France vs Poland predictions ahead of this Euro 2024 clash as Group D wraps up. France, two-time Euros winners, will face eliminated Poland at Borussia Dortmund’s Westfalenstadion in their final Euro 2024 group stage game Tuesday. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 25, 2024 at 5pm UK at Signal-Iduna-Park
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France vs Poland Predictions
Key Stats
– France average 3.6 goals per game in Euro 2024 qualification.
– Poland have conceded five goals in their last two matches at Euro 2024.
– France have kept six clean sheets in their last eight competitive matches.
Can France Seal Top Spot Against Poland in Group D Finale?
As Euro 2024’s group stage draws to a close, France face Poland in a pivotal match at Borussia Dortmund’s Westfalenstadion. With both teams having had contrasting fortunes in the tournament so far, this clash promises to be a fascinating encounter. France, with their hopes of topping Group D still alive, will be aiming for a strong performance, while Poland will be playing for pride after an early exit. Let’s delve into a detailed analysis of both teams, expected strategies, and predictions for this crucial match.
France’s Tournament Journey
France’s campaign at Euro 2024 has been marked by a mixture of solid defence and missed opportunities. They started with a narrow 1-0 victory over Austria, a match where their defensive organisation shone but their attacking prowess was somewhat muted. This was followed by a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, a game marred by controversy as a late Dutch goal was disallowed, much to the relief of Didier Deschamps and his squad.
Despite these results, there have been bright spots for France. The performances of Theo Hernandez and N’Golo Kante have been commendable, and the return of Kylian Mbappe from injury is a significant boost. Mbappe’s absence was felt against the Netherlands, but his involvement in a behind-closed-doors friendly, where he scored twice, indicates he’s ready to make an impact.
Poland’s Struggles
Poland’s Euro 2024 journey has been disappointing, with the team already eliminated following losses to the Netherlands and Austria. Manager Michal Probierz, who took over in September 2023, has struggled to galvanise the squad at this tournament. The absence of Robert Lewandowski for much of the group stage due to injury has severely hampered their offensive capabilities.
Against Austria, Poland showed glimpses of potential, particularly when Lewandowski was introduced in the second half, but it was too little, too late. Their defensive frailties have been exposed, conceding five goals in two matches, which doesn’t bode well against a French side looking to secure their place in the knockout stages.
Tactical Analysis
France are likely to stick with their 4-2-3-1 formation, with Maignan in goal, a back four of Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, and Hernandez, and a midfield pivot of Kante and Rabiot. The attacking trio of Dembele, Griezmann, and Thuram will support Mbappe, who is expected to lead the line. Deschamps’ conservative approach might give way to a more attacking setup, especially if they need goals to secure the top spot in the group.
Poland, on the other hand, will probably set up in a 3-5-2 formation. Szczesny will be the last line of defence, with a back three of Bednarek, Dawidowicz, and Kiwior. The midfield will be anchored by Zielinski and Moder, with Frankowski and Zalewski providing width. Upfront, Swiderski is likely to partner Lewandowski, who will be eager to make his mark in what could be his final appearance in a major tournament.
Expected Lineups
France: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Dembele, Griezmann, Thuram; Mbappe
Poland: Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Zielinski, Slisz, Moder, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
France’s Approach France’s offensive strategy has been underwhelming thus far, characterised by a cautious build-up and reliance on individual brilliance. Didier Deschamps prefers a 4-2-3-1 formation, utilising the pace and skill of wingers like Ousmane Dembele and Marcus Thuram to stretch the opposition. However, the absence of Kylian Mbappe against the Netherlands highlighted their dependency on him. Mbappe’s expected return is likely to rejuvenate their attack, offering both pace and a clinical edge. Defensively, France have been robust, as evidenced by their six clean sheets in their last eight competitive matches. The centre-back pairing of Saliba and Upamecano provides solidity, while Theo Hernandez offers attacking support from the left-back position.
Poland’s Tactics Poland, managed by Michal Probierz, employ a 3-5-2 formation, aiming to use wing-backs Frankowski and Zalewski to supply crosses for their forwards. However, their offensive strategy has faltered, primarily due to the injury to talisman Robert Lewandowski, who has been limited in his participation. Defensively, Poland have struggled, conceding five goals in their two group stage matches. The central defensive trio of Bednarek, Dawidowicz, and Kiwior has been porous, often caught out by quick transitions and failing to adequately protect goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny.
Individual Performances
France Key players for France include Kylian Mbappe, whose return is highly anticipated. Mbappe’s ability to change the game’s dynamics with his pace and finishing was sorely missed against the Netherlands. Antoine Griezmann has been active, although he has yet to score; his involvement in playmaking remains crucial. Theo Hernandez has impressed with his overlapping runs and defensive diligence. N’Golo Kante, as always, is vital in breaking up play and providing a shield for the defence.
Poland For Poland, Piotr Zielinski has been a standout, trying to orchestrate attacks from midfield. Nicola Zalewski has shown promise on the left wing, but his impact has been limited by the overall team performance. Robert Lewandowski, despite his limited play, remains a critical figure, and his presence in the final game could provide a much-needed boost.
Managerial Impact
Didier Deschamps Deschamps’ conservative tactics have drawn criticism, particularly given the talent at his disposal. While his approach ensures defensive solidity, it often stifles France’s offensive potential. The reluctance to fully utilise the attacking prowess of players like Dembele and Griezmann has been questioned, especially in matches where a more aggressive stance could have secured victories.
Michal Probierz Probierz’s tenure has been marked by mixed results. His recent appointment and positive start with the team showed promise, but Poland’s performance at Euro 2024 has been disappointing. His decision to initially bench Lewandowski against the Netherlands was contentious, and his defensive setup has not been effective in the face of stronger teams.
Expected Goals Analysis
France’s expected goals (xG) metric reflects their attacking struggles and defensive reliability. With an xG of 3.6 goals per game in the qualification rounds, their actual performance has been below expectations, particularly against the Netherlands where they failed to score. Poland, with an xG of 1.5, have underperformed offensively, managing only sporadic threats against superior opposition.
Tactical Comparison
France France’s tactical setup is designed to control possession and create through wide areas. Their ball possession rate of 64% and accurate passing in the opposition half indicate a methodical build-up. However, the lack of penetration and over-reliance on individual brilliance can be a downfall against well-organised defences.
Poland Poland’s 3-5-2 formation aims for a balanced approach but often lacks fluidity in transition from defence to attack. Their higher possession rate of 66.6% belies their inefficacy in creating clear-cut chances, reflected in their low goals per game statistic. The defensive trio has not provided the necessary stability, leading to frequent lapses and conceded goals.
Suggestions for Improvement
France France could benefit from a more aggressive approach, particularly against weaker defences like Poland’s. Utilising a higher press and quicker transitions could exploit Poland’s defensive vulnerabilities. Ensuring that Mbappe receives adequate support from midfield and wing positions will be crucial. Deschamps might also consider a 4-3-3 formation to better utilise his attacking options and create more direct chances.
Poland Poland need to tighten their defensive organisation and improve their transitional play. Reinforcing the midfield with a more dynamic presence like Zielinski could help in both defensive coverage and attacking transitions. Probierz should focus on leveraging Lewandowski’s abilities by ensuring he receives better service from the wings and midfield. A shift to a 4-4-2 formation could provide more defensive solidity while maintaining an attacking threat.
Pros and Cons of Strategies
France Pros:
- Strong defensive foundation with minimal goals conceded.
- High possession rate allows control of the game.
Cons:
- Over-reliance on individual brilliance, particularly from Mbappe.
- Conservative tactics limit offensive potential.
Poland Pros:
- Potential for strong midfield control with high possession.
- Presence of a world-class forward in Lewandowski.
Cons:
- Defensive frailties with frequent lapses leading to goals.
- Ineffective offensive transitions and limited clear-cut chances.
Potential Game Dynamics
Given the contrasting styles and current form, the dynamics of the game could see France dominating possession and creating multiple chances, especially with Mbappe’s return. Poland are likely to adopt a defensive stance, looking to counter-attack through Lewandowski. The French defence will need to remain vigilant against Poland’s sporadic but potentially dangerous counters. Expect France to push aggressively for goals, particularly in the first half, to secure their position in the knockout stages.
Critique of Management
Didier Deschamps’ management has been pragmatic but uninspiring. The conservative approach may ensure defensive stability but at the cost of offensive fluidity and entertainment. With the wealth of attacking talent at his disposal, Deschamps’ reluctance to adopt a more adventurous strategy is baffling and could be his undoing in the latter stages of the tournament. In contrast, Michal Probierz’s short tenure has shown promise but his inability to solidify the defence and effectively utilise Lewandowski raises questions about his tactical acumen.
Predictions
Best Bet: France -1 to Win
The best bet for this match is France to win with a -1 handicap. France’s superior quality and depth in their squad give them a distinct advantage over Poland. Despite not firing on all cylinders in their first two matches, Les Bleus have shown they can control games and maintain defensive solidity.
With Mbappe expected to return to the starting lineup, France’s attacking threat will be significantly enhanced. Poland, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding five goals in their two group stage matches. Given the need for France to secure a convincing win to potentially top the group, they are likely to be on the front foot throughout the match. This, combined with Poland’s defensive vulnerabilities, makes France -1 a compelling bet.
Correct Score Prediction: France 3-1 Poland
Predicting a 3-1 victory for France aligns with their need to score goals to ensure they secure the top spot in Group D. France’s attack, bolstered by the return of Mbappe, is expected to capitalise on Poland’s defensive frailties. Although France have been cautious in their approach so far, the necessity to win convincingly might see them adopt a more aggressive strategy.
Poland, while struggling defensively, have shown they can find the back of the net, particularly with Lewandowski likely to feature prominently. Thus, a 3-1 scoreline reflects France’s attacking prowess while acknowledging Poland’s potential to score a consolation goal.
Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappe to Score
Kylian Mbappe’s return to the lineup is a significant boost for France. His pace, skill, and clinical finishing make him a constant threat to any defence. Mbappe’s ability to create and convert chances is well-documented, and his performance in a recent behind-closed-doors friendly, where he scored twice, indicates he is in excellent form.
Facing a Polish defence that has conceded five goals in two matches, Mbappe is likely to find opportunities to score. Given his talent and current form, backing Mbappe to score in this match is a strong prediction.
Corner Prediction: France to Win the Corner Count
France have averaged 5.6 corners per game in their recent matches, indicative of their attacking style and dominance in possession. Against a Polish side that has struggled defensively and is likely to be on the back foot, France should generate numerous attacking opportunities, leading to a higher corner count.
Poland, while capable of winning corners, may find it challenging to match France’s frequency given their expected defensive posture in this match. Therefore, France are likely to win the corner count, reflecting their overall dominance in the game.
Shot on Target Prediction: Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann has been integral to France’s attacking play, creating and taking numerous chances. Despite not scoring yet in the tournament, Griezmann has managed several shots on target, demonstrating his willingness to test the goalkeeper. With Mbappe’s return likely to draw more defensive attention, Griezmann might find himself with more space and opportunities to shoot.
His expected goals tally and the number of shots he has taken so far suggest that he is due for a breakthrough. Thus, predicting Griezmann to have at least one shot on target is a reasonable expectation.
Yellow Card Prediction: Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek, tasked with the daunting job of defending against France’s potent attack, is likely to be under significant pressure. His role as a central defender means he will be directly involved in stopping players like Mbappe and Griezmann.
Given the pace and skill of these attackers, Bednarek may be forced into making crucial challenges, which increases his chances of receiving a yellow card. His defensive responsibilities and the high stakes of the match make him a prime candidate for a booking.
Assist Prediction: Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann’s vision and creativity make him a key playmaker for France. With Mbappe returning to the lineup, Griezmann will have a top-class target for his passes. Griezmann has shown his ability to deliver precise balls into dangerous areas, and with Poland’s defensive struggles, he is well-placed to register an assist. His role in the team and his previous performances suggest that he will be instrumental in setting up goals, making him a strong candidate for an assist in this match.
Innovative Market Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score
Given the data and the dynamics of this match, predicting over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is a strong market choice. France need to win convincingly to secure the top spot in the group, which means they are likely to adopt an attacking approach. Poland, although eliminated, will play for pride and with Lewandowski in the team, they have the capability to score.
France’s defensive solidity may be tested, but their attacking prowess suggests they will score multiple goals. The combination of these factors makes this market prediction a compelling one, reflecting the expected openness and goal-scoring potential of the match.
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