Fiorentina vs Monza Predictions

Fiorentina vs Monza predictions ahead of this Italian Serie A fixture. Fiorentina, fresh from reaching a European final, hosts mid-table Monza in Serie A at Stadio Franchi. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.


Serie A | Gameweek 36 – May 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Stadio Artemio Franchi

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Fiorentina vs Monza Predictions

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Strategic Stalemate: Fiorentina and Monza Brace for Tactical Battle in Serie A’s Mid-Table Tussle

Key Stats

– Fiorentina has used 17 different goal scorers this season, the highest in Serie A.

– Monza has drawn three of their last four matches, underscoring their defensive resilience but also their struggles to clinch victories.

– Both teams have a similar form, with nine points each from their last eight games, highlighting their comparable levels of performance and the closely matched nature of this fixture.

As Fiorentina and Monza prepare to face off at Stadio Franchi, the stakes are uniquely poised for both teams. Fiorentina, fresh from securing a spot in the Europa Conference League final, returns to domestic action aiming to consolidate their league position, while Monza seeks stability after a season of mixed results. This match offers not just a test of physical stamina but also of tactical wits between Vincenzo Italiano and Raffaele Palladino.

Tactical Dynamics and Key Battles

Fiorentina, under Italiano, exhibits a fluid attacking style, heavily reliant on dynamic movements and interchanges among forwards like Gaetano Castrovilli and Lucas Martínez Quarta. Their formation typically adapts to a 4-3-3, allowing them to maintain width and press high against opponents. This approach, however, will be tested by Monza’s structured and disciplined 3-5-2 setup, which focuses on compactness and counter-attacks spearheaded by the aerial threat of Milan Djuric.

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The central midfield battle will be crucial, with Fiorentina’s Alfred Duncan and Sofyan Amrabat needing to outmanoeuvre Monza’s robust duo of Matteo Pessina and Roberto Gagliardini. Another intriguing duel will be on the flanks, where Fiorentina’s full-backs, particularly Cristiano Biraghi, will challenge Monza’s wing-backs, potentially determining the flow and width of the game.

Strategic Implications and Managerial Influence

Italiano’s strategy of rotating his squad could play a pivotal role, especially considering the physical and psychological toll of their recent European outing. Monza’s coach, Palladino, might see this as an opportunity to exploit any fatigue with strategic pressing and quick transitions, aiming to disrupt Fiorentina’s rhythm.

Fiorentina’s tendency to rely on set-pieces and individual brilliance might need reevaluation, as Monza has shown resilience in defending against such tactics. Conversely, Monza’s pragmatic approach, while effective on the road, often lacks the creativity needed to break down organised defences, something Palladino has been criticised for not addressing adequately.

Expected Goals and Performance Metrics

Both teams have shown a discrepancy between expected goals (xG) and actual goals, with Fiorentina often underperforming in converting chances, especially in critical moments. Monza’s xG statistics suggest they are not creating enough high-quality chances, which could be detrimental against a side like Fiorentina that, despite its inconsistencies, often controls the game’s tempo.

Predictions and Tactical Forecasts


Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Given both teams’ recent form and tactical setups, a low-scoring affair seems likely. Fiorentina’s focus on defensive solidity post-Europe and Monza’s struggle to convert chances should contribute to a game where opportunities are scarce.

Correct Score Prediction: 1-1 Draw Reflecting the best bet, a 1-1 draw is a probable outcome. This scoreline aligns with both teams’ recent performances, where defensive organisation has generally outshone offensive prowess, and neither side has consistently broken down well-structured defences.

Goalscorer Prediction: Gaetano Castrovilli If there’s a breakthrough from Fiorentina, Castrovilli could be central. His ability to arrive late in the box and his recent form, including a goal in his last outing, positions him as a likely candidate to score.

First Half Result: Draw Considering the tactical nature of both teams, a cautious start is anticipated. Fiorentina, possibly fatigued from their European exertions, and Monza, aiming to keep things tight, are likely to go into the break level, setting up a tense second half.

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!