Italy vs Estonia Predictions

Italy faces Estonia in a crunch World Cup qualifier in Bergamo. Gennaro Gattuso starts his tenure as Italy coach with a home World Cup qualifier, expected to be a comfortable opening test for the Azzurri. Read on for our match prediction and best bets.

World Cup | Sep 5 2025 at 7:45 pm UK at Gewiss Stadium

Italy vs Estonia Predictions

Can Gattuso’s Azzurri Lay Down a Statement in Bergamo?

• Italian control at home
  • Italy have won two of their last three home qualifiers without conceding, showing a steady ability to get results while protecting their goal.
• Estonia’s scoring woes
  • Estonia have drawn a blank in six of their last ten competitive games, including defeats in three of their four previous trips to Italy.
• Limited winning margins for Azzurri
  • Italy have managed just one win by more than two goals in their last nineteen matches, underlining why a measured 2-0 or 2-1 feels most realistic.

Best Bet for Italy vs Estonia

Friday night in Bergamo has the potential to be both a new dawn and a nervous watch for Italian fans. Gennaro Gattuso steps out for his first competitive fixture in charge of the Azzurri, with Estonia the opponents at Gewiss Stadium. On paper, it looks a soft start. In reality, Italy are already under heavy pressure, trailing Norway by nine points in Group I and with no margin for error if they want to avoid the dreaded play-offs.

Italy’s last outing, a 2-0 win against Moldova, hinted at progress, with Giacomo Raspadori and Andrea Cambiaso on the scoresheet. The performance was energetic, possession-heavy, and aggressive in pressing. But doubts remain: Italy have shipped 11 goals in their last six matches and inconsistency has been a running theme.

Estonia arrive in Bergamo without much to lose, and that makes them dangerous in their own awkward way. Jurgen Henn’s men beat Moldova earlier in the group, but defeats to Israel and Norway exposed familiar weaknesses at both ends. They lack firepower, they struggle to defend against pace, and they tend to fade when the pressure cranks up. Yet, as we all know, football has a wicked sense of humour, and this Italian side cannot afford to get complacent.

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Best Bet for this Match

Our Best Bet for this fixture is Italy to win to nil. At BettingTips4You, we don’t scatter you with endless choices; we highlight the single strongest selection. Quality beats quantity every time, and this one carries both logic and value.

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Why Back This Prediction

First, the numbers speak loudly. Italy have beaten Estonia in all seven of their previous encounters, and five of those victories came with clean sheets. The defensive concerns that have plagued the Azzurri in recent months should be eased by the fact that Estonia often look blunt in attack. They’ve failed to score in six of their last ten competitive matches, and in Bergamo, up against a fired-up Italian side, it feels unlikely that trend changes.

Then there’s the sheer difference in squad depth. Italy’s midfield options – Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Mikkel Damsgaard, Matt O’Riley, and Morten Hjulmand – wait, sorry wrong text earlier, let’s stay sharp: Gattuso has brought back Riccardo Califiori and handed Giovanni Leoni his chance. The team showed against Moldova that they can keep possession high (66%) and turn it into pressure. With Raspadori’s sharp finishing and Cambiaso’s intelligent movement, Italy finally look like they have an edge going forward again.

Estonia, by contrast, created just two shots on target in their last match against Norway. That tells you everything. They’ll defend deep, they’ll hope to frustrate, but when you’ve conceded nine goals in your last six and only won once in this qualifying run, the writing feels on the wall.

As Luca Pratesi of BettingTips4You.com put it:

“Italy have no room for slip-ups, and against an Estonia side who simply don’t carry a threat, the win to nil is the safest and smartest play.”

Of course, there’s always the lingering fear that Italy could make life harder than it needs to be. They’ve only managed to win by more than two goals once in their last nineteen matches, which is a staggering stat. That’s why instead of overcomplicating matters with handicaps, backing the clean sheet victory feels the most reliable.

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Likely Correct Score

The scoreline that looks most realistic is 2-0 Italy. Gattuso’s men should score in both halves, but this side hasn’t been ruthless enough to expect a thrashing. Estonia will sit deep, and Italy will eventually find the breakthrough.

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