Gibraltar vs Wales Predictions

Gibraltar vs Wales Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews ahead of this international friendly. Wales begin UEFA Nations League preparations with a friendly against Gibraltar. Read on for our free predictions and tips.

Friendlies | Jun 6, 2024 at 5pm UK at Estadio Do Algarve

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Gibraltar vs Wales Predictions

A David vs Wales Primed for Dominant Performance Against Resilient Gibraltar

As Wales prepare for their UEFA Nations League campaign, they face Gibraltar in a friendly match. The encounter is set to take place at the Estadio Do Algarve in Almancil, providing both teams a chance to fine-tune their tactics and strategies. Wales will look to dominate and secure a convincing win, while Gibraltar aim to frustrate their opponents and build on their recent defensive improvements.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Wales

Wales have had an inconsistent start to their qualifying campaign, missing out on the Euro 2024 playoffs despite an eight-match unbeaten run prior to their showdown with Poland. The Dragons were heartbroken after a goalless draw and subsequent penalty shootout loss against Poland, extending their winless streak in high-stakes matches.

Nevertheless, they now shift their focus to the Nations League, where they will face Turkey, Montenegro, and Iceland. Their recent form includes a mix of wins, draws, and a loss, indicating a team still searching for consistency.

Gibraltar

Gibraltar enter this match on a 13-match losing streak, failing to score in any of those encounters since their 1-0 victory over Andorra in November 2022. Despite this, there are positives to be found in their recent performances, with narrower defeats to Lithuania and Scotland suggesting a more resilient defence. Gibraltar have shown an ability to hold off stronger teams for extended periods, as evidenced by their performance against Scotland where they conceded after nearly an hour of play.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches

Wales

Expected Lineup: A.Davies; Low, Cabango, Baker; Stevens, Sheehan, J.James, Dasilva; Matondo, Cullen, Koumas

With Bolton Wanderers’ Josh Sheehan captaining the side, Rob Page is likely to field an inexperienced lineup. This presents an opportunity for several players to earn their first caps, including Matt Baker, Jay Dasilva, Fin Stevens, Charlie Crew, and Lewis Koumas. Wales are expected to employ a formation that allows for fluid attacking play, with Liam Cullen leading the line and Rabbi Matondo providing pace and creativity from the wings.

Gibraltar

Expected Lineup: Hankins; Jolley, Lopes, Olivero, Sergeant, Britto; Ronan, Walker, Annesley, Scanlon; De Barr

Julio Cesar Ribas may stick with the same starting eleven that performed admirably against Scotland. This lineup features a mix of domestic and lower-league players, with Kian Ronan potentially being introduced to add fresh legs. Gibraltar’s strategy will likely revolve around a deep defensive setup, aiming to frustrate Wales and limit their scoring opportunities.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the flow of the game. Wales’ Josh Sheehan and Jordan James are expected to control the tempo, using their passing and vision to unlock Gibraltar’s defence. Meanwhile, Gibraltar’s Liam Walker will need to marshal his side’s midfield efforts, breaking up Welsh attacks and attempting to launch counter-attacks.

Defensively, the duel between Wales’ Liam Cullen and Gibraltar’s defensive pairing of Roy Chipolina and Bernardo Lopes will be pivotal. Cullen’s movement and finishing ability will test Gibraltar’s resolve, while Lopes and Chipolina must remain organised to keep their opponents at bay.

Gameplay Predictions

Based on their recent performances, Wales are likely to dominate possession and create numerous scoring chances. Their approach will involve high pressing and quick transitions, aiming to exploit any gaps in Gibraltar’s defence. In contrast, Gibraltar will adopt a more conservative strategy, focusing on defensive solidity and looking to capitalise on any counter-attacking opportunities.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Wales

Strengths:

• Solid defensive record, with clean sheets in six of their last eight friendlies.
• Effective pressing game, which can disrupt opponents’ build-up play.
• Talented youngsters eager to prove themselves on the international stage.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent performances in crucial matches.
• Potential lack of cohesion with an inexperienced lineup.
• Over-reliance on key players to create scoring opportunities.

Gibraltar

Strengths:

• Improved defensive organisation, limiting opponents to fewer goals recently.
• Ability to frustrate stronger teams with disciplined defensive play.
• Experience in handling high-pressure situations despite limited success.

Weaknesses:

• Lack of goal-scoring threat, with no goals in their last 13 matches.
• Vulnerability to sustained pressure and quick transitions.
• Limited depth and quality across the squad.

Managerial Analysis

Rob Page, leading Wales, has shown a willingness to rotate his squad and provide opportunities to younger players. His approach is pragmatic, focusing on building a cohesive unit capable of competing at a higher level. However, his inability to secure wins in crucial matches has been a point of criticism.

Julio Cesar Ribas, managing Gibraltar, faces the challenge of motivating a team often outmatched in international fixtures. His emphasis on defensive discipline has yielded some improvements, but the lack of attacking prowess remains a significant hurdle.

Expected Goals Analysis

Wales have averaged 1.4 goals per game in their qualifying campaign, indicating a moderate scoring ability. Their shot metrics, with 12.7 total shots per game and 4.8 on target, suggest they create enough chances to secure a comfortable win against weaker opposition.

Gibraltar, conversely, have struggled massively in front of goal, with zero goals scored in their qualifying matches. Their average of 1.1 total shots per game, with only 0.3 on target, underscores their offensive struggles.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Based on the data provided, several betting angles present themselves for this match:

1. Best Bet: Gibraltar +3.5 to Win Given Gibraltar’s recent defensive improvements and Wales’ tendency to secure controlled victories, a win for Gibraltar with +3.5 handicap appears a solid bet. Gibraltar have managed to keep the scoreline respectable in recent matches, and Wales’ likely rotation of players suggests a less explosive attacking display.
2. Correct Score Prediction: Wales 3-0 Gibraltar Aligning with the best bet, a 3-0 scoreline for Wales reflects their ability to dominate without overextending. Gibraltar’s defensive resilience may prevent a higher score, while Wales’ attacking depth should ensure a comfortable margin.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: Liam Cullen to Score Leading the line for Wales, Liam Cullen is poised to capitalise on Gibraltar’s defensive vulnerabilities. His positioning and finishing skills make him a prime candidate to find the back of the net at least once.
4. Corner Prediction: Wales to Win More Corners With Wales expected to dominate possession and create more attacking opportunities, they are likely to win more corners. Gibraltar’s defensive approach will lead to numerous clearances, further increasing Wales’ corner count. A total of 7-10 corners for Wales seems reasonable based on their attacking metrics.
5. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target (Wales Over 4.5) Given Wales’ average of 4.8 shots on target per game, predicting them to exceed this number against a defensively frail Gibraltar side offers a compelling angle. Wales’ attacking intent and Gibraltar’s tendency to concede shots make this a strong market.

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