Fiorentina vs Napoli Predictions

Fiorentina vs Napoli predictions for this Serie A clash. Fiorentina to face Napoli in a closely contested Serie A match, separated by only two points in the standings. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.


Serie A  | Gameweek 37 – May 17, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Stadio Artemio Franchi

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Fiorentina vs Napoli Predictions

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Fiorentina vs Napoli: A High-Scoring Battle for European Glory

Key Stats

– Fiorentina have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six games.

– Napoli have conceded in their last 15 Serie A matches.

– Nicolas Gonzalez has scored three goals in his last two Serie A games.

Separated by a mere two points and one spot in the Serie A standings, Fiorentina and Napoli face off at the Artemio Franchi Stadium in a highly anticipated match. Fiorentina, currently eighth in the league, host ninth-placed Napoli, with both teams striving for a crucial win to bolster their European qualification hopes. This article delves into the intricate details of the upcoming match, including team news, key player battles, tactical analyses, and five insightful predictions.

Match Preview

Fiorentina are riding high after securing a place in the Europa Conference League final by defeating Club Brugge. Their recent Serie A form is commendable, with victories against Monza, Sassuolo, and Salernitana, although they remain inconsistent at times. With Vincenzo Italiano set to step down as head coach at the end of the season, Fiorentina are eager to give him a memorable send-off, particularly in what could be his final home match.

Napoli, on the other hand, have struggled under the interim management of Francesco Calzona, managing just three points from their last five league matches. Despite being the 2022-23 Serie A champions, their recent form has been underwhelming, as evidenced by their 2-0 defeat to Bologna. Napoli’s defensive frailties have been glaring, with the team conceding in each of their last 15 Serie A games.

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Expected Lineups and Tactical Outlook

Fiorentina’s Predicted Lineup:

  • Goalkeeper: Pietro Terracciano
  • Defenders: Michael Kayode, Lucas MartĂ­nez Quarta, Nikola Milenković, Cristiano Biraghi
  • Midfielders: Rolando Mandragora, Arthur Melo, Gaetano Castrovilli
  • Forwards: Nicolas Gonzalez, AntonĂ­n Barák, Lucas Beltrán

Fiorentina’s formation likely leans towards a balanced 4-3-3 setup, with Gonzalez and Barák supporting Beltrán upfront. The midfield, anchored by Arthur Melo, aims to control possession and transition smoothly between defence and attack.

Napoli’s Predicted Lineup:

  • Goalkeeper: Alex Meret
  • Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, MathĂ­as Olivera
  • Midfielders: Jens Cajuste, Stanislav Lobotka, Frank Anguissa
  • Forwards: Matteo Politano, Giacomo Raspadori, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Napoli might opt for a flexible 4-3-3, emphasizing quick transitions and exploiting the flanks with Politano and Kvaratskhelia. The midfield trio of Cajuste, Lobotka, and Anguissa provides a blend of defensive solidity and creative support.

Key Player Battles

Nicolas Gonzalez vs. Amir Rrahmani

Gonzalez, Fiorentina’s top scorer, faces a tough challenge against Rrahmani. Gonzalez’s agility and sharp shooting will test Rrahmani’s defensive discipline.

Giacomo Raspadori vs. Nikola Milenković

Raspadori, likely leading Napoli’s attack, will find himself in direct confrontation with Milenković. The Serbian defender’s physicality and aerial prowess will be crucial in containing Raspadori’s dynamic movement.

Tactical Analyses

Fiorentina’s Strategy: Fiorentina’s attacking strategy hinges on maintaining possession and creating chances through their midfield dynamism. With a high pressing game, they aim to disrupt Napoli’s build-up play. Defensively, their backline needs to tighten up, as they have struggled to keep clean sheets at home.

Napoli’s Strategy: Napoli will look to exploit counter-attacks, leveraging the pace of Kvaratskhelia and Politano. Their midfield must focus on breaking up Fiorentina’s play and initiating swift transitions. Defensively, they need to address their susceptibility to conceding, especially against teams that dominate possession.

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Strengths and Weaknesses


  • Strengths: Strong home form, effective pressing, and a balanced attack.
  • Weaknesses: Defensive lapses and inconsistent performances.


  • Strengths: Quick counter-attacks, strong individual talents like Kvaratskhelia.
  • Weaknesses: Poor defensive record, lack of consistency under interim management.

Managerial Critique

Vincenzo Italiano: Italiano has brought a refreshing attacking philosophy to Fiorentina. However, his side’s defensive vulnerabilities and occasional tactical rigidity have been areas of concern.

Francesco Calzona: Calzona’s tenure has been marred by inconsistency. His inability to solidify Napoli’s defence and inspire consistent performances raises questions about his tactical acumen.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Fiorentina’s xG stats indicate a team capable of creating numerous scoring opportunities, averaging 1.5 goals per game. Napoli’s xG similarly reflects their attacking potency, but their defensive xG highlights their vulnerability, with 1.3 goals conceded per game. This match is likely to feature goals, given both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive shortcomings.

Betting Predictions


1. Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals Considering both teams’ attacking prowess and defensive issues, betting on over 2.5 goals is the most reliable prediction. Fiorentina’s recent home games have been high-scoring affairs, and Napoli’s tendency to concede suggests a goal-laden match.

2. Correct Score: Fiorentina 3-2 Napoli A thrilling encounter is on the cards, with Fiorentina likely to edge out Napoli. Given their home form and Napoli’s defensive struggles, a 3-2 scoreline seems plausible.

3. Goalscorer: Nicolas Gonzalez Gonzalez has been in fine form, netting three goals in his last two league games. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a strong candidate to score against Napoli.

4. Corner Prediction: Fiorentina to Win More Corners Fiorentina, with an average of 5.3 corners per game, are likely to win more corners than Napoli. Their attacking style and home advantage will see them push forward frequently, creating numerous corner opportunities.

5. Innovative Market: Total Cards Over 3.5 Both teams have shown a propensity for physical play. Fiorentina average 2.1 yellow cards per game, and Napoli are not far behind. In a high-stakes match, tempers could flare, making a bet on over 3.5 total cards a sound option.

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!