Italy vs Moldova Predictions

Italy vs Moldova predictions ahead of this World Cup qualifier on Monday night. Italy, desperate to recover from a poor World Cup 2026 qualifying start, aim for redemption by defeating Moldova on Monday. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.

World Cup Qualifying | June 9 2025 at 7:45 pm UK at MAPEI Stadium – Citta del Tricolore

Italy vs Moldova Predictions

Can Italy Finally Silence Their Doubters or Will Moldova Add to the Chaos?

• Defensive Meltdown in Moldova: The Tricolorii have shipped eight goals in just their first two group matches, including five at home to Norway—leaving their defence wide open for another collapse.
• Italy’s Home Comforts Against Minnows: In their last qualifying campaign, the Azzurri scored nine goals in two home games against Malta and North Macedonia, showing their tendency to dominate weaker sides.
• Moldova’s Shot-Shy Crisis: During their 5-0 defeat to Norway, Moldova allowed 24 attempts on goal, underlining just how porous and unorganised their defensive structure really is.

Best Bet for Italy vs Moldova 

In the soft early summer haze of Reggio Emilia, the stage is set for a clash that seems, on the surface, like a routine fixture—Italy versus Moldova. But nothing is routine anymore when it comes to the Azzurri and their turbulent qualification history. What should have been a straightforward march to the World Cup now feels like a series of landmines, with every misstep sending fresh tremors through the nation’s footballing psyche.

After a humbling 3-0 battering in Oslo at the hands of a vibrant Norway side, Italy are already clinging to qualification hopes that look thinner than a slice of prosciutto. Spalletti’s men were all style and no substance in their Group I opener—plenty of possession, none of the punch. The return to the Mapei Stadium, home to newly promoted Sassuolo, offers a much-needed breath of air. But even then, breathing won’t be easy with pressure suffocating every move. Moldova, historically battered by the Italians, come into this match wounded and wobbly but oddly buoyed by the idea that anything can happen when your opponent is on the verge of implosion.

On Monday, Moldova may not just be chasing points—they’ll be chasing ghosts of Italian glory, hoping to add another painful chapter to an already sorry saga.

Best Bet for Italy vs Moldova: Italy to Win & Over 2.5 Goals

Here at BettingTips4You.com, we don’t throw darts at a betting board hoping one sticks. We give you the one prediction that truly matters. Quality over quantity—it’s what makes us proud and keeps our readers sane. No juggling ten bets, no “maybe this, maybe that”. Just the ultimate call: Italy to Win & Over 2.5 Goals.

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Why This Is the Bet to Back

Let’s start with the obvious. Moldova are not just underdogs in this one—they’re more like sheep in wolf territory. Their defensive record speaks for itself, or rather, screams in terror. Conceding five goals at home to Norway and then three to Estonia doesn’t scream resilience. It yells fragility. In fact, the Moldovans gave up a stomach-turning 24 shots to the Norwegians—at home. Now imagine what Italy might do to them in Reggio Emilia, a place where the locals are more passionate about football than their own pasta sauce.

Italy, for all their tactical tedium in Oslo, still created the game’s only shot on target—a desperate header from Lorenzo Lucca deep into injury time. Not much, but a glimmer. That flicker of frustration could now ignite a fire. Spalletti is under immense scrutiny. His 3-5-2 system, which looked more like a broken accordion in Norway, will see fresh blood. Cambiaso, Ricci and Frattesi are tipped to start, bringing energy and unpredictability to a midfield that badly needs both.

And let’s not forget the absence of several key names—Locatelli, Kean, Calafiori. It forces reinvention, which can often be a blessing in disguise. The returning Gianluigi Donnarumma, whose form mirrors that of a melancholic poet lately, will be eager to reassert control from the back.

Up top, Retegui and Raspadori are expected to lead the charge. Retegui, in particular, has found a knack for popping up in the right place at the right time, and Moldova’s defence has a knack for being in the wrong place most of the time. With Ionita and Motpan flailing in midfield and their only ray of hope, Nicolaescu, likely to be starved of service, Moldova may spend 90 minutes chasing shadows.

To add a cherry on top, Italy’s last home qualifiers before this campaign included scorelines like 4-0 vs Malta and 5-2 against North Macedonia. Not exactly thrillers, but a clear indicator that when the Azzurri face minnows on home soil, they do feast.

“Italy can’t afford another slip—and when this team is pushed to the brink, they tend to bite back hard. A comfortable win is on the cards, but with added flair to shut the critics up,”
BettingTips4You.com expert quote – Luca Pratesi

So yes, Italy to win is predictable. But with a wounded manager, desperate squad and a point to prove? Expect them to add flair, fire—and a few extra goals—to their fury.

Predicted Scoreline: Italy 4-0 Moldova
This slightly revised take accounts for Moldova’s dreadful defensive structure and Italy’s need to not only win, but make a statement. A clean sheet and a goal-fest seem written in the stars—or at least in Moldova’s backline.

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