Gremio vs Palmeiras predictions for this Brasilian Serie A affair. Palmeiras aim to return to the top of Brasileiro when they visit Gremio at Estadio Francisco Stedile on Thursday night. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
Brasileiro | Jul 4, 2024 at 11pm UK at Estadio Francisco Stedile
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Gremio vs Palmeiras Predictions
Can Gremio Halt Palmeiras’ March Towards the Summit?
Key Stats
– Palmeiras have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 matches, highlighting their defensive strength.
– Gremio have scored just eight goals in 11 matches, the fewest in the division.
– Estevao has netted three goals recently, making him a key player to watch in this encounter.
As Gremio and Palmeiras face off at the Estadio Francisco Stedile, the stakes are high for both sides. Palmeiras, trailing Flamengo by just a point, aim to reclaim the top spot in the Brasileiro, while Gremio are desperate to escape the relegation zone. This encounter promises to be a thrilling contest between two teams with contrasting fortunes this season.
Match Preview
Gremio have faced a challenging season so far, exacerbated by the absence of home games at the Arena do Gremio due to flood damage. This season has seen a significant decline for the club, which finished just two points shy of the title last term. Currently languishing in the bottom three with 10 points from 11 matches, Gremio have struggled without the influential Luis Suarez, whose departure has left a void in their attack.
Their form has been disappointing, with only three wins and a draw from 11 matches. Last weekend’s narrow 1-0 victory over Fluminense ended a five-match winless streak but did little to alleviate concerns about their scoring woes, as Gremio have netted just eight league goals this season, the fewest in the division. However, their home form at the Estadio Francisco Stedile has been somewhat of a silver lining, earning nine of their 11 points there.
In contrast, Palmeiras have been consistent and dominant. Abel Ferreira’s side sits just a point behind Flamengo, having dropped points in only one of their last seven league fixtures. They bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Fortaleza with a 2-0 victory over Corinthians, despite being down to ten men for much of the second half. Palmeiras have demonstrated defensive solidity, conceding just nine goals, the second-fewest in the league.
Their form extends beyond domestic competitions, with Palmeiras topping their Copa Libertadores group undefeated. Their away form has been particularly impressive, earning 13 points from six matches, including four clean sheets. This consistency makes them formidable opponents for any team, especially one struggling as Gremio is.
Expected Lineups and Team News
Gremio will be without Yeferson Soteldo and Mathias Villasanti, who are on international duty at the Copa America, and Dodi, who is suspended. Additionally, Diego Costa, Andre Henrique, Lucas Mila, and Jhonata Robert are sidelined due to injuries. Ferreira faces a selection dilemma with these absences, impacting his starting lineup.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, will miss Endrick, Richard Rios, and Gustavo Gomez, also away on international duty. Lazaro and Romulo are injured and unavailable until the end of the month. Despite these absences, Abel Ferreira’s squad depth means they can still field a strong lineup.
Gremio’s possible lineup: Marchesin; Pedro, Geromel, Ely, Reinaldo; Edenilson, Pepe, Carballo; Gomes, Pavon, Cristaldo
Palmeiras’ possible lineup: Weverton; Rocha, Naves, Reis, Piquerez; Fabinho, Vanderlan, Mayke, Estevao, Dudu; Lopez
Key Areas of the Field and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be crucial in this matchup. Gremio’s Edenilson and Pepe will need to control the tempo and provide defensive support, while Palmeiras’ Fabinho and Vanderlan will aim to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities. Defensive duels between Gremio’s Geromel and Palmeiras’ Lopez will be vital in determining the match’s outcome.
Tactical Analysis and Gameplay Predictions
Gremio are expected to adopt a defensive approach, focusing on counter-attacks to exploit any weaknesses in Palmeiras’ backline. Their lack of goalscoring threat means they will likely rely on set-pieces and opportunistic strikes to find the net.
Palmeiras, on the other hand, will aim to control possession and apply consistent pressure on Gremio’s defence. Their strategy will involve quick transitions and exploiting the wide areas to create chances. Given their solid defensive record, Palmeiras are likely to press high and disrupt Gremio’s build-up play.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Gremio’s main strength lies in their home form, where they have secured most of their points this season. However, their scoring problems and defensive lapses have been their undoing. Their reliance on a defensive setup might help them contain Palmeiras, but their lack of attacking threat is a significant weakness.
Palmeiras boast a balanced squad with a strong defence and potent attack. Their ability to grind out results, both home and away, makes them favourites. However, their occasional lapses in concentration, as seen in the defeat to Fortaleza, can be exploited.
Managerial Analysis
Gremio’s manager faces criticism for the team’s poor performances and inability to adapt to the challenges of this season. The continuous rotation of the squad and defensive tactics have not yielded the desired results. The loss of key players has further hampered their campaign.
Abel Ferreira, on the other hand, has managed to maintain Palmeiras’ high standards despite missing key players. His tactical acumen and ability to motivate his squad have been crucial in their successful run. His focus on defensive stability and effective counter-attacks has paid dividends.
Betting Predictions
- Best Bet: Palmeiras to Win
Given Palmeiras’ superior form and away record, they are favourites to secure a victory. Their defensive solidity and attacking prowess should see them overcome Gremio’s challenges.
- Correct Score Prediction: Gremio 1-2 Palmeiras
Considering both teams’ recent form and Palmeiras’ attacking capabilities, a 2-1 victory for Palmeiras seems plausible. Gremio might manage to score, but Palmeiras’ overall quality should see them through.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Estevao to Score Anytime
Estevao has been in fine form, scoring three goals recently. His ability to find space and convert chances makes him a strong candidate to score against Gremio’s vulnerable defence.
- First Team to Score: Palmeiras
With their aggressive approach and superior form, Palmeiras are likely to score first. Their high pressing and quick transitions should see them break the deadlock early.
- Innovative Market Prediction: Total Corners Over 10.5
Both teams’ attacking styles and tendency to exploit wide areas suggest a high number of corners. Palmeiras average 7.5 corners per game, while Gremio average 5.3, indicating a likely total of over 10.5 corners in this match.
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