Germany vs Denmark Predictions

Germany vs Denmark predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. Germany face Denmark in Euro 2024 last-16 at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, in Saturday’s late kickoff. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Round of 16 – Jun 29, 2024 at 8pm UK at Signal-Iduna-Park

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Germany vs Denmark Predictions

Can Germany’s Offence Break Denmark’s Sturdy Defence?

Germany face Denmark in the Euro 2024 last-16 clash on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Germany, under Julian Nagelsmann, topped Group A with a convincing performance, while Denmark secured second place in Group C with a less impressive showing.

Germany’s Group Stage Journey

Germany, having faced disappointment in recent World Cups, entered Euro 2024 with a point to prove. Their group stage campaign was marked by emphatic victories over Scotland and Hungary, securing their knockout berth with a game to spare. However, their final match against Switzerland tested their resilience. Despite falling behind to a Dan Ndoye goal, a late equaliser from Niclas Fullkrug ensured they topped the group, thus avoiding a tricky encounter with Italy.

The German side’s journey to the last-16 has been solid, remaining unbeaten in their seven matches this year, with five wins and two draws. Their form, bolstered by home support, sets a strong foundation as they aim to progress further in the tournament.

Denmark’s Struggle in Group C

Denmark’s path to the knockout stages was far from smooth. Group C was remarkably low-scoring, with just seven goals across all matches. Denmark, failing to win any of their group matches, still managed to progress with three draws. Their defence was relatively strong, but their attack lacked the potency needed to secure victories. Morten Hjulmand’s spectacular goal against England was a highlight in an otherwise unremarkable campaign.

Despite their struggles, Denmark have been difficult to beat, maintaining an unbeaten streak in 2024. Their defensive solidity will be crucial if they hope to upset the hosts.

Team News

Germany: Julian Nagelsmann will have to tweak his lineup due to suspensions and injuries. Jonathan Tah’s suspension and Antonio Rudiger’s injury concerns necessitate changes in defence. Nico Schlotterbeck is expected to start, possibly alongside Robin Koch or Waldemar Anton. Niclas Fullkrug’s impact off the bench might earn him a start ahead of Kai Havertz.

Denmark: Kasper Hjulmand faces a similar dilemma with Morten Hjulmand suspended. Christian Norgaard or Mathias Jensen are likely replacements. Up front, Jonas Wind’s position is under threat, with Andreas Skov Olsen, Kasper Dolberg, and Yussuf Poulsen vying for a starting spot.

Germany Predicted Lineup: Neuer; Kimmich, Schlotterbeck, Anton, Mittelstadt; Kroos, Andrich; Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz; Fullkrug

Denmark Predicted Lineup: Schmeichel; Andersen, Christensen, Vestergaard; Bah, Hojbjerg, Delaney, Maehle; Eriksen; Hojlund, Dolberg

Tactical Analysis

Germany’s attacking prowess has been evident, scoring eight goals in the group stages. Their high possession play, with an average of 69.7%, coupled with precise passing, underscores their offensive strategy. Players like Jamal Musiala and Ilkay Gundogan will be pivotal in breaking down Denmark’s defensive lines.

Defensively, Germany have shown vulnerability, particularly in their final group game. The suspension of Tah and the potential absence of Rudiger could expose them further. Nevertheless, their overall defensive record, with only 0.7 goals conceded per game, suggests a robust backline.

Denmark, on the other hand, will likely adopt a cautious approach. Their strength lies in their defence, having conceded only two goals in the tournament. Christian Eriksen will be key in midfield, orchestrating play and providing the creative spark. Their attack, however, must improve if they are to challenge Germany effectively.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Germany’s Approach:

Germany have showcased a dominant offensive strategy throughout Euro 2024, driven by high possession and rapid transitions. Julian Nagelsmann’s side averaged 2.7 goals per game in the group stage, relying on intricate play and individual brilliance. Key players such as Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz have been pivotal. Musiala, with his dribbling and close control, often destabilises defences, creating scoring opportunities for himself and teammates. Havertz, deployed as a false nine, pulls defenders out of position, allowing midfield runners like Ilkay Gundogan to exploit spaces.

Defensively, Germany prefer a high press, aiming to recover the ball quickly. This strategy has yielded mixed results, as seen in their struggle against Switzerland. The suspension of Jonathan Tah and potential absence of Antonio Rudiger could expose their backline. However, the inclusion of Nico Schlotterbeck and Robin Koch might bolster their defence.

Denmark’s Tactics:

Denmark’s strategy is built on a solid defensive foundation and quick counter-attacks. Kasper Hjulmand’s men have conceded only two goals in the tournament, showcasing their defensive discipline. The backline, featuring Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard, has been formidable. Their defensive midfield, anchored by Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, disrupts opposition play and initiates counters.

Offensively, Denmark have struggled, scoring just two goals in three games. They rely heavily on Christian Eriksen’s creativity. Eriksen’s vision and passing ability are crucial in unlocking defences. However, the forwards, including Jonas Wind, have failed to deliver consistently. This lack of firepower could be their undoing against a high-scoring German side.

Individual Performances

Germany:

• Jamal Musiala: The Bayern Munich starlet has been instrumental, scoring twice and constantly threatening defences with his dribbling.
• Kai Havertz: Although he hasn’t scored, Havertz’s movement and link-up play have created numerous chances for his teammates.
• Ilkay Gundogan: The midfielder’s contributions, including one goal and an assist, underline his importance in transitioning play from defence to attack.

Denmark:

• Christian Eriksen: Eriksen has been the creative fulcrum, scoring once and orchestrating play from midfield.
• Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg: His defensive contributions and ability to break up play have been crucial.
• Jannik Vestergaard: The defender has been solid at the back, helping Denmark maintain their strong defensive record.

Managerial Impact

Julian Nagelsmann (Germany):

Nagelsmann’s tactical acumen has been evident in Germany’s group stage performances. His high-pressing game and fluid attacking transitions have brought the best out of his players. However, his insistence on a high defensive line has occasionally left Germany vulnerable to counter-attacks. Adjusting this approach, especially with the defensive absences, will be critical.

Kasper Hjulmand (Denmark):

Hjulmand’s pragmatic approach has ensured Denmark’s defensive stability. However, his inability to find a consistent goal-scoring formula is a significant drawback. His reliance on Eriksen for creativity is a double-edged sword, and diversifying their offensive play is necessary for Denmark to progress further.

Expected Goals Analysis

Germany’s attacking prowess is reflected in their expected goals (xG) statistics. They have generated 5.1 xG compared to their opponents’ 1.8, indicating a strong ability to create high-quality chances. Denmark, conversely, have struggled with an xG of only 2, highlighting their offensive inefficiencies. This disparity suggests Germany are more likely to dominate in terms of goal-scoring opportunities.

Tactical and Performance Comparison

Germany’s tactics revolve around high possession and quick transitions, leveraging the technical skills of players like Musiala and Gundogan. Denmark’s focus is on defensive solidity and counter-attacks, with Eriksen as the central creative figure. While Germany excel in creating and converting chances, Denmark’s strength lies in their defensive organisation.

Suggestions for Improvement

Germany:

• Defensive Adjustments: With Tah suspended and Rudiger potentially out, reinforcing the defence with more conservative positioning could prevent counter-attacks.
• Utilise Fullkrug More: Niclas Fullkrug’s ability to hold up play and his goal-scoring instincts should be maximised, possibly starting him ahead of Havertz.

Denmark:

• Enhance Offensive Variety: Diversifying their attack beyond Eriksen is crucial. Encouraging more forward runs from midfielders like Hojbjerg could add unpredictability.
• Optimise Substitutions: Introducing dynamic players like Andreas Skov Olsen or Yussuf Poulsen earlier could energise their attack and exploit tired defences.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Germany’s Strengths:

• Attacking Depth: Multiple players capable of scoring and creating chances.
• High Possession Play: Dominates midfield and controls game tempo.

Germany’s Weaknesses:

• Defensive Vulnerability: High line can be exposed by quick counters.
• Inconsistent Finishing: Despite creating chances, they sometimes lack clinical finishing.

Denmark’s Strengths:

• Defensive Discipline: Strong organisation and resilience at the back.
• Eriksen’s Creativity: A reliable playmaker who can change the game.

Denmark’s Weaknesses:

• Lack of Goals: Struggles to convert chances and lacks a prolific striker.
• Over-Reliance on Eriksen: Predictable attack that can be neutralised by focusing on Eriksen.

Managerial Critique

Julian Nagelsmann’s high-risk, high-reward strategy has been exciting but also problematic. His stubbornness in maintaining a high defensive line, despite evident vulnerabilities, suggests a lack of pragmatic flexibility. Against Denmark, who thrive on counter-attacks, this could be a fatal flaw.

Kasper Hjulmand, on the other hand, while adept at organising a solid defence, appears to lack the tactical ingenuity to diversify Denmark’s attacking play. His over-reliance on Eriksen is a glaring issue, making Denmark’s attack predictable and easier to defend against. This conservatism in offensive strategy could be Denmark’s undoing against more versatile teams.

Predictions

1. Germany to Win and Both Teams to Score (Best Bet):

Germany’s offensive capabilities have been demonstrated throughout the group stages, with eight goals scored in three matches. Their fluid attacking play, spearheaded by talents like Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, poses a significant threat to any defence. Denmark, while defensively solid, have shown vulnerabilities and managed to score in tight matches.

Their defensive record suggests they can be breached by a high-calibre attack like Germany’s. Given the Germans’ occasional defensive lapses, as seen against Switzerland, it’s plausible that Denmark could capitalise on any mistakes. This sets the stage for a match where Germany are likely to win but also concede, making this a strong bet.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Germany 2-1 Denmark:

Germany’s consistent attacking output, averaging two goals per game in recent matches, suggests they are likely to score multiple times against Denmark. The Danish side, while defensively competent, have struggled to find the back of the net, scoring only twice in the group stages.

Germany’s defence, despite some inconsistencies, should be able to handle Denmark’s relatively blunt attack, yet a goal from the Danish might be expected at some point. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Germany’s recent performances and Denmark’s struggles, making it a realistic prediction.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Jamal Musiala to Score:

Jamal Musiala has been a standout performer for Germany in Euro 2024. His two goals in the group stages highlight his ability to find crucial scoring opportunities. Playing in a creative role, Musiala’s dribbling and positioning make him a constant threat to opposition defences.

Against Denmark, who have shown defensive solidity but are susceptible to individual brilliance, Musiala’s skills will be pivotal. His tendency to get into advanced positions and his clinical finishing make him a strong candidate to score in this match.

4. Corner Prediction: Germany to Win More Corners:

Germany’s attacking philosophy, characterised by high possession and frequent incursions into the opposition’s final third, results in numerous corner kicks. Averaging 8.3 corners per game, Germany’s attacking play ensures they dominate this aspect of the match. Denmark, while defensively robust, will likely be on the back foot for significant portions of the game, leading to fewer corner opportunities. Germany’s superior attacking stats and their tactical approach make them favourites to win more corners in this encounter.

5. Shots on Target Prediction: Niclas Fullkrug to Have 1+ Shots on Target:

Niclas Fullkrug has demonstrated his effectiveness in front of goal, particularly with his crucial strike against Switzerland. Given his likely inclusion in the starting lineup due to his recent form, Fullkrug will be a focal point in Germany’s attack. His positioning and ability to create space for himself ensure that he will have opportunities to test the Danish goalkeeper. With Germany’s attacking setup designed to provide chances for their forwards, Fullkrug is well-placed to register at least one shot on target during the match.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Robert Andrich to Receive a Yellow Card:

Robert Andrich’s aggressive and combative style in midfield often puts him at risk of disciplinary action. Known for his robust challenges and tactical fouling to break up opposition play, Andrich’s role involves significant defensive responsibilities. In a high-stakes match against Denmark, his physical approach is likely to draw the referee’s attention. Given his history and playing style, it’s reasonable to predict that Andrich will receive a yellow card during this encounter.

7. Assist Prediction: Ilkay Gundogan to Provide an Assist:

Ilkay Gundogan’s vision and passing accuracy make him a key playmaker for Germany. With an assist already in the tournament, Gundogan’s ability to unlock defences with precise passes is well-documented. His advanced positioning and role in Germany’s midfield ensure he is heavily involved in their attacking play. Against Denmark, his creativity will be crucial in breaking down a disciplined defence, making him a strong candidate to provide an assist in this match.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Germany to Have Over 5.5 Shots on Target:

Germany’s attacking statistics highlight their ability to consistently create scoring opportunities. Averaging 6.7 shots on target per game, their offensive unit is adept at penetrating defences and testing goalkeepers. Given Denmark’s defensive approach, Germany will likely dominate possession and create numerous chances. With their aggressive attacking play and high shot accuracy, betting on Germany to have over 5.5 shots on target is a well-supported prediction.

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