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Can the hosts disrupt Roma’s top-four push at Stadio Ferraris? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Roma possess superior quality and a high-volume attack led by Malen, but Genoa’s scoring streak at home cannot be ignored. The hosts have found the net twice in four straight Ferraris matches, suggesting they will breach a Roma defence that recently leaked two against Juventus.
Read Rationale ▾
Genoa’s home games are lively, but Roma’s control of possession and higher shot volume (13.7 per game) should eventually tell. Given Genoa’s defensive weaknesses out wide and Roma’s elite attacking spark in Malen, a narrow victory for the visitors seems the most plausible outcome in a tight battle.
Readers’ Tip
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Genoa host Roma in a huge Serie A fixture as the home side chase breathing room and the visitors push hard for the top four. Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris should feel tense from the first whistle.
Genoa vs Roma — Market Snapshot
Key statistical probabilities derived from live market pricing.
Roma’s 4th place position and 51 points provide a significant quality advantage over the 15th-placed hosts.
Genoa’s last four home matches have averaged over 2.5 goals, with the hosts finding the net consistently.
Roma’s 13.7 shots per game and Malen’s elite strike rate point toward a narrow but clinical away win.
Roma have recorded 15 clean sheets this season, more than double the tally of their hosts.
Match Preview
This fixture has edge. Genoa come into it with real need, real pressure and a home crowd that has seen enough recently to believe there is a fight in this side. Roma arrive with a different kind of urgency, locked in a fierce scrap for the top four and knowing dropped points now sting twice as hard.
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris should feel tense from the first whistle. Genoa are trying to keep clear of trouble near the bottom, while Roma are pushing to protect their place in the Champions League race.
There is also unfinished business in the air. Roma blew a two-goal lead against Juventus last time out and had to settle for a draw, so the response matters. With Daniele De Rossi in one dugout and Gian Piero Gasperini in the other, this has all the ingredients of a sharp, emotional Serie A contest.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Roma’s superior depth in offensive transitions is reflected in their ability to generate consistent shooting opportunities compared to the hosts.
Ball Retention: Passing Accuracy (%)
Team News & Probable Lineups
Genoa absentees
- Brooke Norton-Cuffy is out with muscular problems.
- Sebastian Otoa is out with ankle problems.
Roma absentees
No absences are listed.
Genoa probable lineup
Bijlow, Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez, Norton-Cuffy, Ellertsson, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Martín, Vitinha, Colombo
Roma probable lineup
Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi, Celik, Cristante, Kone, Rensch, Pisilli, Pellegrini, Malen
The immediate issue for Genoa is obvious. Norton-Cuffy is named in the probable lineup, but he is also listed as injured, so that right side carries uncertainty. That matters because Genoa use width, cross often and need energy in the wide channels.
Roma’s shape looks built to control territory. With Cristante and Kone central, Pellegrini and Pisilli linking play, and Malen carrying the biggest goal threat in the projected side, the visitors have enough structure to dominate the ball and enough thrust to turn pressure into chances.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Genoa | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 4th |
| Points | 27 | 51 |
| Serie A goals scored | 32 | 37 |
| Serie A shots per game | 11.6 | 13.7 |
| Possession | 47.6% | 56.7% |
| Pass success | 80.5% | 83.7% |
| Aerials won | 17.3 | 16.0 |
| Team rating | 6.55 | 6.70 |
| Last six matches | W2 D1 L3 | W2 D3 L1 |
| Clean sheets overall | 7 | 15 |
Tactical Battle
Roma’s control against Genoa’s edge
Roma should expect to have more of the ball. Their average possession sits above 56%, and their style is clear: they control the game in the opposition’s half, attack down the right and play with width. The challenge for Genoa is not simply surviving possession spells, but surviving them without getting stretched.
That is where the game starts to look dangerous for the hosts. Genoa are weak at keeping possession and very weak at defending through-ball attacks. Against a team that passes well and can camp in advanced areas, that is a worrying mix. Roma do not need wild matches to hurt opponents; they can do it by patiently moving them side to side until gaps appear.
Genoa’s route: width, crosses and second balls
Genoa will still fancy moments of their own. They attempt crosses often, play with width and carry real threat from attacking set pieces. At home they have scored 3 against Bologna, 2 against Napoli, 3 against Torino and 3 against Cagliari in recent league matches, so this side can make a game messy in a hurry.
The names that jump out are Lorenzo Colombo, Ruslan Malinovskyi and Aarón Martín. Colombo is Genoa’s top league scorer with six goals, Malinovskyi has five goals and three assists, and Martín leads the side with four assists. That triangle can trouble Roma if Genoa manage to work the ball into wide delivery zones quickly enough.
Where Roma can hurt them
Roma’s most obvious attacking spark is Donyell Malen. He has scored six goals in seven Serie A appearances, owns the best squad rating at 7.15, and takes 5.1 shots per game. That is elite volume in the context of this fixture.
He will not need many openings if Roma get him facing the box. Pellegrini and Pisilli behind him suggest Roma want players between Genoa’s midfield and back line, while Celik and Rensch can push the shape wide. Genoa are weak when defending attacks down the wings and weak at protecting the lead, so even a strong first half from the home side may not settle this game.
The midfield wrestle
This match could still turn scrappy if Genoa get enough bite into midfield. Frendrup brings stability, Malinovskyi brings aggression and craft, and Genoa are very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. Roma, on the other hand, are vulnerable on the counter. That is the warning sign for Gasperini’s side.
If Roma overcommit, Genoa can break into the spaces left behind. If they do that with speed and hit early crosses towards Colombo or let Vitinha run beyond, the home side can create the sort of chaotic sequences Roma do not enjoy.
Key Moments to Watch
- Roma’s start in possession: If Roma settle early and push the game into Genoa’s half, the visitors can dictate rhythm straight away.
- The Malen factor: Six league goals in seven appearances makes him the most explosive finisher in this matchup.
- Genoa’s wide delivery: Martín’s four assists and Genoa’s willingness to cross often could drag Roma into a more physical contest.
- Set pieces at both ends: Genoa are strong from attacking set pieces, but weak when defending them; Roma are strong at defending set pieces, so that clash matters.
- Game-state pressure: Genoa are very weak at protecting the lead, while Roma just threw away a two-goal advantage against Juventus. If either side goes ahead, nerves will not disappear.
- Recent scoring patterns: Genoa have scored 2+ goals in each of their last four home league matches, while Roma have scored 2+ in each of their last four Serie A matches.
The volatility check is simple. Genoa can make this loud, direct and uncomfortable, especially if the crowd gets involved and the first half turns into a duel of second balls and crosses. But if they get pinned too deep, the match can slide away from them because Roma create more attacks, more dangerous attacks and complete more passes in better areas.
What Could Go Wrong?
What could go wrong for Roma? The counter attack. Their biggest weakness is right there, and Genoa have enough punch at home to expose it. What could go wrong for Genoa? The spaces out wide and in behind. If Roma move them around for too long, the pressure may become relentless.
Quick Hits
- Roma sit 4th on 51 points after 27 matches, while Genoa are 15th on 27 points.
- Genoa have scored at least twice in each of their last four home Serie A matches.
- Roma average 13.7 shots per game and 56.7% possession.
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires selecting the winner while both teams find the net. It is a higher-risk option than a straight win but offers improved pricing. Pros: Capitalises on offensive form. Cons: Ruined by a clean sheet.
Correct Score
Predicting the exact final scoreline. This market is volatile but provides the highest potential returns. Pros: Significant rewards for accuracy. Cons: Extremely sensitive to late goals or red cards.
🎯 Tactical Rationale: Roma to Win & BTTS
Roma enter this fixture with a vastly superior statistical platform, boasting nearly double the points tally of their hosts. Their dominance in possession (56.7%) and shot volume (13.7 per game) suggests they will dictate the tempo at the Ferraris. However, Genoa’s recent scoring record at home is impossible to ignore. The hosts have scored at least twice in each of their last four Serie A matches at this venue, turning their home ground into a highly productive attacking zone regardless of the opposition’s stature.
Tactical Indicators:
- Genoa have scored 2+ goals in four consecutive home matches.
- Roma average over 13 shots per game and 83.7% pass completion.
- Roma recently conceded twice against Juventus, showing defensive vulnerability.
Risk Factor: Roma have 15 clean sheets this season; if they successfully pin Genoa back, the BTTS element may fail.
⚔️ Tactical Rationale: Roma 2-1 Genoa
A 2-1 victory for Roma aligns with the current attacking trends of both sides. Roma’s high-volume shooting and the form of Donyell Malen (6 goals in 7 games) suggest they have the firepower to breach a Genoa defence that struggles against through-balls. Simultaneously, Genoa’s strength in wide delivery and crossing—led by Aarón Martín’s four assists—provides them with a reliable route to goal against a Roma side that can be caught on the counter-attack.
Risk Factor: Genoa’s high aerial duel win rate (17.3) could neutralise Roma’s crossing threats, leading to a lower-scoring draw.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Questions & Answers
⊕ What does ‘Roma to Win & BTTS’ actually mean?
This is a combination market where you need Roma to win the match and both teams to score at least one goal. For the bet to win, scorelines like 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 in Roma’s favour are required.
⊕ Is Correct Score a reliable market for Serie A?
Correct Score markets are inherently volatile because they require the exact final score to be correct. While they offer high odds, they are less reliable than Match Result markets due to the precision needed.
⊕ Who is the biggest goal threat for Roma?
Donyell Malen is the primary threat, having scored 6 goals in 7 appearances. His average of 5.1 shots per game makes him a constant danger to the Genoa defence.
⊕ Can Genoa’s home form influence the outcome?
Yes, Genoa have scored at least twice in their last four home league matches. This scoring consistency suggests they are highly likely to find the net against Roma.
⊕ How does Roma’s possession style affect the match?
Roma control 56.7% of the ball, which allows them to pin Genoa back. This sustained pressure often leads to a higher volume of shots and better quality chances.
⊕ What is the main risk for the 2-1 prediction?
The main risk is Genoa’s aerial dominance. If they successfully defend Roma’s crosses, they may limit the visitors to a single goal or a draw.
⊕ Why is BTTS likely in this fixture?
Genoa’s home scoring streak (2+ goals in 4 games) combined with Roma’s attacking quality and recent defensive lapses (2 conceded vs Juve) makes goals at both ends probable.
⊕ How often do Roma keep clean sheets?
Roma have 15 clean sheets this season, which is significantly more than Genoa’s 7. This suggests they have the structure to shut teams out, even away from home.
Last Odds Update: Mar 7, 16:26 GMT | Editorial Policy
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