creativity in the final third and converting chances.
Alaves:
- Strengths: Solid defensive structure, effective counter-attacks.
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent goal-scoring.
- Improvement: Increasing attacking threat and maintaining concentration throughout the match.
Managerial Strengths and Criticism
Garcia Pimienta has managed to keep Las Palmas in La Liga despite significant challenges, but his team’s inability to score has raised questions about his tactical flexibility. On the other hand, Luis Garcia Plaza has successfully guided Alaves to mid-table stability, though his team’s occasional lapses in concentration have been a concern.
Expected Goals Analysis
Las Palmas’ expected goals (xG) average of 0.9 per game highlights their offensive struggles, while their defensive xG of 1.2 indicates they concede more than they score. Alaves’ xG of 0.9 and defensive xG of 1.2 reflect a similar trend, showing a balanced but cautious approach. This suggests a low-scoring game, with both teams focusing on defensive solidity.
Predictions
Best Bet: Alaves to Win to Nil
Given both teams’ offensive struggles and Alaves’ solid defensive record, predicting Alaves to win to nil seems plausible. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalise on Las Palmas’ inability to score supports this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Las Palmas 0-1 Alaves
With Alaves’ defensive solidity and Las Palmas’ scoring woes, a narrow 1-0 victory for Alaves is likely. Alaves’ ability to edge out a goal and maintain a clean sheet aligns with this prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Samuel Omorodion to Score Anytime
Samuel Omorodion, as Alaves’ top scorer, is the most likely candidate to find the net. His physical presence and finishing ability make him a strong contender to score anytime during the match.
First Team to Score: Alaves
Alaves’ superior form and Las Palmas’ defensive vulnerabilities suggest that Alaves are more likely to score first. Their ability to exploit counter-attacking opportunities supports this prediction.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target for Alaves Over 3.5
Considering Alaves’ need to push for a win and their offensive efforts, predicting over 3.5 shots on target for Alaves is a strong market. Their attacking intent, despite occasional struggles, supports this.
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