Italy vs Bosnia and Herzegovina predictions ahead of this friendly clash. Italy will wrap up Euro 2024 prep against Bosnia-Herzegovina at Stadio Carlo Castellani on Sunday. Italy aims to extend their unbeaten run to six, while Bosnia seeks to end a five-game losing streak. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Friendlies: | Jun 9, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadio Carlo Castellani
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Italy vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Predictions
Italy to Test Their Euro 2024 Readiness Against Bosnia-Herzegovina
Key Stats
– Italy have an average xG of 2 per game in their Euro 2024 qualification campaign.
– Bosnia have conceded 16 goals in their last five matches.
– Italy average 16 shots per game, compared to Bosnia’s 10.2.
Italy are set to wrap up their Euro 2024 preparations with a friendly against Bosnia-Herzegovina at the Stadio Carlo Castellani. While the Azzurri aim to extend their unbeaten streak to six matches, the Dragons seek to end a five-game losing run that dates back to October last year. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming match, focusing on team form, tactical insights, expected lineups, key player duels, and strategic dynamics, concluding with well-supported predictions.
Team Form and Recent Performances
Italy’s Recent Form
Since taking over from Roberto Mancini in September last year, Luciano Spalletti has guided Italy to a promising start. The Azzurri, ranked ninth in the world by FIFA, are unbeaten in 2024, having secured successive friendly wins against Venezuela and Ecuador before drawing 0-0 with Turkey. Their recent internal warm-up match against the Under-20s saw Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori, and Stephan El Shaarawy score in a 3-1 win. Spalletti has expressed satisfaction with the team’s preparations, highlighting the strong group dynamic as they aim to defend their European crown.
Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Struggles
In contrast, Bosnia have had a tough time, failing to qualify for Euro 2024 after finishing fifth in their group. Their qualification campaign included only three wins, two of which came against minnows Liechtenstein. The departure of head coach Savo Milosevic after a semi-final playoff loss to Ukraine saw Sergej Barbarez take charge. Barbarez’s tenure started with a 3-0 defeat to England, where Bosnia managed no shots on target and held just 29% possession. Ranked 74th by FIFA, Bosnia now seek their first-ever win against Italy and their first friendly away victory since 2018.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Insights
Italy’s Possible Lineup and Approach
Italy’s expected lineup includes Donnarumma in goal, with a defence comprising Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, and Dimarco. The midfield trio of Cristante, Jorginho, and Pellegrini is expected to provide stability, while Raspadori, Chiesa, and Scamacca will spearhead the attack. This lineup indicates a balanced approach, combining defensive solidity with attacking prowess, essential for maintaining possession and controlling the game’s tempo.
Bosnia’s Possible Lineup and Approach
Bosnia’s expected lineup features Piric in goal, with a backline of Radeljic, Katic, Ahmedhodzic, Hadzikadunic, and Gazibegovic. The midfield will likely see Gigovoc, Krunic, Tahirovic, and Hajradinovic, with Demirovic leading the attack. This formation suggests a focus on defensive organisation and counter-attacking opportunities, aiming to exploit any gaps in Italy’s defence.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle between Italy’s Jorginho and Bosnia’s Krunic will be pivotal. Jorginho’s ability to control the game’s pace with his passing and vision will be tested against Krunic’s physicality and work rate. Another crucial duel will be between Italy’s Federico Chiesa and Bosnia’s Ahmedhodzic. Chiesa’s dribbling and speed can create numerous scoring opportunities, while Ahmedhodzic’s defensive capabilities will be crucial in neutralising this threat.
Gameplay Predictions and Tactical Dynamics
Given Italy’s recent form and Bosnia’s defensive vulnerabilities, the match is likely to see Italy dominating possession and creating multiple scoring opportunities. Italy’s tactical approach will involve quick ball movement and exploiting the flanks, where Chiesa and Raspadori can wreak havoc. Bosnia, on the other hand, might adopt a more conservative strategy, focusing on defensive solidity and looking for counter-attacking chances through Demirovic.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Italy
Strengths: Italy’s strengths lie in their defensive organisation and midfield control. Players like Donnarumma and Mancini provide a solid defensive foundation, while Jorginho and Pellegrini are adept at maintaining possession and dictating the game’s flow.
Weaknesses: Despite their defensive strengths, Italy have struggled to convert possession into goals consistently. Their reliance on structured play can sometimes make them predictable, and they need to improve their finishing to ensure success in the final third.
Bosnia
Strengths: Bosnia’s primary strength is their defensive organisation. Players like Ahmedhodzic and Piric provide stability at the back. Their midfielders are capable of breaking up play and initiating counter-attacks.
Weaknesses: Bosnia’s main weakness is their lack of attacking threat. They have struggled to create and convert scoring opportunities, as evidenced by their recent performances. Their over-reliance on defensive tactics often leaves them vulnerable to sustained pressure.
Managerial Analysis
Italy’s Luciano Spalletti
Spalletti’s tenure has seen Italy adopt a more disciplined and structured approach. His focus on defensive organisation and tactical discipline has been crucial in maintaining Italy’s unbeaten run. However, his conservative approach sometimes stifles the team’s attacking potential, and he needs to encourage more creative freedom in the final third.
Bosnia’s Sergej Barbarez
Barbarez has faced criticism for Bosnia’s lacklustre performances. His tactical decisions, particularly in managing defensive transitions and in-game adjustments, have been questioned. While Barbarez has shown the ability to organise a sturdy defence, his approach needs more dynamism to turn defensive resilience into attacking opportunities.
Expected Goals and Performance Metrics
Analysing the expected goals (xG) metrics provides deeper insight into the teams’ attacking efficiency. Italy’s average xG of 2 per game indicates a strong offensive capability, supported by their 16 shots per game. Conversely, Bosnia have an xG of 0.9 per game, with an average of 10.2 shots. These figures suggest that Italy generate a higher number of quality scoring opportunities compared to Bosnia.
Predictions
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Considering Italy’s solid defence and Bosnia’s attacking struggles, the best bet for this match is under 1.5 goals. Italy’s organised defence is likely to limit Bosnia’s scoring chances, while Italy’s conservative approach might not yield a high-scoring game.
Correct Score Prediction: Italy 1-0 Bosnia
Reflecting Italy’s defensive strength and Bosnia’s lack of firepower, a 1-0 win for Italy seems plausible. Italy’s structured play and defensive organisation will likely secure a narrow victory.
Goalscorer Prediction: Federico Chiesa to Score
Federico Chiesa, Italy’s forward, is likely to find the net. His ability to exploit defensive lapses and create scoring opportunities makes him a key threat, especially against a Bosnia side that has shown defensive frailties.
First Half Result: Italy to Lead at Half-Time
Given Italy’s tendency to start strongly and Bosnia’s defensive approach, Italy are likely to lead at half-time. Italy’s superior ball control and attacking threats should enable them to secure an early advantage.
Innovative Market: Total Cards Over 3.5
Considering the physical nature of both teams, predicting over 3.5 total cards is a viable market. Both teams have shown tendencies towards committing fouls, and with the competitive nature of this match, the likelihood of multiple bookings is high.
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