Italy vs Albania Predictions

Italy vs Albania predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. Italy begin their Euro 2024 title defence against Group B rivals Albania on Saturday evening as both nations start their campaigns. Read on for out free match and betting tips

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 15, 2024 at 8pm UK at Signal-Iduna-Park

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Italy vs Albania Predictions

Tactical Showdown in Germany: Italy and Albania Clash in Euro 2024 Opener

Italy and Albania will face off in the opening match of their Euro 2024 campaign. This Group B fixture holds significant importance for both teams as they aim to start their tournament on a high note. While Italy are focused on defending their European title, Albania are eager to make a mark in their second major tournament appearance.

Italy’s Form and Aspirations

Italy come into this tournament with a legacy to uphold. The Azzurri have won the European Championship twice and are aiming to join Germany and Spain as the only teams with three titles. Despite not being considered among the favourites, Italy have been unbeaten in their last six matches, demonstrating resilience and tactical solidity under Luciano Spalletti. Since Spalletti took over, Italy have recorded six wins and three draws, securing their place in the tournament after a nervy qualifying campaign.

However, injuries have plagued the squad. Key defenders Francesco Acerbi and Giorgio Scalvini are out, along with Nicolo Zaniolo and Domenico Berardi. Midfielders Davide Frattesi, Nicolo Fagioli, and Nicolo Barella are expected to play despite recent knocks. Captain Gianluigi Donnarumma will start in goal, while the choice for the striker position lies between Gianluca Scamacca and Mateo Retegui.

Albania’s Rise and Challenges

Albania’s journey to Euro 2024 has been impressive. After an initial defeat to Poland, they went unbeaten in their remaining qualifiers, finishing at the top of their group. This marks their second appearance at the Euros, and they aim to improve on their group-stage exit in 2016. Under the guidance of Brazilian coach Sylvinho, Albania have become a resilient team, boasting a solid defence that conceded just four goals in eight qualifiers.

Their squad features several players familiar with Italian football, including captain Berat Djimsiti of Atalanta and Inter Milan’s Kristjan Asllani. The attack will be led by Armando Broja, with support from Nedim Bajrami and Taulant Seferi. Despite being underdogs, Albania’s recent form suggests they could pose a significant challenge.

Expected Lineups

Italy: Donnarumma; Darmian, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Di Lorenzo, Cristante, Jorginho, Dimarco; Frattesi, Chiesa; Scamacca

Albania: E. Berisha; Hysaj, Ismajli, Djimsiti, Mitaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Asani, Bajrami, Seferi; Broja

The Italian lineup reflects Spalletti’s focus on a balanced team with a mix of experience and youth. Gianluca Scamacca is expected to lead the attack, supported by Federico Chiesa, who brings creativity and pace. In midfield, Jorginho will be pivotal in controlling the tempo, while the defence, led by Alessandro Buongiorno, aims to maintain their strong record.

For Albania, the emphasis will be on a solid defensive structure. Etrit Berisha in goal will be crucial, supported by experienced defenders like Elseid Hysaj and Ardian Ismajli. In attack, Armando Broja’s return from injury provides a boost, with Bajrami and Seferi offering additional threats.

Match Analysis and Key Areas

This match is likely to be a tactical battle, with Italy seeking to impose their possession-based style and Albania looking to capitalise on counter-attacks. Italy’s ability to break down a compact Albanian defence will be critical. The midfield battle between Jorginho and Asllani could decide the game’s tempo, while the duel between Scamacca and Djimsiti might be pivotal in the attacking third.

Albania’s defensive solidity will be tested by Italy’s fluid attacking movements. Conversely, Albania will hope to exploit Italy’s occasional lapses in concentration, particularly on the break. Both teams have shown resilience in recent matches, suggesting this encounter will be closely contested.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Italy have consistently showcased a balanced approach, leveraging their defensive solidity while maintaining a potent offence. Under Luciano Spalletti, Italy have prioritised ball possession and meticulous build-up play. This strategy involves Jorginho’s pivotal role in midfield, dictating the tempo and ensuring a smooth transition from defence to attack. Their defence, led by Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, has been particularly robust, conceding only six goals in their last 12 European Championship matches. Players like Alessandro Buongiorno and Alessandro Bastoni have been instrumental in maintaining a compact and disciplined backline, contributing to their clean sheet streak.

In contrast, Albania’s strategy under Sylvinho has been more defensive. Albania’s success in their qualification campaign was built on a strong defensive foundation, conceding only four goals in eight matches. They employ a deep-lying defensive line, often relying on quick counter-attacks to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. Berat Djimsiti, as captain, anchors the defence with his experience from Atalanta’s successful Europa League campaign. Albania’s midfield, led by Kristjan Asllani, focuses on breaking up opposition play and launching swift transitions to attack.

Individual Performances of Key Players

For Italy, Federico Chiesa and Davide Frattesi have been standout performers. Chiesa’s pace and dribbling ability make him a constant threat on the wings, creating numerous chances and keeping opposition defences on their toes. Frattesi, Italy’s top scorer in the qualifiers, has demonstrated a knack for making crucial runs into the box and finishing with precision. His performance against Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he scored the only goal, highlights his importance to the team.

Albania’s key players include Armando Broja and Kristjan Asllani. Broja, despite his struggles at the club level, remains a vital part of Albania’s attack, bringing physicality and aerial prowess to their forward line. Asllani, fresh from a title-winning season with Inter Milan, provides the creative spark in midfield, dictating play and creating opportunities for his teammates. Djimsiti’s leadership and defensive skills have also been crucial in maintaining Albania’s strong defensive record.

Managerial Impact on Team Performance

Luciano Spalletti’s tenure with Italy has seen a shift towards a more possession-oriented game. His tactical acumen and ability to adapt formations have been evident, especially in integrating young talents like Frattesi and Chiesa into the squad. Spalletti’s emphasis on a solid defensive base while encouraging fluid attacking movements has made Italy a formidable opponent.

Sylvinho, on the other hand, has instilled a sense of resilience and defensive discipline in Albania. His pragmatic approach has turned Albania into a hard-to-beat team, focusing on compactness and quick transitions. However, this conservative style might limit their offensive potential against stronger teams, a point of contention among fans and analysts.

Analysis of Expected Goals (xG)

Italy’s expected goals (xG) metrics indicate a strong attacking potential, averaging 2 goals per game in the qualifiers. Their ability to create high-quality chances is reflected in their shot volume and accuracy. Players like Chiesa and Frattesi contribute significantly to their xG through frequent attempts and positioning in dangerous areas.

Albania’s xG, while lower, reflects their defensive strategy. Averaging 1.5 goals per game, Albania rely on fewer but more efficient chances. Their xG metrics highlight a tendency to capitalise on set-pieces and counter-attacks, with Broja and Seferi being key contributors.

Tactical Comparison and Team Performance

Tactically, Italy are more versatile and aggressive, focusing on ball control and sustained pressure. Their defensive stability, combined with a dynamic midfield and forward line, makes them a balanced team. In contrast, Albania’s tactics are heavily defensive, relying on structure and discipline. This approach, while effective against weaker teams, might struggle against Italy’s relentless pressure.

Player performances further highlight these differences. Italy’s Frattesi and Chiesa are dynamic and influential in both creating and finishing chances. Albania’s reliance on Djimsiti for defensive solidity and Asllani for creative play underscores their focus on stability and counter-attacks.

Suggestions for Improvement

Italy could improve by enhancing their attacking fluidity. Despite their strong defensive record, their attack can sometimes be predictable. Introducing more creative plays and encouraging off-the-ball movements could make their offence more unpredictable and dangerous.

Albania, while defensively solid, need to improve their offensive output. Integrating more attacking drills and encouraging midfielders like Asllani to take more risks could help. Additionally, utilising Broja’s physicality and aerial ability more effectively in the final third could increase their goal-scoring opportunities.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Strategies

Italy’s strategy strengths lie in their balanced play and defensive organisation. Their midfield control, led by Jorginho, ensures dominance in possession. However, their attack can occasionally lack creativity against well-organised defences.

Albania’s defensive strategy is their primary strength. Their compact formation and disciplined approach make them tough to break down. Yet, this very conservatism can be their undoing, limiting their attacking potential and making them overly reliant on counter-attacks.

Managerial Critique

While Spalletti’s impact on Italy has been largely positive, his sometimes rigid tactical setups can stifle creativity. His reluctance to experiment with attacking formations might limit Italy’s offensive potential in crucial moments.

Sylvinho, despite his achievements with Albania, can be criticised for his overly defensive approach. This conservatism, while securing results against weaker teams, might not be sufficient against top-tier opponents. Fans and pundits alike argue that Sylvinho needs to find a better balance between defence and attack to make Albania a more well-rounded team.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Italy to Win with Under 2.5 Goals

Given the defensive resilience both Italy and Albania have shown in their recent fixtures, a low-scoring game seems likely. Italy, under Luciano Spalletti, have tightened their defence considerably, evident from their clean sheets in their last three matches. On the other hand, Albania conceded only four goals in their eight qualifying games, indicating a robust defensive setup. Italy’s attacking line, while potent, has occasionally struggled to break down well-organised defences.

Albania, playing on neutral ground and without the pressure of a home crowd, will likely adopt a conservative approach, focusing on stifling Italy’s forwards. Therefore, a narrow victory for Italy, such as 1-0, fits the expected match dynamics well. Italy’s experience in managing tight games and their ability to score crucial goals in important moments give them the edge.

2. Correct Score: Italy 1-0 Albania

This prediction aligns with the best bet, reflecting the likelihood of a low-scoring affair. Italy’s tactical discipline and defensive strength suggest they will keep Albania at bay. While Albania have improved significantly under Sylvinho, their primary strength lies in defence rather than attack.

Italy’s recent form, with a strong defensive record and controlled attacking play, points towards a minimal yet decisive margin of victory. Moreover, Italy’s ability to manage game tempo and their knack for scoring crucial goals support a 1-0 result. Albania, despite their defensive solidity, might struggle to breach Italy’s backline, making a solitary goal for the Azzurri a realistic outcome.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Davide Frattesi to Score

Davide Frattesi has emerged as a key player for Italy, particularly in the qualifying rounds where he was their top scorer. His ability to make late runs into the box and finish clinically sets him apart. In a match where space will be at a premium due to Albania’s defensive setup, Frattesi’s movement and timing can be crucial.

His understanding with midfield partners like Jorginho and Nicolo Barella, who can provide precise passes, enhances his scoring opportunities. Additionally, Frattesi’s form in recent friendlies, including scoring the only goal in a win against Bosnia and Herzegovina, further solidifies his potential to find the net in this fixture.

4. Corner Prediction: Italy to Win More Corners

Italy’s attacking approach, characterised by wing play and frequent crosses into the box, naturally leads to more corners. With players like Di Lorenzo and Dimarco likely to push forward and deliver crosses, Italy can be expected to earn a significant number of corners. Their average of 6.8 corners per game during the qualifiers supports this prediction.

Albania, while solid defensively, may find themselves pushed deep into their half, leading to clearances and subsequent corners for Italy. Considering Italy’s dominance in possession and their tendency to attack down the flanks, it is reasonable to predict that Italy will win more corners than Albania.

5. Shots on Target Prediction: Federico Chiesa to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Federico Chiesa’s direct and dynamic playing style makes him a constant threat in the attacking third. His ability to cut inside from the wings and unleash powerful shots is well-documented. Given Italy’s expected dominance in possession, Chiesa will likely find himself in positions to shoot frequently.

His average of 4.5 shots on target per game in the qualifiers underscores his potential to test the goalkeeper. Moreover, Chiesa’s form and confidence, coupled with his knack for getting into shooting positions, make him a strong candidate to register at least one shot on target during the match.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Berat Djimsiti to Receive a Yellow Card

Berat Djimsiti, Albania’s captain and a key figure in their defence, often finds himself in critical duels and situations that can lead to bookings. His aggressive style of play and the responsibility of marking Italy’s forwards increase the likelihood of him receiving a yellow card.

Italy’s attackers, such as Scamacca and Chiesa, are known for their pace and dribbling skills, which can force defenders like Djimsiti into making rash tackles. Additionally, the high stakes and competitive nature of the match could see Djimsiti committing fouls that attract the referee’s attention, making him a prime candidate for a yellow card.

7. Assist Prediction: Jorginho to Provide an Assist

Jorginho’s role as a deep-lying playmaker is pivotal for Italy. His vision and passing accuracy allow him to orchestrate play and create goal-scoring opportunities. With an impressive average of 532 accurate passes per game in the qualifiers, Jorginho consistently finds his teammates in advantageous positions.

His ability to unlock defences with through balls and set-piece deliveries makes him a likely source of assists. In a match where Italy may dominate possession, Jorginho’s knack for precise passes could lead to a key assist, particularly to a player like Frattesi or Chiesa who thrive on his service.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Goal – Italy Over 10

Considering Italy’s attacking setup and the need to assert dominance, it is plausible to expect them to register numerous shots on goal. During the qualifiers, Italy averaged 16 total shots per game, with 4.5 being on target. Against Albania, a team likely to sit back and absorb pressure, Italy will have ample opportunities to shoot.

The combined threat from players like Chiesa, Scamacca, and Frattesi, along with their tendency to take long-range efforts, supports the prediction of Italy having over 10 shots on goal. This market offers good value given Italy’s offensive capabilities and their expected dominance in this match.

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