Georgia vs Portugal predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. Roberto Martinez may rotate Portugal’s squad after topping Group F, but they are still the favourite to prevail against Georgia. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 26, 2024 at 8pm UK at Merkur Spiel-Arena
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Georgia vs Portugal Predictions
Key Stats
– Portugal have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, all featuring over 2.5 goals.
– Georgia have conceded 18 goals in their last 10 matches, highlighting their defensive weaknesses.
– Diogo Jota has been involved in seven goals in his last 370 minutes for Portugal, underlining his attacking threat.
Can Georgia Shock Portugal? A Tactical Preview and Predictions for the Euro 2024 Group F Showdown
The Euro 2024 group stage is approaching its climax, and Wednesday’s matchup between Georgia and Portugal in Group F is set to be a captivating affair. Despite Georgia’s bottom position in the group, their performances have been full of spirit and excitement. Portugal, on the other hand, have already secured the top spot with a game to spare. This clash promises to be intriguing, with Georgia needing a win to keep their hopes alive and Portugal looking to maintain their unbeaten record.
Team Analysis
Georgia’s Journey So Far
Georgia’s campaign in Euro 2024 has been a roller-coaster ride under the management of Willy Sagnol. Their opening match against Turkey ended in a narrow defeat, but it was a game that showcased their fighting spirit. The team displayed both attacking flair and defensive resilience, traits that have won them many admirers.
In their second outing, a draw against the Czech Republic kept their hopes alive. This result, although not perfect, highlighted their ability to compete at this level. The Georgians have brought a fast-paced style of play to the tournament, making their matches highly entertaining.
Their attacking mindset has been both a strength and a weakness, leading to goals but also leaving them exposed defensively. Heading into their final group game, Georgia know that only a win will suffice to keep their tournament hopes alive. With a favourable goal difference, three points should see them through as one of the best third-placed teams.
Portugal’s Dominance
Portugal have had a strong start to their Euro 2024 campaign under Roberto Martínez. With six points from their two matches, they have already secured the top spot in Group F. Their journey began with a hard-fought win against the Czech Republic, followed by a convincing victory over Turkey. Despite their success, there is a sense that Portugal have yet to hit their peak form. This match against Georgia offers a chance for squad rotation and for fringe players to make an impression. Even with a potentially rotated lineup, Portugal’s depth in quality makes them formidable opponents.
Portugal’s previous encounter with Georgia, a friendly back in 2008, saw them win 2-0. However, this competitive fixture presents a new challenge. Georgia, with their nothing-to-lose attitude, will aim to take the game to Portugal, while the Portuguese will likely adopt a more measured approach.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches
Georgia’s Lineup and Tactics
Georgia are expected to stick closely to the lineup that earned a draw against the Czech Republic. With key players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze, Georgia will look to exploit their attacking talents. Kvaratskhelia’s dribbling and Mikautadze’s clinical finishing will be crucial in breaking down the Portuguese defence. Defensively, Georgia will need to be more disciplined, as their open style has left them vulnerable. Their ability to balance attack and defence will determine their success.
Expected Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Giorgi Mamardashvili
- Defenders: Lasha Dvali, Vladimer Mamuchashvili, Guram Kashia, Solomon Kvirkvelia
- Midfielders: Otar Kiteishvili, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili
- Forwards: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Georges Mikautadze, Budu Zivzivadze
Portugal’s Lineup and Tactics
Portugal are likely to make several changes to their lineup to rest key players. Despite this, their squad depth ensures they remain strong. Players like Diogo Jota and João Félix, who might get the nod, are capable of providing the necessary firepower. Portugal’s approach will focus on maintaining possession and creating chances through their midfield dominance. Their defence, led by experienced players, will be on alert for Georgia’s counter-attacks.
Expected Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Rui Patrício
- Defenders: Gonçalo Inácio, Toti Gomes, João Cancelo, António Silva
- Midfielders: Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, Bernardo Silva
- Forwards: João Félix, Diogo Jota, Gonçalo Ramos
Key Players to Watch
For Georgia, the spotlight will be on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze. Kvaratskhelia has been a standout with his dribbling and creativity, while Mikautadze’s finishing ability makes him a constant threat. In midfield, Giorgi Chakvetadze’s vision and passing will be vital in unlocking the Portuguese defence.
Portugal, boasting a wealth of talent, will look to players like Diogo Jota and João Félix in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo. Jota’s recent form, with seven goal involvements in his last 370 minutes for Portugal, makes him a key figure. João Félix, known for his creativity and flair, will be crucial in breaking down Georgia’s defence.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
In their recent matches, both Georgia and Portugal have exhibited distinct offensive and defensive strategies. Georgia, under the management of Willy Sagnol, have adopted an attacking approach, often at the expense of their defensive solidity. Their matches have been characterised by an emphasis on forward play, driven by key players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze. Kvaratskhelia, with his dribbling skills, has been instrumental in creating chances, while Mikautadze’s clinical finishing has been vital, as evidenced by his two goals in the tournament. However, this aggressive style has left Georgia vulnerable at the back, conceding 18 goals in 10 matches and allowing opponents 49 shots on goal.
Defensively, Georgia have struggled, averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game. Their defence, led by players like Guram Kashia and Solomon Kvirkvelia, has been overworked and often breached due to the high number of counter-attacks they face. The team’s average ball possession of 41.8% indicates their tendency to lose the ball frequently, leading to increased pressure on their backline. The lack of clean sheets further highlights their defensive weaknesses.
Portugal, on the other hand, have displayed a more balanced approach. Managed by Roberto Martínez, Portugal’s strategy revolves around maintaining possession and creating high-quality chances. With an average ball possession of 68.3% and 614 accurate passes per game, they dominate the midfield, orchestrated by the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva. Their offensive prowess is reflected in their 3.6 goals per game, with players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Diogo Jota leading the attack. Jota’s involvement in seven goals in his last 370 minutes for Portugal underscores his importance in their forward play.
Defensively, Portugal have been robust, conceding just 2 goals in 10 matches and keeping 9 clean sheets. Their defence, anchored by experienced players such as Rúben Dias and João Cancelo, has been solid, allowing only 1.6 saves per game on average. This defensive strength, combined with their attacking efficiency, makes Portugal a formidable opponent.
Individual Performances of Key Players
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze have been standout performers for Georgia. Kvaratskhelia’s dribbling and attacking runs have been crucial in breaking down defences, while Mikautadze’s goal-scoring ability has provided the necessary firepower. Despite their efforts, the lack of support from other team members has often left them isolated.
For Portugal, Diogo Jota and Bruno Fernandes have been exceptional. Jota’s ability to score and assist has been pivotal, and Fernandes’ midfield mastery has ensured Portugal’s dominance in possession and chance creation. Cristiano Ronaldo, even if rested, remains a significant influence, providing leadership and an ever-present goal threat.
Impact of Management on Style and Performance
Willy Sagnol’s management of Georgia has emphasised attacking football, which, while entertaining, has exposed defensive frailties. His tactical decisions have led to high-scoring games, but often at the cost of defensive stability. The lack of a balanced approach has seen Georgia struggle against stronger opponents, highlighting a need for better defensive organisation.
Roberto Martínez’s influence on Portugal has been more balanced. His focus on possession-based football, combined with a strong defensive setup, has yielded positive results. Martínez’s ability to rotate the squad effectively without compromising performance has been crucial in maintaining Portugal’s unbeaten run. His tactical acumen has ensured that Portugal remain solid at the back while being potent in attack.
Analysis of Expected Goals
Georgia’s expected goals (xG) from their matches indicate a moderate attacking output. Scoring two goals from a combined xG of 3.1 suggests that while they create chances, their conversion rate needs improvement. This inefficiency in front of goal has been a significant factor in their results.
Portugal’s xG has been significantly higher, reflecting their attacking dominance. Their ability to convert chances into goals efficiently has been a key factor in their success. With an average of 19 shots per game, Portugal’s xG is consistently high, underlining their offensive capabilities.
Tactical and Performance Comparison
Tactically, Portugal’s approach is more refined and balanced compared to Georgia’s gung-ho style. Portugal’s control of the midfield, facilitated by players like Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, contrasts with Georgia’s reliance on quick transitions and counter-attacks. Defensively, Portugal are far superior, with a well-organised backline and effective midfield shielding.
Player performances also highlight this disparity. Portugal’s players have consistently high BettingTips4you ratings, with Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Jota leading by example. Georgia’s key players, while impressive, lack the same level of support and consistency.
Suggestions for Improvement
For Georgia, the primary focus should be on improving their defensive organisation. Balancing their attacking intent with defensive solidity is crucial. Sagnol needs to work on maintaining structure and discipline at the back while still encouraging forward play. Enhancing their ball retention and reducing possession lost per game will also help in controlling matches better.
Portugal, while performing well, can still fine-tune their approach. Ensuring that squad rotation does not affect team cohesion will be vital as they progress in the tournament. Martínez should continue to leverage the depth in his squad, giving opportunities to fringe players to maintain overall fitness and readiness.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams
Georgia’s Strengths:
- Attacking flair and creativity, primarily through Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze.
- Resilience and fighting spirit, as demonstrated in their matches against Turkey and the Czech Republic.
Georgia’s Weaknesses:
- Defensive vulnerabilities and high goals conceded.
- Inconsistent finishing and inefficiency in converting chances.
Portugal’s Strengths:
- Balanced and possession-based play.
- Strong defensive record with multiple clean sheets.
- Depth in squad and ability to rotate effectively.
Portugal’s Weaknesses:
- Occasional lack of cohesion when rotating players.
- Dependence on key players for creative output, which could be tested in high-stakes matches.
Managerial Critique and Potential Dynamics
Willy Sagnol’s management has been a double-edged sword for Georgia. His commitment to attacking football has made Georgia’s matches exciting, but his inability to shore up the defence has cost them dearly. This lack of balance is a critical flaw in Sagnol’s strategy, leading to questions about his tactical flexibility.
Roberto Martínez, while successful, has not been without criticism. His tendency to rotate players has sometimes disrupted team cohesion, leading to disjointed performances. However, his overall management style, which emphasises balance and depth, has been more effective compared to Sagnol’s approach.
Predictions
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
This match is expected to be a high-scoring affair due to the attacking strengths and defensive frailties of both teams. Portugal have been prolific in front of goal, netting 13 times in their last five matches, all of which saw over 2.5 goals. Their ability to create and convert chances is evident from their high number of shots on target per game, averaging 8.1.
Georgia, while not as formidable in attack, have also been involved in goal-heavy games, with their last three matches producing a total of ten goals. Their defence has been leaky, allowing 49 shots on goal throughout the tournament. With Portugal likely to field a rotated but still potent attacking lineup, and Georgia needing to push for a win, the stage is set for a match with plenty of goals.
Correct Score: Portugal 4-1 Georgia
Portugal’s attacking prowess and Georgia’s defensive vulnerabilities make a 4-1 scoreline a plausible outcome. Portugal have shown they can score multiple goals against varying levels of opposition, as evidenced by their three-goal haul against Turkey. Their offensive depth means they can maintain high attacking output even with squad rotation.
Georgia, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding 18 goals in their last ten matches. While they have the capability to score, as shown by their two goals from a modest xG of 3.1, their defence is likely to be breached multiple times by Portugal’s dynamic attackers. This combination of factors points towards a convincing win for Portugal, with Georgia managing to score a consolation goal.
Goalscorer: Diogo Jota
Diogo Jota is in scintillating form for Portugal, with four goals and three assists in his last 370 minutes of international play. His ability to find the net and create opportunities makes him a prime candidate to score against Georgia.
Jota’s movement and positioning allow him to exploit defensive lapses, something Georgia have been prone to, given their 49 shots on goal conceded in the tournament. With Roberto Martínez likely to rest some key players, Jota will be eager to seize his opportunity and add to his tally. His recent performances and Georgia’s defensive record make Jota a strong bet to score in this match.
Corners: Over 10.5 Corners
The match is likely to see a high number of corners, given Portugal’s attacking style and Georgia’s defensive approach. Portugal average 7.2 corners per game, reflecting their ability to sustain pressure and create scoring opportunities.
Georgia, despite their lower average of 2.1 corners per game, will contribute to the total through their counter-attacking play and set-piece opportunities. The expected dynamic of the game, with Portugal dominating possession and Georgia defending resolutely, suggests that there will be numerous corner kicks, pushing the total over 10.5.
Shots on Target: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes is a key player for Portugal, known for his ability to get into shooting positions and test the goalkeeper. With an average of 8.1 shots on target per game for Portugal, Fernandes is often at the heart of their attacking play.
His vision and long-range shooting ability make him a constant threat. In a match where Portugal are expected to dominate possession, Fernandes is likely to have multiple opportunities to shoot. Backing him to have at least one shot on target is a strong prediction, considering his form and role in the team.
Yellow Card: Solomon Kvirkvelia
Solomon Kvirkvelia is a crucial figure in Georgia’s defence, known for his aggressive style of play. Against Portugal’s skilful and fast attackers, Kvirkvelia is likely to be heavily involved in defensive actions.
His propensity for committing fouls, combined with the pressure of the match, increases the likelihood of him receiving a booking. Georgia’s need to defend resolutely may lead to several fouls, with Kvirkvelia’s aggressive approach making him a prime candidate for a yellow card.
Assist: João Félix
João Félix’s creativity and vision make him a strong candidate to provide an assist in this match. With Portugal likely to control possession and create numerous chances, Félix’s ability to unlock defences with his passing will be crucial.
His understanding with the forward line, particularly Diogo Jota, enhances his chances of setting up a goal. Given Georgia’s defensive vulnerabilities, Félix is well-placed to provide the decisive pass for a goal, making him a good bet for an assist.
Innovative Bet: Total Team Shots on Goal for Portugal Over 15.5
Portugal’s attacking dominance is reflected in their average of 19 shots per game, with 8.1 on target. Against a Georgia side expected to sit deep and defend, Portugal are likely to register a high number of shots.
Their ability to sustain pressure and create chances means they will test the Georgian goalkeeper frequently. Considering Georgia’s tendency to concede numerous shots (49 in the tournament), backing Portugal to exceed 15.5 shots on goal is a strong prediction. This bet capitalises on Portugal’s attacking depth and Georgia’s defensive struggles.
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