Italy vs Turkey Predictions

Italy vs Turkey predictions ahead of their friendly in Bologna. Reigning champions Italy face Turkey in Bologna on Tuesday evening, stepping up their Euro 2024 preparations with an international friendly. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

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Friendlies | Jun 4, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara

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Italy vs Turkey Predictions

Italy and Turkey Set for a Tactical Battle in Pre-Euro 2024 Friendly

Key Stats

– Italy have won six of their last seven home games, showcasing their strong form on home soil.

– Turkey have scored in three of their last four games, highlighting their attacking threat despite recent defeats.

– Italy’s Mateo Retegui has been in fine form and is likely to find the net in this match.

The upcoming friendly between Italy and Turkey in Bologna serves as a crucial preparatory match for both teams ahead of their Euro 2024 campaigns. Italy, the reigning European champions, aim to fine-tune their squad under new management, while Turkey looks to bounce back from recent heavy defeats and build momentum. This article delves into the form, expected line-ups, tactical nuances, and predictions for the match.

Italy’s Form and Tactical Approach

Italy’s path to Euro 2024 has been steady, if not spectacular. Under Luciano Spalletti, who took over after Roberto Mancini’s sudden departure, the Azzurri have shown resilience and adaptability. Italy secured their place in the tournament by finishing second in Group C, narrowly avoiding a playoff. Recent friendlies have been used to experiment with tactics and personnel, resulting in victories against Venezuela and Ecuador during their US tour.

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Spalletti is expected to field a competitive side, with the probable starting XI including:

  • Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
  • Defenders: Matteo Darmian, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alessandro Bastoni
  • Midfielders: Nicolo Barella, Jorginho, Federico Dimarco
  • Forwards: Lorenzo Pellegrini, Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui

With key players like Ciro Immobile and Domenico Berardi sidelined, Spalletti will rely on emerging talents such as Retegui and Raspadori to lead the attack. Donnarumma’s leadership from the back will be crucial, especially with a relatively young defensive line in front of him.

Turkey’s Recent Struggles and Adjustments

Turkey’s recent form has been inconsistent, highlighted by a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Austria. Under Vincenzo Montella, the team has shown flashes of potential but has struggled to maintain consistency. Despite topping their Euro 2024 qualifying group, Turkey’s defensive frailties have been exposed in recent friendlies.

Montella’s side is expected to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation, with the likely starting XI featuring:

  • Goalkeeper: Ugurcan Cakir
  • Defenders: Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Kaan Ayhan, Cenk Ozkacar
  • Midfielders: Hakan Calhanoglu, Salih Ozcan, Arda Guler
  • Forwards: Serdar Dursun, Enes Unal, Kerem Akturkoglu

The absence of key players like Caglar Soyuncu and Cengiz Under due to injuries puts additional pressure on Calhanoglu to drive the midfield and create opportunities. The defence, led by Demiral, will need to tighten up to avoid another rout.

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Key Tactical Battles

The midfield duel between Italy’s Nicolo Barella and Turkey’s Hakan Calhanoglu will be pivotal. Barella’s dynamism and ability to break up play will be crucial against Calhanoglu’s creativity and vision. Another critical battle will be between Italy’s forwards, particularly Mateo Retegui, and Turkey’s defensive line. Retegui’s movement and finishing will test Demiral and Ayhan’s coordination and resilience.

Gameplay Predictions

Italy are expected to control possession, leveraging their superior technical skills and tactical discipline. Spalletti’s side will likely employ a high press to disrupt Turkey’s build-up play and create scoring opportunities through quick transitions. Turkey, conversely, will aim to defend compactly and exploit counter-attacking chances, relying on the pace of Akturkoglu and the creativity of Calhanoglu.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Italy’s offensive statistics from the qualifiers, averaging 2 goals per game and 16 total shots per game, indicate a potent attack. Their xG reflects a team capable of creating and converting chances efficiently. Turkey, while less prolific, still average 1.8 goals per game, showing they can be dangerous if given opportunities.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Italy’s Strengths:

  • Defensive Solidity: Conceding only 9 goals in their qualifiers highlights their defensive strength.
  • Midfield Control: Players like Jorginho and Barella provide stability and creativity.
  • Home Advantage: Italy’s strong home record adds to their confidence.


  • Injuries to Key Players: The absence of Immobile and Berardi could impact their attacking options.
  • Transition Phases: Adaptation to Spalletti’s system is still ongoing, which could lead to lapses.

Turkey’s Strengths:

  • Midfield Creativity: Calhanoglu’s ability to create chances from midfield is crucial.
  • Counter-Attacking Threat: With pacey forwards, Turkey can exploit spaces left by attacking opponents.


  • Defensive Vulnerabilities: Recent heavy defeats highlight defensive lapses.
  • Inconsistent Form: Mixed results indicate a lack of stability.

Managerial Critique

Luciano Spalletti has revitalised Italy with his tactical acumen and ability to motivate the squad. His approach has brought stability, but the team is still adapting to his style. Montella’s tenure with Turkey has shown promise but is marred by inconsistency. His challenge is to instil a more robust defensive structure without stifling their attacking potential.

Betting Angles and Predictions


Best Bet for the Match: Draw

Given Italy’s strong home form and Turkey’s recent struggles, a draw seems a balanced prediction. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities that could prevent either from securing a win.

Correct Score Prediction: Italy 1-1 Turkey

Considering both teams’ defensive issues and attacking capabilities, a 1-1 draw is plausible. Italy’s home advantage is balanced by Turkey’s potential to exploit counter-attacking opportunities.

Goalscorer Prediction: Mateo Retegui to Score Anytime

Retegui, likely to start in Immobile’s absence, has the finishing ability to find the net. His recent form and positioning make him a strong candidate to score.

First Half Result: Italy Leading at Half Time

Italy’s tendency to start games strongly and Turkey’s recent defensive lapses suggest Italy will likely lead at halftime. Their pressing game could yield early goals.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 8.5

Italy’s aggressive attacking approach, averaging 4.5 shots on target per game, makes this a reasonable prediction. Against a defensively weak Turkey, Italy will aim to maximise their shooting opportunities.

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Luca Pratesi
Born in Milan and an ardent AC Milan supporter, Luca Pratesi brings a wealth of experience to BettingTips4You. Having written for renowned publications like Gazzetta dello Sport, Luca's passion for sports betting and tipping shines through his meticulous game analysis and keen eye for finding value. With an impressive track record, he joined BettingTips4You in 2024, eager to share his insights and help readers make informed betting decisions. Luca's deep knowledge and love for the sport make him a valuable asset to the team and a trusted source for betting tips.