France vs Belgium predictions for this Euro 2024 tie. France and Belgium, 2018 World Cup semi-final foes, headline the Euro 2024 last-16 ties in Dusseldorf on Monday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
European Championship | Round of 16 – Jul 1, 2024 at 5pm UK at Merkur Spiel-Arena
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France vs Belgium Predictions
Key Stats
– France have conceded only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions.
– Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku has yet to score in Euro 2024, despite multiple attempts.
– Kylian Mbappe has scored France’s only penalty goal in the tournament so far.
Euro 2024 Last-16 Clash: France vs Belgium – What to Expect?
A much-anticipated rematch of the 2018 World Cup semi-final sees France and Belgium face off in the Euro 2024 last-16 at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf. Despite their potential, both teams settled for second place in their groups following unexpected draws in their final group-stage matches, setting the stage for a thrilling knockout encounter.
Match Preview
With Kylian Mbappe breaking his scoring drought at the Euros with a penalty against Poland, France will be eager to find their attacking rhythm. However, their defensive prowess, having conceded just one goal in the group stages, remains a key strength. Belgium, on the other hand, managed only two goals in their group matches, highlighting their offensive struggles despite the presence of Romelu Lukaku.
Team Analysis
France
France’s journey through the group stage saw them secure a win against Austria, but draws against Poland and the Netherlands revealed some vulnerabilities. Didier Deschamps’ side boasts a robust defence, anchored by Mike Maignan in goal and supported by the likes of Jules Kounde and Dayot Upamecano. The midfield duo of N’Golo Kante and Aurelien Tchouameni provides a solid foundation, while the attacking trio of Ousmane Dembele, Antoine Griezmann, and Adrien Rabiot look to support the prolific Mbappe.
Expected Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni; Dembele, Griezmann, Rabiot; Mbappe
Deschamps is likely to revert to a 4-2-3-1 formation, reinstating Griezmann to add creativity. Rabiot’s potential shift to the left flank demonstrates tactical flexibility aimed at exploiting Belgium’s defensive gaps.
Belgium
Belgium’s path to the knockout stages included a crucial win against Romania but was marred by a lacklustre draw with Ukraine. Domenico Tedesco’s team is characterised by a strong defensive unit, led by Koen Casteels and a mix of experienced and emerging talents like Jan Vertonghen and Wout Faes. The midfield combination of Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana is tasked with both shielding the defence and initiating attacks, while Kevin De Bruyne remains their creative fulcrum.
Expected Lineup: Casteels; Castagne, Faes, Vertonghen, Theate; Tielemans, Onana; Doku, De Bruyne, Carrasco; Lukaku
Tedesco’s formation could see the reintroduction of Dodi Lukebakio, adding width and pace. Carrasco’s performance in the previous match likely secures his place, aiming to stretch France’s defence and create spaces for Lukaku.
Key Players
France: Kylian Mbappe Mbappe’s ability to change games with his pace and clinical finishing makes him a constant threat. His confidence after scoring against Poland could be pivotal for France’s attacking aspirations.
Belgium: Kevin De Bruyne De Bruyne’s vision and passing range are crucial for Belgium’s chances. His ability to unlock defences with precise through balls and set-piece delivery will be vital against France’s solid backline.
Tactical Insights
France’s defensive solidity, highlighted by their impressive group stage record, will likely see them adopt a cautious approach, relying on quick transitions and counter-attacks. Mbappe’s speed and Dembele’s dribbling ability will be key in exploiting any defensive lapses from Belgium.
Belgium, meanwhile, needs to resolve their attacking inefficiencies. Lukaku’s presence as a target man can disrupt France’s defence, but they must ensure better service from wide areas and set-pieces, where De Bruyne and Carrasco can be influential.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
France and Belgium approach their offensive and defensive strategies with distinct philosophies. Didier Deschamps’ France emphasise a balanced approach, relying on solid defensive foundations and swift counter-attacks. The presence of Kylian Mbappe upfront, supported by the creativity of Antoine Griezmann and the pace of Ousmane Dembele, allows France to strike quickly. Mbappe’s ability to exploit spaces behind the defence and his finishing skills make him pivotal in France’s attacking strategy. Defensively, France are robust, conceding only one goal in the group stages. Mike Maignan’s goalkeeping and the central defensive partnership of Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba provide stability at the back.
Belgium, under Domenico Tedesco, have struggled to find their offensive rhythm. Romelu Lukaku’s lack of goals is symptomatic of their broader attacking issues. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative hub, but Belgium’s over-reliance on him has made their attacks predictable. Defensively, Belgium have been relatively solid, conceding only one goal, thanks to the performances of Koen Casteels and the experienced Jan Vertonghen. However, their inability to convert chances remains a significant drawback, with players like Yannick Carrasco and Jeremy Doku failing to provide consistent support to Lukaku.
Key Player Performances
For France, Kylian Mbappe’s performance against Poland, where he scored a penalty, highlighted his importance. Despite initial struggles, his goal has lifted some pressure, and his speed and dribbling are crucial for France. Antoine Griezmann, though benched in the last group game, is expected to return and add creativity and vision to the team. Mike Maignan has been reliable between the posts, crucially saving a penalty against Poland, even though it was retaken.
Belgium’s standout performer has been Kevin De Bruyne, whose playmaking abilities are second to none. His vision and passing range have created opportunities, although his teammates have not always capitalised. Koen Casteels has been instrumental in goal, making crucial saves to keep Belgium in the tournament. Romelu Lukaku, however, has underperformed, with three disallowed goals and a general lack of sharpness in front of goal.
Managerial Impact
Didier Deschamps’ management style emphasises discipline and defensive solidity, but his reluctance to make bold attacking changes has been questioned. His decision to bench Griezmann against Poland, while understandable for rotation, was met with criticism given the team’s need for creativity. Deschamps’ cautious approach has resulted in low-scoring games, which, while effective defensively, has stifled France’s attacking potential.
Domenico Tedesco’s tenure with Belgium has been marked by inconsistency. While his defensive organisation is commendable, his inability to solve Belgium’s attacking woes is glaring. Tedesco’s tactical adjustments, such as starting Leandro Trossard against Ukraine, have not yielded the desired results, highlighting a lack of effective in-game management. His dependence on De Bruyne and Lukaku without fostering a cohesive attacking unit has drawn criticism.
Expected Goals Analysis
France have struggled to convert their chances, with an average of 0.7 goals per game despite creating 3 big chances per match. This indicates a discrepancy between their potential and actual output, possibly due to poor finishing or lack of clinical edge. Mbappe’s solitary penalty goal and an own goal underscore their inefficiency in open play.
Belgium’s expected goals (xG) suggest they should be scoring more than their current average of 0.7 goals per game. Their inability to finish chances, as seen with Lukaku’s offside goals, reflects a need for better execution in the final third. Despite creating fewer big chances than France, their xG indicates they have underperformed in terms of finishing.
Tactical Comparison
Tactically, France’s balance between attack and defence is more refined. They transition swiftly, with Mbappe and Dembele exploiting wide spaces, supported by Griezmann’s central creativity. Defensively, their compact structure, led by Upamecano and Saliba, has been difficult to breach.
Belgium, in contrast, have a more fragmented approach. Their reliance on individual brilliance from De Bruyne and Lukaku’s physical presence often leads to isolated attacks. Defensively, while solid, their lack of a coherent pressing strategy leaves gaps that opponents can exploit. The midfield pairing of Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana has been industrious but lacks the creative spark to link defence and attack effectively.
Improvement Suggestions
France need to enhance their attacking fluidity. Deschamps should consider more consistent roles for creative players like Griezmann and encourage overlapping runs from full-backs to stretch defences. Integrating Marcus Thuram earlier in games could also add a different attacking dimension.
Belgium must diversify their attacking strategies. Tedesco should develop a more cohesive attacking plan that does not rely solely on De Bruyne. Incorporating Doku’s pace and Carrasco’s dribbling skills more effectively could provide the width and unpredictability they need. Improving Lukaku’s support and positioning can also help maximise his goal-scoring opportunities.
Strengths and Weaknesses
France’s strength lies in their balanced squad, combining defensive solidity with potential for explosive counter-attacks. However, their over-reliance on Mbappe and occasional lack of creativity in midfield are weaknesses. Deschamps’ conservative approach can also hinder their attacking flow.
Belgium’s strengths include their experienced defence and the playmaking of De Bruyne. However, their attacking predictability and Lukaku’s inconsistent form are significant drawbacks. Tedesco’s tactical rigidity and failure to adapt during games have also been detrimental.
Critique of Belgium
Belgium’s approach under Tedesco has been nothing short of lacklustre. His inability to craft a cohesive attacking unit despite having top talents like De Bruyne and Lukaku is a glaring failure. The decision to persist with ineffective tactical setups and player selections, such as starting Trossard against Ukraine, highlights his tactical ineptitude.
Tedesco’s over-reliance on De Bruyne has made Belgium one-dimensional, and his failure to address Lukaku’s form or integrate dynamic players like Doku effectively has stifled Belgium’s attacking potential. The Red Devils need a strategic overhaul if they are to challenge top-tier teams convincingly.
Predictions
Best Bet: France and Over 2.5 Goals
The most promising bet for this encounter is backing France to win with over 2.5 goals in the match. Despite both teams’ defensive solidity, their attacking firepower cannot be overlooked. France’s Kylian Mbappe, now brimming with confidence after breaking his Euros duck, is poised to spearhead the French attack. Belgium, while defensively sound, have shown vulnerabilities that France can exploit, especially through swift counter-attacks.
Additionally, France’s defensive stability means they are likely to control the game and create numerous scoring opportunities. The combination of France’s attacking depth and Belgium’s need to push forward could lead to an open game, resulting in a scoreline with over 2.5 goals.
Correct Score: France 2-1 Belgium
Predicting a correct score of 2-1 in favour of France aligns well with the expectation of a competitive yet slightly tilted match. France’s ability to maintain a solid defensive line while capitalising on counter-attacks makes them favourites. Belgium, despite their offensive struggles, possess enough quality to breach the French defence at least once.
Kevin De Bruyne’s creativity and Lukaku’s physical presence could pose problems for the French backline. However, France’s overall team cohesion and Mbappe’s finishing prowess suggest they will edge out Belgium with a 2-1 victory, reflecting a tightly contested but ultimately successful outing for Les Bleus.
Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappe to Score
Kylian Mbappe is the player to watch for scoring in this match. Having found the net against Poland, he will be keen to continue his goal-scoring form. His pace, skill, and ability to exploit spaces behind the defence make him a constant threat.
Belgium’s defence, although strong, has shown lapses that a player of Mbappe’s calibre can exploit. With Griezmann and Dembele providing creative support, Mbappe is likely to get several opportunities to score. His record in big matches and his recent form suggest he will find the back of the net at least once in this high-stakes encounter.
Corner Prediction: France to Win More Corners
France’s attacking style, especially their utilisation of wingers like Ousmane Dembele, means they are likely to dominate the corner count. Dembele’s dribbling and tendency to take on defenders will naturally lead to more corner opportunities. Moreover, France’s overall attacking play, involving overlapping full-backs and crosses into the box, will further increase their corner tally.
Belgium, while capable of generating corners through players like Carrasco, might find themselves more on the defensive, thus conceding more corners to France. Expect France to lead in this aspect, leveraging their attacking prowess and frequent wide play.
Shots on Target Prediction: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne is a safe bet for registering shots on target. As Belgium’s chief playmaker, De Bruyne has the licence to shoot from distance and is known for his accuracy. His ability to strike from outside the box and during set-pieces makes him a constant threat.
Given the tight defences, De Bruyne’s efforts from midfield could be crucial for Belgium’s chances. He consistently looks to test the goalkeeper and, in a match of this magnitude, will likely take on the responsibility to try and make a difference, ensuring he has multiple shots on target.
Yellow Card Prediction: Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot is a likely candidate for a yellow card in this match. His role in midfield involves breaking up play and making crucial tackles, which often leads to fouls. Rabiot’s aggressive style and his previous record of committing fouls in the tournament suggest he will be involved in physical duels.
Against a technically proficient Belgian midfield, Rabiot’s defensive duties will increase, leading to a higher chance of committing bookable offences. His propensity to get stuck in and disrupt play makes him a prime candidate for receiving a yellow card in this high-pressure match.
Assist Prediction: Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann is expected to be the main provider of assists in this game. His role as a playmaker means he will be at the heart of France’s attacking moves. Griezmann’s vision and ability to deliver precise passes into the box make him a crucial figure in setting up goals.
With Mbappe and Dembele making runs and positioning themselves to receive key passes, Griezmann is likely to create several scoring opportunities. His understanding with Mbappe, in particular, increases the likelihood of him providing an assist, as he consistently looks to unlock defences with his intelligent play.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for France
An intriguing market to consider is the total team shots on target for France. Given their attacking depth and the form of key players like Mbappe and Griezmann, France are expected to test Belgium’s goalkeeper frequently.
Their style of play, which involves quick transitions and utilising wide areas, will naturally lead to more shots on target. With players capable of striking from distance and creating chances inside the box, backing France to have a high number of shots on target is a strong bet. This market leverages France’s offensive capabilities and their tendency to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities.
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