Gremio vs Cruzeiro Predictions

Gremio vs Cruzeiro predictions, betting tips and match preview. Gremio, struggling in Brasileiro Serie A, host Cruzeiro at Estadio Centenario on Wednesday, seeking to end their winless run. Read on for our free predictions and tips.


Brasileiro | Jul 10, 2024 at 10.30pm UK at Estadio Francisco Stedile

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Gremio vs Cruzeiro Predictions

Will Gremio and Cruzeiro Cancel Each Other Out in Crucial Clash?

Key Stats

– Gremio have managed only one win in their last ten league matches.

– Cruzeiro have failed to win any of their last five away games.

– Matheus Pereira has scored five goals for Cruzeiro this season.

Gremio are set to host Cruzeiro at Estadio Centenario in Gameweek 16 of the Brasileiro Serie A. Both teams have experienced contrasting fortunes this season, and this fixture presents an opportunity for Gremio to end their winless streak while Cruzeiro look to build on their recent victory. This article provides a detailed analysis of the teams, their strategies, and key players, culminating in well-reasoned predictions for the match.

Match Preview

Gremio’s Struggles

Gremio entered this season with high hopes after finishing second in last year’s Brasileiro Serie A. However, their campaign has been anything but successful. They have struggled to find their footing, winning only three of their 13 league matches while suffering eight defeats. This dismal performance has left them languishing in 18th place with just 11 points. Gremio have been playing away from their home ground, Gremio Arena, due to flood damage, which has compounded their woes.

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The Imortal Tricolor recently managed to string together a three-match unbeaten run with two draws and a win, but their momentum was halted by a 3-0 defeat to Juventude. Heading into their third league match in a week, Gremio are at risk of going three matches without a win. Despite their poor form, they have managed to secure 10 points from home matches, showing some resilience on their turf.

Cruzeiro’s Mixed Bag

Cruzeiro have had a season marked by inconsistency, experiencing both highs and lows. After enduring two consecutive defeats, they bounced back with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Corinthians, climbing to seventh place in the Brasileiro table with 23 points. While their home form has been impeccable, Cruzeiro have struggled away, securing just four points from eight away matches, with only one win on the road.

Fernando Seabra’s men are currently on a five-match winless streak away from home, having lost their last three. Despite these struggles, they will be hoping to capitalise on Gremio’s vulnerabilities to secure a much-needed away victory.

Team Analysis


Gremio are dealing with several injuries, which has affected their squad depth. Notable absentees include former Chelsea striker Diego Costa, out until August with a muscle injury, and Jhonata Robert, who is sidelined with a knee and muscle injury. Additionally, Lucas Mila faces an extended period out due to an ACL injury, and midfielder Andre Henrique and defender Fabio da Silva are also unavailable.

Expected Lineup: Rafael; Pedro, Geromel, Martins; Reinaldo; Dodi, Villasanti, Ednilson; Gomes, Cristaldo, Pavon


Cruzeiro have their injury concerns as well, including forward Juan Dinenno and Arthur Viana, who are both out with hip injuries. Rafa Silva is recovering from a thigh injury and is not expected to return for several weeks. Despite these setbacks, Cruzeiro’s squad remains competitive, with Matheus Pereira and Gabriel Veron leading the attack.

Expected Lineup: Anderson; William, Villalba, Ze Ivaldo, Marlon; Pereira, Barreal, Silva, Romero; Robert, Veron

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Key Areas and Duels

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Gremio’s Dodi and Villasanti taking on Cruzeiro’s Pereira and Silva. The attacking prowess of Franco Cristaldo for Gremio and Matheus Pereira for Cruzeiro will be central to their teams’ fortunes. Defensively, Pedro Geromel’s experience will be vital in handling Cruzeiro’s pacey forwards.

Gameplay Expectations

Gremio are expected to adopt a more cautious approach, focusing on solidifying their defence and hitting Cruzeiro on the counter. Cruzeiro, on the other hand, will look to exploit Gremio’s defensive frailties with their aggressive pressing and quick transitions.

Improvements and Strategies


Gremio need to improve their defensive organisation, particularly against set pieces. Their inability to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game has often left them exposed. Enhancing their midfield cohesion and transition play will be crucial.


Cruzeiro’s away form remains their Achilles heel. They need to find a balance between their aggressive attacking style and defensive solidity. Improving their finishing in away games and maintaining defensive discipline will be key to securing points on the road.

Managerial Critique

Renato Gaucho

Renato Gaucho has faced criticism for his inability to adapt his tactics to changing match scenarios. His reliance on a core group of players and failure to rotate the squad effectively have contributed to Gremio’s struggles. Gaucho must develop a more flexible approach and ensure his team is better prepared for the challenges they face.

Fernando Seabra

Fernando Seabra has had a mixed tenure at Cruzeiro. While his tactical acumen has been evident in home matches, his team’s poor away form raises questions about his ability to motivate and organise the squad for away fixtures. Seabra needs to address these inconsistencies to maintain Cruzeiro’s position in the upper echelons of the table.

Expected Goals Analysis


Gremio’s goal-scoring record has been disappointing, averaging only 0.8 goals per game. Their xG figures highlight their inefficiency in converting chances, with just 4 shots on target per game. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.3 goals per game, reflecting their vulnerability at the back.


Cruzeiro have been more prolific, averaging 1.4 goals per game. Their ability to create high-quality chances is reflected in their xG figures. However, their defensive record is similar to Gremio’s, conceding 1.2 goals per game, indicating a need for greater defensive solidity.

Betting Angles


Best Bet: Draw

Considering Gremio’s resilient home form and Cruzeiro’s poor away record, a draw seems the most likely outcome. Gremio have secured the majority of their points at home, while Cruzeiro have struggled on the road. A stalemate would reflect the current form of both teams.

Correct Score Prediction: Gremio 1-1 Cruzeiro

Given the attacking and defensive records of both teams, a 1-1 draw appears to be a logical prediction. Gremio’s struggle to score consistently and Cruzeiro’s defensive lapses suggest a match where both teams are likely to find the net but fail to secure a win.

Goalscorer Prediction: Matheus Pereira to Score

Matheus Pereira has been a standout performer for Cruzeiro, leading their scoring charts. His ability to find space and his clinical finishing make him a strong candidate to score against Gremio’s vulnerable defence.

First Team to Score: Cruzeiro

Despite their poor away form, Cruzeiro have shown an ability to start matches strongly. With Gremio’s defensive struggles, Cruzeiro are likely to capitalise early and open the scoring.

Innovative Market: Total Shots on Target Over 10

Both teams have shown a tendency to create numerous scoring opportunities. With Gremio averaging 11.1 total shots per game and Cruzeiro 13.2, the total shots on target exceeding 10 is a reasonable prediction.

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Gerard Gabasa
Gerard Gabasa is our go-to football expert for all things Spanish. His passion for the game is evident in every analysis he offers. Having played professionally with Málaga's youth team, Gerard blends firsthand experience with deep insights. While he didn't ascend to the senior ranks, this stint enriched his understanding of the game's nuances. Over the years, Gerard has crafted in-depth match analyses and player evaluations that showcase his profound knowledge. With Gerard, expect a seasoned perspective on Spanish football every time.