Fluminense vs Flamengo Prediction predictions for this Brazilian Serie A affair. Fluminense, struggling at the bottom, face top-tier Flamengo at the Maracana Stadium on Sunday in Brazil’s biggest club rivalry. Read on for our free Brazilian Serie A predictions and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jun 23, 2024 at 8pm UK at Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
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Fluminense vs Flamengo Predictions
Can Fluminense Upset Flamengo in the Fla-Flu Derby?
Key Stats
– Fluminense have conceded 18 goals in ten league matches, the second-highest in the league.
– Flamengo have scored 18 goals in ten matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game.
– Pedro has contributed to Flamengo’s scoring with three goals and four assists this season.
Fluminense and Flamengo face off in one of Brazil’s most storied rivalries at the Maracanã on Sunday. This edition of the Fla-Flu derby finds the two teams in contrasting positions. Fluminense are at the bottom of the league, struggling to find form, while Flamengo are riding high at the top.
Recent Form and Team Analysis
Fluminense have endured a torrid start to their season, having lost six of their first ten league matches and drawing the other four. This dismal run has left them with just six points from a possible 30, placing them in the relegation zone for the first time in nearly 15 years. Their most recent outing ended in a 2-0 defeat to Cruzeiro, extending their winless streak to seven games in the league. A major issue for Fluminense has been their defence, which has conceded 18 goals, the second-highest in the league.
In stark contrast, Flamengo are in excellent form, sitting at the top of the table with 21 points from ten matches. They secured a dramatic 2-1 victory over Bahia in their last game, thanks to a stoppage-time goal from David Luiz. Flamengo have been unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions and have maintained an unbeaten record in their five away league games this season.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Setup
For Fluminense, the absence of key players like Jhon Arias, who is on international duty, and Andre Trindade, out with a knee injury, has compounded their problems. The team is expected to line up with Fabio in goal, supported by a back four of Xavier, Marlon, Melo, and Marcelo. The midfield will likely feature Ganso, Lima, and Martinelli, while Costa, Cano, and Kennedy will lead the attack. Ganso, a pivotal player, needs to inspire creativity and control in the midfield to give Fluminense a fighting chance.
Flamengo will be without several key players due to international duty, including Erick Pulgar and Nicolás De La Cruz. Despite these absences, they boast a strong squad with Rossi in goal, protected by Wesley, Pereira, Luiz, and Lucas in defence. The midfield trio will likely be Gerson, Ortiz, and Lorran, with Araujo, Everton, and Pedro forming the attacking trident. Pedro, in particular, will be crucial for Flamengo’s offensive play, providing both goals and assists.
Key Battles and Tactical Insights
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Fluminense’s Ganso and Martinelli up against Flamengo’s Gerson and Ortiz. Ganso’s ability to dictate play and create opportunities will be pivotal for Fluminense, while Gerson’s dynamic presence and defensive work rate will be essential for Flamengo.
In attack, Fluminense’s Cano will need to exploit any defensive lapses from Flamengo. His movement and finishing ability are vital for Fluminense’s chances. Meanwhile, Flamengo’s Pedro will aim to leverage his goal-scoring form against a shaky Fluminense defence. The defensive pairing of Melo and Marlon for Fluminense must be at their best to contain him.
Gameplay Predictions
Given the current form and statistics, Flamengo are likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. They average 54.3% possession and 15.6 shots per game, with 5.9 on target. Fluminense, despite averaging 58.9% possession, have struggled defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per game. This defensive frailty could be exploited by Flamengo’s potent attack, which averages 1.8 goals per game.
Areas of Improvement
Fluminense need to shore up their defence, which has been a significant weak point. Conceding 18 goals in ten matches is a worrying trend that needs immediate attention. Improving their defensive organisation and reducing errors will be crucial. Additionally, they must convert more of their big chances, averaging just 1.7 per game, to secure vital points.
Flamengo need to maintain their defensive solidity while ensuring their attacking players remain effective despite key absences. Their ability to adapt to the absences of key players will be a test of their squad depth and tactical flexibility.
Managerial Analysis
Fernando Diniz of Fluminense is under immense pressure due to the team’s poor form. His tactics have been questioned, and he needs to find a way to galvanise his squad. Improving defensive discipline and instilling confidence in his players will be critical.
Tite of Flamengo has managed to keep his team performing at a high level despite the loss of key players to international duty. His tactical nous and ability to adapt will be essential as Flamengo look to maintain their lead at the top of the table.
Predictions
Best Bet: Flamengo to Win Given Flamengo’s superior form and Fluminense’s struggles, betting on Flamengo to secure a win is advisable. Their unbeaten run and solid defensive record give them a clear advantage.
Correct Score Prediction: Fluminense 1-3 Flamengo Considering Flamengo’s attacking prowess and Fluminense’s defensive issues, a 3-1 victory for Flamengo seems likely. Flamengo have the firepower to exploit Fluminense’s vulnerabilities while maintaining their defensive resilience.
Goalscorer Prediction: Pedro to Score Pedro has been in fine form, contributing both goals and assists. His ability to find the net makes him a strong candidate to score in this match, especially against a leaky Fluminense defence.
First Team to Score: Flamengo Flamengo’s attacking efficiency and Fluminense’s defensive frailties suggest that Flamengo will likely open the scoring. Their ability to start games strongly supports this prediction.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Flamengo Over 5.5 Flamengo average 5.9 shots on target per game. Given Fluminense’s defensive record, betting on Flamengo to have over 5.5 shots on target offers good value.
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