Everton vs Nottingham Forest predictions, betting tips and match preview ahead of this Premier League clash. Everton and Nottingham Forest, both struggling in the Premier League, face off in the ‘points deduction derby’ at Goodison Park, crucial for relegation battle. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
Premier League | Gameweek 34 – Apr 21, 2024 at 1.30pm UK at Goodison Park
Everton vs Nottingham Forest Predictions
Don’t Have a Parimatch Account? Click Below To Claim this Offer👇
Edge of Survival: Tensions High in the Relegation Scrap at Goodison Park
Key Stats
– Everton have lost more home games than any other team in the league this season.
– Nottingham Forest have not won an away game in 2024.
– Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in his last two appearances for Everton.
Goodison Park, known for its intense atmosphere, is the battleground for a crucial encounter between two teams struggling to avoid relegation: Everton and Nottingham Forest. Labelled the ‘points deduction derby’, this clash promises high stakes and tense football as both sides vie crucially for Premier League survival.
Team Form and Recent Encounters
Everton, still reeling from a heavy defeat against Chelsea, faces Nottingham Forest who secured a draw against Wolves. Both teams have shown glimpses of competitiveness despite their lower league standings, with Everton’s home advantage counterbalanced by Forest’s urgent need for points away from home. Historical data from last season shows tight encounters between these two, with a recent victory for Everton at the City Ground.
Key Match-Up and Tactical Analysis
Everton’s defensive woes are evident, having conceded multiple goals in recent matches, which puts the spotlight on James Tarkowski to lead a recovery at the back. In contrast, Nottingham Forest, under Nuno Espirito Santo, has shown some resilience but lacks consistency, especially on the road.
The midfield battle will be crucial. Everton’s duo of Amadou Onana and Abdoulaye Doucouré will need to disrupt Forest’s creative axis of Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo. The wings might also prove decisive, where Dwight McNeil’s creativity for Everton could be key against Forest’s defensive flanks.
Expected Line-Ups and Impact
Everton: Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Harrison, Onana, Gomes, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin.
Nottingham Forest: Sels; Williams, Omobamidele, Murillo, Aina; Danilo, Yates; Reyna, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s potential return could provide Everton with the attacking sharpness they have been missing, while Forest will rely heavily on Gibbs-White and Chris Wood to threaten from counter-attacks. Both lineups suggest a tactical battle where midfield control and quick transitions will be pivotal.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Everton, under Sean Dyche, tend to exhibit a quintessential British football approach: direct and physical. Their strategy often revolves around solid defensive structures and exploiting set-pieces. In their recent drubbing by Chelsea, Everton’s defence, usually marshalled by James Tarkowski, was uncharacteristically porous, exposing a critical vulnerability against fast, attacking playmakers like Cole Palmer. Offensively, despite Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s prowess as a target man, Everton’s goal-scoring record is underwhelming, indicating a lack of creativity and penetration in the final third. The reliance on Calvert-Lewin is apparent, but the service to him has often been lacking, as shown by their low average of goals per game.
On the flip side, Nottingham Forest, guided by Nuno Espirito Santo, attempt to play a more nuanced game with a focus on tactical flexibility. Santo’s preference for a counter-attacking style is evident, with players like Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood playing pivotal roles. Gibbs-White, in particular, showcases significant influence in transitioning play, with his ability to drift between lines and link up play, which was crucial in their draw against Wolverhampton. However, Forest’s defensive frailties, particularly in away games, are a glaring issue, highlighted by their inability to keep clean sheets on the road since October.
Managerial Influence and Style Impact
Dyche’s impact on Everton has been a mixed bag. His strategy aimed at making Everton tough to beat has not yet yielded the desired consistency, as evidenced by their current precarious position near the relegation zone. The defensive solidity Dyche is known for has been missing, calling into question his adaptation to the team’s inherent traits and the league’s evolving dynamics.
Contrastingly, Santo’s tenure at Nottingham Forest has had its bright spots, particularly in how the team has become more resilient compared to their early season form. Santo’s experience and tactical acumen have seen Forest pull off crucial results, but his challenge remains to convert draws into wins, especially in matches that could dictate their top-flight survival.
Expected Goals and Performance Metrics
The expected goals (xG) metric provides an interesting insight into both teams’ offensive outputs versus their actual goals scored. Everton’s xG suggests a slight underperformance, indicative of their finishing issues or perhaps an overly conservative approach in attack. Forest’s xG aligns more closely with their actual goals scored, suggesting that their attacking output meets the expectations based on the chances they create.
Comparative Tactical and Player Analysis
Tactically, both teams share a cautious approach but differ in execution. Everton’s struggle is more about conversion and creativity, whereas Forest’s issue lies in game management and defensive stability. Player-wise, Everton’s reliance on Calvert-Lewin for goals is a stark contrast to Forest’s more distributed goal-scoring responsibility, where Wood and Gibbs-White contribute significantly.
Controversial Critique: Sean Dyche’s Approach
Critically examining Sean Dyche’s approach at Everton invites controversy. His style, often criticised for being overly defensive and somewhat antiquated, may not be the best fit for a club with Everton’s aspirations and current squad. This season, Dyche’s tactics have often resulted in Everton appearing disjointed, especially in matches against technically superior teams. His reluctance to adapt to a more dynamic attacking style has arguably cost Everton valuable points, leaving them flirting dangerously with relegation.
Suggestions for Improvement
For Everton, a strategic shift is necessary. Introducing more creativity in midfield could enhance their attacking dimensions, potentially providing better service to Calvert-Lewin. On the other hand, Forest could benefit from tightening their defensive organisation, particularly in away games, to complement their decent attacking play.
Predictions
1. Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
This match features two teams that have been struggling for form, particularly in front of goal. Everton’s offensive output at home has been meagre, aligning with their record of scoring only 32 goals in 32 matches this season. Nottingham Forest, while slightly better, have also had issues converting chances, especially away from home.
Given the high stakes of this relegation battle, a cautious approach from both sides is anticipated, which traditionally leads to fewer scoring opportunities. The urgency not to lose might overshadow the need to play expansively, making a bet on under 2.5 total goals scored a sound prediction.
2. Correct Score: Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest
Reflecting the best bet of a low-scoring game, a 1-1 draw is a plausible outcome given the context and form of both teams. Historical encounters and recent form suggest little to separate the sides, with both teams finding the net in their respective last matches but failing to secure wins.
This prediction banks on each team’s desperation to avoid defeat, likely resulting in one goal apiece as they strive to balance defensive solidity with the need for crucial points.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s anticipated return could be a game-changer for Everton. His physicality and aerial prowess make him a constant threat, particularly against a Forest defence that has shown vulnerability.
Calvert-Lewin has scored in his last two appearances, and with Everton’s reliance on his goal-scoring abilities, especially in critical fixtures, it stands to reason he could find the back of the net once again. His role as the focal point in Everton’s attack underlines this prediction, as he will likely receive ample service from the flanks and through set pieces.
4. Corner Prediction: Everton > Nottingham Forest, Total Corners: Over 9
Everton’s style of play under pressure, particularly at home, suggests they will push forward and win corners. This tendency is amplified by Forest’s defensive approach on the road, where they aim to absorb pressure and counter.
Given the expected dynamics of the game, with Everton likely attacking more, a higher number of corners from their side seems likely. A total of over nine corners for the match aligns with both teams’ need to forge opportunities from set-pieces, an area where both have shown some proficiency.
5. Shot on Target Prediction: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White stands out as a key offensive threat for Nottingham Forest, given his ability to operate effectively in the final third. His track record this season in creating and taking chances adds weight to this prediction.
Gibbs-White is known for his willingness to shoot from range and his capacity to find space in tight areas, making him likely to test the goalkeeper. His involvement in direct free kicks and his penchant for attempting daring shots make him a prime candidate to have at least one shot on target.
6. Yellow Card Prediction: James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski is central to Everton’s defence and is often tasked with managing the opposition’s most threatening players.
His aggressive style of play and the high stakes of this match make it likely that he could receive a caution. Tarkowski’s role often puts him in challenging positions where tactical fouls become necessary, and in a game where tensions will be high, a booking seems probable for the Everton defender.
7. Assist Prediction: Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil’s role as Everton’s primary creative outlet this season has been significant, leading the team in assists. His ability to deliver quality crosses from open play and set pieces makes him a likely candidate to register an assist.
Against a Forest team that has struggled defensively, particularly on the road, McNeil’s precision in delivering the ball into key areas will be crucial. His consistent performance in creating chances for his teammates underlines this prediction, with an expectation that he will add to his assist tally in this crucial fixture.
Top UK Bookies & Best Sign Up Offers
Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips
Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!
