Germany vs Greece Predictions

Germany vs Greece Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews. Germany welcome Greece to Borussia-Park on Friday night for their final warm-up fixture before Euro 2024. Read on for our free predictions and tips.

Friendlies | Jun 7, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at BORUSSIA-PARK Nebenplatz 1

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Germany vs Greece Predictions

Germany Seek Convincing Victory Against Resilient Greece in Euro 2024 Warm-Up

Germany are set to face Greece at Borussia-Park in a friendly match, their final warm-up fixture before hosting the UEFA Euro 2024. The encounter is significant for both teams as they prepare for upcoming challenges, with Germany aiming to polish their tactics and Greece seeking to build momentum under interim coach Nikolaos Papadopoulos. This analysis delves into the teams’ form, expected lineups, key areas of the game, and provides detailed predictions.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Germany

Since Julian Nagelsmann took over as head coach, Germany have experienced a mix of results. They have won three, drawn two, and lost two of their first seven games under his management. After a disappointing end to 2023 with losses to Turkey and Austria, they bounced back with impressive victories against France and the Netherlands in March.

However, a goalless draw against Ukraine in their last match exposed their struggles in the final third, as they managed only five shots on target from 27 attempts. Germany’s inconsistency in front of goal is a concern they need to address before Euro 2024.

Greece

Greece, under the interim guidance of Nikolaos Papadopoulos, are regrouping after failing to qualify for Euro 2024. They finished third in their qualification group and suffered a heartbreaking penalty-shootout defeat to Georgia in the playoff semi-finals. Despite their elimination, Greece showed resilience and competitiveness, picking up 13 points in a tough group featuring France and the Netherlands.

However, their inability to secure victories against top-tier teams remains a challenge. The Galanolefki have a poor record against Germany, having never won in their previous nine meetings, with their most recent encounter ending in a 4-2 defeat in the Euro 2012 quarter-finals.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches

Germany

Expected Lineup: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Mittelstadt; Kroos, Andrich; Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz; Fullkrug

Nagelsmann is expected to field a strong lineup, possibly resembling the one he plans to start in their Euro 2024 opener against Scotland. With key players like Toni Kroos, Antonio Rudiger, Niclas Fullkrug, and Nico Schlotterbeck returning, Germany will aim for a cohesive and dominant performance. The tactical setup will likely focus on maintaining high possession, quick transitions, and exploiting the flanks with overlapping full-backs.

Greece

Expected Lineup: Vlachodimos; Saliakas, Chatzidiakos, Mavropanos, Giannoulis; Bakesetas, Kourbelis, Mantalos; Masouras, Ioannidis, Tzolis

Greece, missing key defenders Kostas Tsimikas and George Baldock, will rely on a mix of experience and youth. Papadopoulos may adopt a defensive setup, focusing on a compact formation to absorb pressure and counter-attack through the pace of players like Giorgos Masouras and Christos Tzolis. The midfield trio will be tasked with breaking up Germany’s play and initiating counter-attacks.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Germany’s Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan likely to dominate possession and dictate the tempo. Greece’s Bakesetas and Kourbelis will need to disrupt their rhythm and prevent the Germans from controlling the game. The duel between Germany’s Niclas Fullkrug and Greece’s centre-backs, particularly Mavropanos, will be vital in determining the effectiveness of Germany’s attacking efforts.

Gameplay Predictions

Germany are expected to control possession and create numerous scoring opportunities through their high-pressing and quick-passing game. Their full-backs, Kimmich and Mittelstadt, will provide width and support in attack. Greece will likely sit deep, aiming to frustrate the Germans and hit them on the break with the pace of their forward players. This tactical approach from Greece could limit Germany’s goal-scoring opportunities, making it a potentially low-scoring affair.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Germany

Strengths:

• High ball possession and accurate passing, with an 87.8% pass accuracy.
• Depth in attack, with versatile players like Musiala and Wirtz.
• Strong defensive options with the return of Rudiger and Schlotterbeck.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistency in converting chances, as seen against Ukraine.
• Over-reliance on key players for creativity.
• Occasional defensive lapses, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game in recent matches.

Greece

Strengths:

• Resilience and competitive spirit, shown in their qualification campaign.
• Defensive solidity, with clean sheets in five of their last ten matches.
• Effective counter-attacking potential with pacey forwards.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent performances against top-tier teams.
• Lack of goal-scoring threat, failing to score in several recent matches.
• Defensive vulnerabilities when under sustained pressure.

Managerial Analysis

Julian Nagelsmann, tasked with restoring Germany’s former glory, has shown tactical flexibility but faces criticism for the team’s inconsistency. His ability to get the best out of a talented squad will be crucial. On the other hand, Nikolaos Papadopoulos, in his interim role for Greece, aims to stabilise the team and build confidence. His challenge is to implement a solid defensive strategy while finding ways to make Greece more threatening in attack.

Expected Goals Analysis

Germany have averaged 1.8 goals per game in their UEFA Nations League campaign, indicating a strong offensive capability. Their shot metrics, with 10.8 total shots per game and 4.5 on target, suggest they create enough chances to secure a comfortable win against Greece.

Greece, with an average of 1.9 goals per game in their Euro 2024 qualifiers, rely heavily on their defensive organisation and counter-attacking opportunities. Their defensive stats, with 0.8 goals conceded per game, show resilience but also highlight their need for improvement against stronger teams.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Based on the provided data, several betting angles present themselves for this match:

1. Best Bet: Germany to Win to Nil Germany’s superior squad depth and attacking quality make them favourites to win by a comfortable margin. Given Greece’s defensive setup and attacking struggles, Germany to win to nil offers value.
2. Correct Score Prediction: Germany 2-0 Greece Aligning with the best bet, a 2-0 scoreline for Germany reflects their expected dominance while acknowledging Greece’s defensive capabilities. The Germans’ offensive pressure should eventually break through Greece’s defence.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: Niclas Fullkrug to Score Leading Germany’s attack, Niclas Fullkrug is poised to capitalise on Greece’s defensive vulnerabilities. His recent form and goal-scoring instincts make him a prime candidate to find the back of the net.
4. First Team to Score: Germany Given Germany’s attacking depth and Greece’s likely defensive approach, Germany are expected to score first. Their high pressing and quick transitions could lead to an early goal, setting the tone for the rest of the match.
5. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target (Germany Over 6.5) Considering Germany’s average of 4.5 shots on target per game, predicting them to exceed this number against Greece’s defence offers a compelling angle. Germany’s attacking intent and Greece’s tendency to concede shots make this a strong market.

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