England vs Slovenia predictions ahead of this affair at Euro 2024. England need a point against Slovenia on Tuesday to secure Euro 2024 last-16 qualification at RheinEnergieStadion. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 25, 2024 at 8pm UK at Sokoine Stadium
Don’t have a William Hill account? Click below to claim this offer👇
England vs Slovenia Predictions
Key Stats
– England have seen fewer than three goals in each of their last three matches.
– Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in his last 12 competitive games for England.
– Slovenia have drawn their last three matches 1-1, showcasing their resilience and ability to score late goals.
Can England Secure a Victory in Their Final Group Stage Match Against Slovenia?
In their concluding match of the Group C stage at Euro 2024, England will face Slovenia at the RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne. Gareth Southgate’s squad, with four points from their two previous matches, will be aiming to secure their place in the last 16. While England’s performances have been lacklustre, they remain on the brink of qualification, whereas Slovenia are still hunting for their first win in the tournament.
The Three Lions began their campaign with a narrow victory over Serbia, followed by a draw against Denmark. Despite Harry Kane’s goal in the latter match, England’s display was unconvincing, marred by lethargy and tactical confusion. This inconsistency has sparked concerns about their ability to press opponents effectively and maintain control of the game. Nevertheless, a win against Slovenia would not only ensure progression but also possibly secure top spot in the group, thereby avoiding a tougher opponent in the knockout stages.
Slovenia, on the other hand, have shown resilience but have yet to secure a victory, drawing both of their matches. Their latest game saw them nearly claim a win against Serbia, only for a late equaliser to deny them. They currently sit in third place, level on points with Denmark, and a victory over England could see them progress.
Team News
For England, the primary concern is the fitness of Luke Shaw, who is still recovering from an injury. Gareth Southgate is expected to make tactical adjustments, potentially abandoning the experiment of playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield. This might see Conor Gallagher or Jude Bellingham deployed in deeper roles, allowing more creative freedom for Phil Foden. The expected lineup includes Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier; Bellingham, Rice; Saka, Foden, Gordon; Kane.
Slovenia’s preparations have been disrupted by concerns over key players’ fitness. Benjamin Sesko, despite muscle cramps in the previous game, is expected to lead the attack, while goalkeeper Jan Oblak’s participation was in doubt after missing training. However, it would be surprising not to see Oblak start, given his crucial saves in the previous match. The anticipated lineup is Oblak; Karnicnik, Brekalo, Bijol, Janza; Mlakar, Elsnik, Cerin, Stojanovic; Sporar, Sesko.
Analysis of Performances
England have been efficient but not impressive. Their defence, led by John Stones and Marc Guehi, has been relatively solid, conceding just once in the tournament. However, their attacking prowess has been called into question. Harry Kane remains the key figure in attack, but the team has struggled to create clear-cut chances. The midfield combination of Bellingham and Rice has been robust but lacks the creativity needed to break down well-organised defences.
Slovenia, despite their underdog status, have shown they can compete. Their defence, marshalled by Jan Oblak, has been resolute, conceding only twice. In attack, Benjamin Sesko has been a standout performer, using his pace and strength to trouble defences. Slovenia’s ability to score late goals indicates their persistence and resilience, qualities that will be crucial against England.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
In their recent matches, England have displayed a pragmatic approach both offensively and defensively. Gareth Southgate’s men tend to maintain possession, averaging 62.8% ball possession, which allows them to control the tempo of the game. Offensively, England rely heavily on Harry Kane as the focal point of their attack. Kane’s movement and positioning have been critical, as seen with his goal against Denmark, where he exploited defensive gaps. Supporting him, players like Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden provide width and creativity. Saka, with his ability to cut inside and shoot, and Foden, known for his dribbling and passing, add layers to England’s offensive strategies.
Defensively, England have been relatively solid, conceding only four goals in eight matches. Their backline, featuring John Stones and Marc Guehi, has been adept at intercepting and clearing threats. However, their approach can sometimes be too conservative, as noted in the match against Denmark where they sat back after taking the lead, only to be punished by Morten Hjulmand’s long-range effort. Declan Rice plays a crucial role in shielding the defence, breaking up play and providing a link between defence and attack.
Slovenia, on the other hand, have adopted a more defensive strategy, particularly evident in their recent matches. They prefer to sit deep and absorb pressure, looking to hit opponents on the counter-attack. Jan Oblak, their star goalkeeper, is pivotal in this setup, making crucial saves to keep them in the game. Offensively, Slovenia rely on the pace and physicality of Benjamin Sesko, who often spearheads their counter-attacks. Their midfield, led by Adam Gnezda Cerin, is responsible for transitioning the play from defence to attack quickly.
Individual Performances of Key Players
Harry Kane has been England’s standout performer, scoring crucial goals and leading the line with authority. His ability to drop deep and link up play, combined with his lethal finishing, makes him indispensable. Bukayo Saka has also been impressive, providing direct runs and goal-scoring opportunities. His dribbling and shooting have added a new dimension to England’s attack. Phil Foden, while creative, has faced criticism for not replicating his club form, but his potential to unlock defences remains significant.
For Slovenia, Benjamin Sesko has been a revelation. His ability to pick up the ball in dangerous areas, run at defenders, and shoot on sight makes him a constant threat. Jan Oblak’s performances in goal have been exceptional, with his shot-stopping abilities keeping Slovenia competitive in matches. Adam Gnezda Cerin’s role in midfield, providing stability and launching counter-attacks, has also been crucial for Slovenia.
Impact of Management
Gareth Southgate’s management style has been both praised and criticised. His pragmatic approach has ensured England’s defensive solidity, but it has also been blamed for their lack of creativity and fluidity in attack. Southgate’s reluctance to make radical changes and his conservative tactics have drawn criticism, especially when England fail to capitalise on their attacking potential. The decision to play Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield, which did not yield the desired results, highlights the experimental yet cautious nature of his tactics.
Matjaz Kek, managing Slovenia, has instilled a disciplined and resilient mindset in his team. His ability to organise the defence and make them hard to break down has been evident. However, Kek’s reliance on defensive tactics and counter-attacks can be limiting, especially when Slovenia need to take the initiative and score. His management style, while effective in making Slovenia competitive, often lacks the offensive ambition needed to secure victories against stronger opponents.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Expected goals (xG) provide a quantitative measure of the quality of chances created. England’s xG has been relatively high due to their ability to create and take chances, especially through Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka. However, their actual goal tally has sometimes fallen short of their xG, indicating issues in converting chances.
Slovenia’s xG, while lower than England’s, reflects their strategy of creating fewer but high-quality chances, often on the counter-attack. Benjamin Sesko’s involvement has been crucial in this regard, with his ability to generate scoring opportunities from limited chances.
Comparison of Tactics and Performances
Comparing the two teams, England’s tactics revolve around controlling possession and methodically breaking down defences. Their reliance on key players like Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka for goals highlights their strategy of using wide players to stretch defences and create scoring opportunities. Defensively, England’s approach is structured, aiming to maintain shape and limit opposition chances.
Slovenia, conversely, focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. Their strategy is built around absorbing pressure and hitting teams on the break, with Benjamin Sesko’s pace and Jan Oblak’s goalkeeping being pivotal. This approach, while effective in limiting goals conceded, often restricts their offensive output.
Suggestions for Improvement
England need to find a better balance between defence and attack. While their defensive solidity is commendable, they must be more adventurous in their attacking play. Incorporating more creative midfielders like Phil Foden in central roles and encouraging full-backs to support attacks could provide the necessary offensive spark. Additionally, Southgate should consider a more flexible tactical approach to adapt to different opponents.
Slovenia, while defensively robust, should focus on improving their attacking strategies. Integrating more midfield creativity and encouraging support for Benjamin Sesko in attack could enhance their goal-scoring capabilities. Matjaz Kek might also benefit from a more proactive approach in certain matches, particularly when they need to secure a win.
Pros and Cons of Strategies
England’s strategy of maintaining possession and defensive solidity is effective in controlling games and limiting opposition chances. However, this approach can stifle their offensive potential, leading to uninspiring performances. Southgate’s conservative tactics often result in missed opportunities to capitalise on their attacking talents.
Slovenia’s defensive discipline and counter-attacking strategy make them tough to break down and capable of surprising stronger teams. However, their reliance on defence and limited offensive ambition can hinder their ability to secure wins, particularly against teams that can dominate possession and create multiple chances.
Controversial Critique of Management
Gareth Southgate’s conservative approach is perhaps the most contentious aspect of England’s recent performances. Despite having a wealth of attacking talent, his tactics often seem overly cautious, stifling the team’s potential. The decision to persist with a more defensive setup, even when a more aggressive approach could yield better results, has frustrated fans and pundits alike. Southgate’s reluctance to make bold changes, such as fully utilising creative players like Phil Foden in central roles, highlights a lack of tactical flexibility. This conservative mindset might ultimately be England’s undoing in the latter stages of the tournament.
In contrast, Matjaz Kek’s management, while defensively sound, lacks offensive innovation. His strict adherence to a counter-attacking strategy often leaves Slovenia with limited options when they need to break down defences. While Kek’s tactics make Slovenia hard to beat, they also restrict the team’s ability to dominate and win matches, particularly against weaker opponents.
Predictions
Best Bet: England to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
England have been solid yet unspectacular in their recent outings. Their defensive setup, led by John Stones and Marc Guehi, has been effective, conceding just once in the tournament so far. Slovenia, known for their disciplined defence, have also managed to keep their opponents at bay, conceding only two goals.
This match is likely to be a tactical battle, with Slovenia content to sit back and absorb pressure. England, needing a result to ensure progression, will be cautious not to overcommit. Given these dynamics, a low-scoring game is highly probable, with England likely to edge it with their superior quality. Therefore, a narrow victory for England, perhaps 1-0, aligns well with the prediction of a win and under 2.5 goals.
Correct Score: England 1-0 Slovenia
Building on the best bet prediction, a 1-0 scoreline for England seems the most plausible. Slovenia’s defensive resilience means they are unlikely to concede many goals, but their lack of firepower upfront will struggle against England’s organised defence. England’s recent form shows a pattern of winning by narrow margins, as evidenced by their 1-0 victory over Serbia in their opening match.
Harry Kane remains England’s most potent attacking threat and could be the difference-maker. With Slovenia focused on defence, England might find it challenging to score more than once, making a 1-0 win a sensible prediction.
Goalscorer: Harry Kane to Score Anytime
Harry Kane is England’s leading goal scorer and has a knack for delivering in crucial moments. His record of 11 goals in his last 12 competitive matches for England highlights his consistent threat in front of goal. Against Slovenia’s well-drilled defence, Kane’s clinical finishing and ability to find space will be crucial.
Given his role as the focal point of England’s attack, he is likely to get chances, especially from set-pieces or through incisive passes from the midfield. Kane’s experience and poise under pressure make him the prime candidate to score at any point during the match.
Corners: England to Win More Corners
England’s style of play, which involves dominating possession and attacking down the flanks, naturally leads to winning more corners. On average, they have 4.5 corners per game, compared to Slovenia’s 3.8. With players like Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden capable of beating defenders and delivering crosses, England are likely to force multiple corners.
Slovenia, likely to play a more defensive game, will have fewer opportunities to win corners themselves. Therefore, England should comfortably win the corner count, reflecting their overall dominance in the match.
Shots on Target: Bukayo Saka to Have 1 or More Shots on Target
Bukayo Saka has been a lively presence on the wing for England. His ability to cut inside and take shots makes him a constant threat. With England expected to control possession and create numerous attacking opportunities, Saka should find himself in positions to test the Slovenian goalkeeper.
In previous matches, he has consistently been able to get shots off, leveraging his quick feet and sharp movement. Given Slovenia’s defensive approach, Saka’s direct style will be crucial in breaking them down, making it likely he will have at least one shot on target.
Yellow Card: Declan Rice to Receive a Yellow Card
Declan Rice’s role as a defensive midfielder involves breaking up play and making crucial tackles, often at the expense of drawing fouls. In a match where England will be pushing forward, Rice will be tasked with stopping Slovenian counter-attacks. His aggressive style and tactical fouls make him a candidate for a yellow card, especially against a Slovenia side that might exploit quick breaks.
Rice has a tendency to commit necessary fouls to prevent dangerous situations, and in a game of this importance, he will likely take a card if it means maintaining England’s defensive solidity.
Assist: Phil Foden to Provide an Assist
Phil Foden’s creative abilities are a significant asset for England. His vision and passing accuracy allow him to unlock defences with incisive through balls and well-placed crosses.
Against Slovenia, who will likely sit deep, Foden’s ability to find pockets of space and deliver precise passes will be crucial. With players like Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka making runs, Foden will have targets to aim for. His recent performances have shown his capability to provide assists, and in a game where England need to break down a stubborn defence, Foden’s creativity will be key.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target Over 5.5
England’s attacking intent and Slovenia’s defensive stance suggest that England will dominate the shooting statistics. England average 5.6 shots on target per game, a figure they are likely to exceed in a match they need to win.
With creative players like Foden and Saka providing opportunities, and Kane leading the line, England should be able to muster a high number of shots on target. Slovenia’s defence will be tested throughout, and England’s persistence will result in several attempts on goal, making over 5.5 shots on target a reasonable expectation.
Top UK Bookies & Best Sign Up Offers
Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips
Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!
