Fortaleza vs Fluminense predictions for this Brazil Serie A tie. Fluminense aim to end their poor form against Fortaleza at Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo in Brasileiro on Sunday night. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jul 7, 2024 at 8pm UK at Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo
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Fortaleza vs Fluminense Predictions
Can Fortaleza Continue Their Home Dominance Against Struggling Fluminense?
Key Stats
– Fortaleza have won all their home matches in the Brasileiro this season, maintaining clean sheets in three of their last four.
– Fluminense have lost all seven of their away fixtures, failing to score in five of those matches.
– Juan Martin Lucero has scored ten of his twelve goals this season at home, highlighting his importance in Fortaleza’s attack.
Fluminense will aim to end their dismal run of form when they travel to face Fortaleza at Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo in the Brasileiro on Sunday night. Currently anchored at the bottom of the league table after 14 matches, Fluminense will face a mid-table Fortaleza side who have gathered 20 points from 13 matches.
Match Preview
Fortaleza will look to return to winning ways after their four-match unbeaten streak was halted by Vasco da Gama. In their last outing, Fortaleza started strong but were undone by a red card to Hercules in the 39th minute, leading to goals from Mateus Carvalho and Pablo Vegetti, which saw them lose 2-0.
Despite this setback, Fortaleza’s home form has been impeccable. They are unbeaten at home this season with a record of four wins and three draws. Their last home defeat dates back to mid-November of the previous year against Cruzeiro. The team has managed to score in every home match since, while maintaining clean sheets in three of their last four games.
On the other hand, Fluminense’s season has been nothing short of a disaster. They have managed only seven points from 14 matches and are four points adrift of the team above them, Atletico Goianiense. A six-match losing streak culminated in a 1-0 defeat to Gremio, leading to the sacking of manager Fernando Diniz, who had previously led them to their first-ever Copa Libertadores title.
Under new manager Mano Menezes, Fluminense managed a 1-1 draw in his first match in charge, marking their first goal in over 400 minutes of league football. Despite this slight improvement, they are yet to secure a point away from home, losing all six of their away fixtures so far.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Fortaleza’s Predicted Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Ricardo
- Defenders: Tinga, Britez, Titi, Pacheco
- Midfielders: Augusto, Sasha, Marinho, Pochettino
- Forwards: Lopes, Lucero
Fluminense’s Predicted Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Fabio
- Defenders: Xavier, Carlos, Santos, Barbosa
- Midfielders: Andre, Lima, Gomes, Ganso
- Forwards: Cano, Keno
Fortaleza will be without Kervin Andrade, who is on Copa America duty, and injured players Pedro Rocha, Ze Welison, Emmanuel Martinez, and Moises. Calebe has resumed training but remains a selection doubt. Fluminense will miss Lele and Andre, both yet to feature this season, alongside long-term absentees Isaac, Manoel, and Marcelo. Jhon Arias is still with Colombia at Copa America.
Key Areas and Player Battles
The midfield battle between Fortaleza’s Augusto and Fluminense’s Andre will be crucial. Augusto’s role in breaking up play and launching counter-attacks will be vital for Fortaleza, while Andre’s ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively will be key for Fluminense.
In attack, Juan Martin Lucero’s form at home makes him a significant threat. With ten of his twelve goals this season coming at home, Lucero’s ability to exploit spaces in Fluminense’s defence could be decisive. On the other side, Germán Cano will lead Fluminense’s attack, hoping to break down a solid Fortaleza backline.
Tactical Approaches and Expected Gameplay
Fortaleza are likely to adopt an attacking approach, looking to leverage their strong home form. They will aim to dominate possession, press high, and create chances through quick transitions and wide play. Their recent home games suggest a strategy focused on early goals and solid defensive organisation.
Fluminense, given their struggles, are expected to play more conservatively. Menezes might set up his team to absorb pressure and hit Fortaleza on the break, relying on the pace of Keno and the finishing ability of Cano. Their primary aim will be to avoid conceding early and to build confidence through sustained defensive efforts.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Fortaleza’s Strengths:
- Excellent home form with an unbeaten streak at home this season.
- Consistent scoring ability, particularly through Lucero.
Fortaleza’s Weaknesses:
- Vulnerability to red cards and disciplinary issues, as seen in their last match.
- Occasional lapses in defensive concentration, particularly in away games.
Fluminense’s Strengths:
- Recent managerial change could provide a fresh tactical approach.
- The potential for a morale boost following their first goal in over 400 minutes.
Fluminense’s Weaknesses:
- Horrific away form with no points secured on the road.
- Poor defensive record, with a high number of goals conceded.
Managerial Analysis and Critique
Fortaleza’s manager Juan Pablo Vojvoda has effectively utilised his squad’s strengths at home. However, his tactical rigidity away from home needs addressing. The inability to adapt to away games has cost the team valuable points, and this could hinder their progress if not rectified.
On the contrary, Mano Menezes faces a daunting task at Fluminense. While his appointment brings experience, the squad’s lack of depth and poor form will challenge his tactical acumen. His initial game showed some promise, but Fluminense need a more proactive approach to climb out of the relegation zone.
Predictions
Best Bet: Fortaleza to Win to Nil
Given Fortaleza’s impeccable home form and Fluminense’s abysmal away record, the best bet is for Fortaleza to win without conceding. Fortaleza have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games, while Fluminense have failed to score in five of their seven away matches this season. This prediction aligns with the form and statistical trends observed.
Correct Score Prediction: Fortaleza 2-0 Fluminense
Fortaleza’s consistent home performances and Fluminense’s defensive frailties suggest a 2-0 victory for the hosts. Fortaleza have scored exactly once in five of their seven home matches, and Fluminense have lost three of their last four games by the same scoreline. This correct score prediction reflects Fortaleza’s scoring pattern and Fluminense’s inability to find the net on their travels.
Goalscorer Prediction: Juan Martin Lucero to Score
Lucero’s home form has been exceptional, with ten of his twelve goals this season coming at home. His recent record, with four goals in his last three home matches, makes him a strong candidate to score against Fluminense. Given Fluminense’s defensive vulnerabilities, Lucero is likely to find the net in this match.
First Half Result Prediction: Fortaleza to Lead at Half Time
Fortaleza have been dominant in the early stages of their home matches, often taking the lead in the first half. With Fluminense struggling to establish a foothold in games, it is likely that Fortaleza will be ahead at half time. This prediction is supported by Fortaleza’s aggressive home approach and Fluminense’s poor away form.
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