Hamburg vs St Pauli predictions for this Bundesliga derby. St Pauli meet Hamburg in Friday’s derby at the Imtech Arena, with another draw appearing the most likely outcome. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips and take advantage of the best betting offers.
Bundesliga | Aug 29 2025 at 7:30 pm UK at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
Hamburg vs St Pauli Predictions


Will the Hamburg Derby Deliver Fireworks or Another Cagey Stalemate?
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- Hamburg’s attacking woes: Across their first two matches this season, HSV have scored only once, despite decent spells of possession in both games.
- St. Pauli’s lack of clinical edge: Last season, they managed just 28 goals in 34 Bundesliga matches, the lowest tally in the entire league.
- Low-scoring trends in common: Both teams have already featured in games under 2.5 goals this season, pointing to another tight contest in this derby.
Best Bet for Hamburg vs St Pauli
Under 2.5 goals | |
17/20 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Backing under 2.5 goals makes sense as both Hamburg and St. Pauli lack efficiency in attack, with neither showing signs of breaking open a disciplined derby. |
The city of Hamburg braces itself for one of the fiercest rivalries in German football as Hamburger SV and St. Pauli lock horns in the Volksparkstadion. It is a fixture that brings together raw passion, political undertones, and no shortage of nerves. Both clubs began their Bundesliga campaigns with draws, and while that might sound uninspiring, it sets the scene for a derby where neither side wants to give an inch.
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Hamburger SV, back in the top flight after their long exile, are still trying to prove that they belong again. They looked solid in their 0-0 draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach, showing defensive discipline, but in truth they carried very little sting in attack. St. Pauli, meanwhile, have been a bit of a rollercoaster. They scraped through against Norderstedt in the Cup before taking part in a thrilling 3-3 with Borussia Dortmund. Their coach Alexander Blessin will have been proud of the fight but surely worried by the defensive gaps on display. This derby, however, is rarely about neat tactics; it’s about fight, blood and thunder, and bragging rights across the city.
Best Bet for this Match
At BettingTips4You we cut through the noise and give you one clear choice per match. We don’t scatter you with multiple selections – we believe in precision, not confusion. For this fiery Hamburg derby, our Best Bet is Under 2.5 goals. Out of all possible angles, this stands out as the ultimate pick, as both sides are showing early-season signs of bluntness in attack combined with an instinct to avoid costly errors.
Why Back This Prediction
Hamburg’s return to the Bundesliga has been steady but not spectacular. Their goalless draw against Gladbach summed them up: resilient at the back but lacking cutting edge in the final third. Coach Merlin Polzin praised the performance, but privately he must be tearing his hair out at the lack of goals. They have now scored just once in their first two matches this season, and if you stretch the sample further back into pre-season, the scoring record looks even worse. Their forwards Ransford Königsdörffer and Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit work hard, but the final product isn’t there.
St. Pauli are not exactly prolific themselves. Yes, they managed three against Dortmund, but that game was chaotic and open, hardly the template for this derby. Against lower-league Norderstedt in the Cup, they struggled massively to break through and needed penalties. Their front line of Pereira Lage and Andreas Hountondji looks industrious but not particularly clinical. It is the same story as last season: opportunities are created, but conversion remains poor.
What makes this prediction stronger is that both teams already look like relegation candidates, and with so much riding on a derby, it is hard to see them gambling too much. The risk of defeat outweighs the desire to chase glory. The likely outcome is a cautious first half, full of tackles and yellow cards, followed by more of the same in the second, with perhaps one moment of quality deciding it.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote – Wolfgang Shotten:
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“These derbies are emotional, but when survival is on the line so early, fear takes over. Don’t expect fireworks, expect tension and few goals.”
Given all of this, a low-scoring battle feels the most realistic outcome. We lean towards a 1-1 draw as the correct scoreline – both sides have just enough to get on the board, but not enough to overpower the other.
Correct Score Prediction
Hamburger SV 1-1 St. Pauli. Both teams have their flaws in front of goal but enough organisation to stop each other running away with it.
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