Italy vs Israel Predictions

Italy vs Israel Predictions for this Nations League meeting in Bergamo. Following a costly moment of madness in their previous match, Italy will look to maintain their position atop League A Group 2 when they host Israel in the UEFA Nations League on Monday evening in Udine. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips

Nations League | League A | Oct 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Global Energy Stadium

Italy vs Israel Predictions

Can Israel Upset Italy’s Nations League Campaign?

• Italy’s strong attack vs Israel’s weak defence
  • Italy have averaged 2.3 goals per game in the Nations League so far, while Israel have conceded an average of 3 goals per match, a worrying trend for the visitors.
• Israel’s struggle in defence
  • Israel have committed 2 defensive errors leading directly to goals in their three Nations League matches, highlighting their fragility at the back.
• Italy’s dominance in possession
  • The Azzurri boast an average of 46.3% ball possession and 408 accurate passes per game, a clear indication that Israel will spend most of the match on the back foot.

Our Tips

As the UEFA Nations League enters a critical phase, Italy are set to face Israel in what promises to be a highly charged encounter. The Azzurri are keen to bounce back from their recent draw against Belgium and solidify their position at the top of Group 2. Their opponents, Israel, are languishing at the bottom of the table, winless and desperate for some points to avoid certain relegation. The setting is the Stadio Friuli in Udine, where Italy will be confident of securing all three points against a side that has struggled in both defence and attack throughout the tournament.

The match arrives at an interesting juncture for both sides. Italy, who were cruising against Belgium before being reduced to ten men due to Lorenzo Pellegrini’s red card, will be eager to regain their winning ways. Meanwhile, Israel, after a series of humbling defeats, will be hoping to spring a surprise, though the odds are very much stacked against them. It’s a classic underdog scenario, but in football, anything can happen on the night.

Best Bet: Draw/Italy Half Time/Full Time

Given the disparity in form and talent between these two teams, Italy should have enough to see off Israel in this fixture. However, don’t expect the Azzurri to fly out of the blocks and run riot straight away. With Israel adopting a more defensive approach to avoid further humiliation, Italy may take some time to break them down. Therefore, backing the Draw/Italy Half Time/Full Time outcome seems like a sensible bet.

Italy have shown that they can dominate possession and build pressure, but breaking down teams that park the bus is always a challenge. Israel’s defensive frailties have been exposed throughout this Nations League campaign, but it’s worth noting that they’ve managed to frustrate teams for long periods before eventually caving in. In their last encounter with France, Israel held firm until midway through the first half before the floodgates opened. Expect something similar here—Italy may find it hard to unlock Israel early on but should eventually prevail.

Italy’s attacking options are somewhat limited with key injuries, but they still possess enough firepower in the likes of Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui to break through. Retegui, in particular, has found some form recently and should be pivotal in breaking Israel’s defensive line. His close-range finishing ability could be the key to unlocking what will likely be a compact Israeli backline. The absence of Lorenzo Pellegrini due to suspension might disrupt Italy’s midfield creativity a bit, but players like Sandro Tonali should step up to dictate the pace.

Israel, for their part, will look to sit deep and absorb pressure, but their defensive record doesn’t inspire much confidence. They’ve conceded three goals per game on average in this tournament, and while they may hold Italy off for a while, their defensive errors are likely to be their undoing once again. “The Azzurri have shown resilience after setbacks, and with their possession-heavy style, they will wear down Israel’s resistance eventually,” BettingTips4You.com expert Luca Pratesi predicts. “It’s hard to see this one going any other way than an Italy win, but it may take time for them to crack Israel’s defensive shell.”

Correct Score Prediction: Italy 2-1 Israel

Building on the rationale that Israel can hold out for a while but will eventually fall behind, the most likely scoreline for this match looks like a 2-1 win for Italy. While Italy are expected to control the game, Israel have demonstrated that they can still find the back of the net even in defeat. They’ve scored in all of their Nations League matches so far, despite losing every one. Their lone striker, Tai Baribo, has shown flashes of quality, and with Omri Gandelman and Oscar Gloukh supporting him, Israel are capable of nicking a goal.

Italy’s defence has been solid but not impenetrable. They’ve conceded in each of their Nations League matches to date, and with Israel’s tendency to counter, there’s every chance they could exploit a rare lapse in concentration. However, Italy’s overall superiority should see them through with a narrow win. Two goals seem about right for the Azzurri, given their attacking stats and Israel’s leaky defence. Expect a fairly tight affair that could open up as the game wears on, but Italy’s class should see them secure the victory.

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