England vs Slovakia Predictions

England vs Slovakia predictions for their Euro 2024 clash. England, advancing past the group stage, face Slovakia in the Euro 2024 knockout phase on Sunday in Gelsenkirchen. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Round of 16 – Jun 30, 2024 at 5pm UK at VELTINS-Arena

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England vs Slovakia Predictions

Can England Overcome Slovakia’s Defensive Tactics in the Euro 2024 Knockout Stage?

As the Euro 2024 knockout phase commences, England are set to face Slovakia in Gelsenkirchen, aiming for a place in the quarter-finals. Both teams have navigated through the group stage successfully, with England topping Group C and Slovakia securing third place in Group E. This encounter will determine who progresses to potentially face Denmark or the Netherlands in the next round.

Match Preview

England’s Euro 2024 campaign has been a mixed bag, with Gareth Southgate’s squad demonstrating defensive solidity but struggling to ignite their attacking prowess. Despite being undefeated, their performances have drawn criticism from fans and pundits alike. The Three Lions began their journey with a narrow victory over Serbia, followed by draws against Denmark and Slovenia. These results, while sufficient to secure top spot in Group C, have highlighted England’s challenges in breaking down well-organised defences.

Slovakia, on the other hand, have showcased their ability to punch above their weight. Their opening victory against Belgium was a testament to their resilience and tactical discipline. Although they subsequently lost to Ukraine and drew with Romania, Slovakia managed to qualify for the last 16 based on their overall group performance. Head coach Francesco Calzona has been instrumental in revitalising the team, adopting a more attacking approach that saw them record 37 shots and 13 on target during the group stages—both national records for Slovakia at a major tournament.

Team Analysis

England

England’s squad for the match is expected to see a few changes due to injuries and returns. Luke Shaw has made himself available after a lengthy injury layoff, while Phil Foden returns after the birth of his child. Captain Harry Kane, despite a subdued tournament so far, remains a critical figure for England. His ability to step up in knockout rounds is well-documented, and his leadership will be crucial in breaking down Slovakia’s defence.

The predicted starting lineup for England is:

• Pickford
• Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier
• Mainoo, Rice
• Saka, Bellingham, Foden
• Kane

This lineup suggests a blend of experience and youth, with the midfield trio of Rice, Mainoo, and Bellingham expected to control the tempo of the game. The return of Foden adds creativity, while Kane’s presence up front will be pivotal.

Slovakia

Slovakia’s consistency in selection under Calzona indicates a stable setup. Key players like Martin Dubravka in goal, Milan Skriniar in defence, and Stanislav Lobotka in midfield form the spine of the team. The attacking trio of Schranz, Bozenik, and Haraslin will look to exploit any defensive lapses from England.

The predicted starting lineup for Slovakia is:

• Dubravka
• Pekarik, Vavro, Skriniar, Hancko
• Kucka, Lobotka, Duda
• Schranz, Bozenik, Haraslin

Slovakia’s strategy is likely to focus on a compact defensive shape, aiming to frustrate England and hit on the counter-attack. Their experience and tactical discipline will be key factors in this matchup.

Tactical and Gameplay Analysis

England’s approach will likely be possession-oriented, aiming to dominate the midfield and patiently break down Slovakia’s defensive setup. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Rice and Bellingham tasked with maintaining control and creating opportunities. The pace and creativity of Saka and Foden on the flanks will be vital in stretching Slovakia’s defence and providing service to Kane.

Slovakia, conversely, will aim to stay compact and organised, relying on quick transitions and set-pieces to create scoring opportunities. Their defensive solidity, combined with the experience of players like Skriniar and Dubravka, will be their main strength. The midfield trio of Kucka, Lobotka, and Duda will play a critical role in breaking up England’s play and launching counter-attacks.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

England’s Approach

England’s recent matches have displayed a cautious, defence-first mentality under Gareth Southgate. The Three Lions have focused on maintaining a solid backline, often relying on their defensive robustness to secure results. John Stones and Marc Guehi have been central to this strategy, providing stability and resilience. England’s full-backs, Kyle Walker and Kieran Trippier, are also crucial, offering width and overlapping runs to support the attack, albeit their primary focus remains defensive solidity.

Offensively, England have struggled to find their rhythm. Their attacking play has been characterised by slow build-ups and a reliance on set-pieces. Harry Kane, their captain and main striker, has been isolated at times, unable to receive the service he needs. The midfield trio of Declan Rice, Kobie Mainoo, and Jude Bellingham are tasked with both protecting the defence and linking up with the forwards, but their contributions have been more defensive than creative.

Slovakia’s Tactics

Slovakia, under Francesco Calzona, have employed a disciplined defensive strategy, complemented by quick transitions and counter-attacks. Their backline, anchored by Milan Skriniar and Denis Vavro, has been robust, allowing them to absorb pressure effectively. Goalkeeper Martin Dubravka’s performances have been crucial, providing a reliable last line of defence.

Offensively, Slovakia rely on the creative spark of Ondrej Duda and the forward movements of Ivan Schranz and Lukas Haraslin. Their strategy involves quick, direct passes to exploit spaces left by the opposition. The midfield, led by Stanislav Lobotka and Juraj Kucka, plays a vital role in breaking up play and initiating counter-attacks.

Individual Performances of Key Players

England

Phil Foden has been one of England’s standout performers, despite limited opportunities. His creativity and vision have been evident, even if his influence has been sporadic. Declan Rice has been a rock in midfield, breaking up opposition play and providing a shield for the defence. However, the attacking line, particularly Harry Kane, has not lived up to expectations, struggling to convert chances.

Slovakia

Lukas Haraslin has been a revelation for Slovakia, using his pace and dribbling skills to great effect. Martin Dubravka’s consistency in goal has been a major asset, often keeping Slovakia in games with crucial saves. Milan Skriniar has led the defence admirably, ensuring Slovakia remain difficult to break down.

Managerial Impact

Gareth Southgate

Southgate’s conservative approach has drawn criticism. His insistence on a defence-first strategy has stifled England’s attacking potential. The lack of fluidity and creativity in England’s play has been glaring, with the team often appearing disjointed. Southgate’s reluctance to adapt and inject more dynamism into the team has been a point of contention.

Francesco Calzona

Calzona has brought a sense of stability and organisation to Slovakia. His pragmatic approach has maximised the team’s strengths, focusing on defensive solidity and efficient counter-attacks. Calzona’s experience and tactical acumen have been instrumental in Slovakia’s progression to the knockout stages, earning praise for his ability to get the best out of his players.

Expected Goals Analysis

England’s expected goals (xG) metrics highlight their struggles in attack. They have generated an xG of only 0.7 per game, indicating a lack of clear-cut chances. Their reliance on set-pieces and long-range efforts is evident, with few goals coming from open play.

Slovakia’s xG is slightly better, at 1.0 per game, reflecting their ability to create more meaningful opportunities. Their direct style of play and effective counter-attacks have translated into a higher xG, showcasing their potential to score against tougher opponents.

Tactical Comparison

England’s tactics revolve around maintaining possession and controlling the tempo, but their lack of penetration in the final third has been problematic. The midfield’s inability to provide incisive passes and the forwards’ struggles to find space have limited their goal-scoring opportunities.

In contrast, Slovakia’s tactics are more direct and pragmatic. They focus on defensive organisation and quick transitions. This approach has allowed them to create chances on the break, with their forwards capitalising on the spaces left by opposition defences.

Suggestions for Improvement

England

1. Increase Creativity: Integrating more creative players like Phil Foden into the starting lineup could enhance their attacking play.
2. Speed Up Play: Faster ball movement and more direct attacking strategies could help break down stubborn defences.
3. Support for Kane: Providing Harry Kane with better service through midfield runners and wingers cutting inside can help him regain his scoring form.

Slovakia

1. Maintain Defensive Discipline: Continuing their disciplined defensive approach will be key against stronger opponents.
2. Exploit Set-Pieces: Given England’s occasional vulnerabilities, focusing on set-pieces could yield scoring opportunities.
3. Enhance Midfield Control: Strengthening their midfield’s ability to retain possession and control the game could help them against possession-dominant teams like England.

Pros and Cons of Strategies

England

• Pros: Solid defence, disciplined structure, high possession.
• Cons: Lack of creativity, slow attacking build-up, isolation of key forwards.

Slovakia

• Pros: Strong defensive organisation, effective counter-attacks, direct play.
• Cons: Dependence on defensive solidity, limited possession control, occasional vulnerability to sustained pressure.

Critique of England’s Approach

England’s current strategy under Southgate has been excessively cautious and lacks the dynamism needed to progress further in the tournament. The reliance on a conservative approach has stifled the team’s natural attacking instincts. Southgate’s unwillingness to adapt and inject creativity into the side has resulted in uninspiring performances.

The disjointed nature of England’s play, characterised by slow build-ups and a lack of incisive passes, has made them predictable and easy to defend against. This rigidity and lack of tactical flexibility could prove to be England’s downfall if not addressed promptly.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: England to Win to Nil

Given the defensive record of England throughout the tournament and their overall form, the best bet for this match is for England to win to nil. England have managed to keep clean sheets in three of their last five matches, showcasing their ability to defend resolutely. Gareth Southgate’s side have been defensively disciplined, with John Stones and Marc Guehi forming a solid partnership at the back.

Slovakia, while capable of scoring, have found it challenging to break down well-organised defences. With Jordan Pickford in goal and a reliable backline, England are well-equipped to keep Slovakia at bay. Additionally, Slovakia have only managed to score three goals in their last five matches, indicating that they may struggle to find the net against a top-tier defensive unit like England’s.

2. Correct Score Prediction: England 1-0 Slovakia

A 1-0 victory for England appears to be a logical outcome based on recent performances and defensive capabilities. England have not been prolific in front of goal, scoring only two goals in the group stages. Their attacking play has lacked the fluidity seen in previous tournaments, but their defence has remained robust.

Slovakia, known for their defensive resilience, are likely to set up with a compact formation, making it difficult for England to score multiple goals. England’s solitary goal could come from a set-piece or a moment of individual brilliance from one of their star players. Given Slovakia’s disciplined defensive approach and England’s conservative attacking play, a narrow 1-0 win for the Three Lions is a reasonable expectation.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Harry Kane

Despite a relatively subdued tournament so far, Harry Kane remains England’s most potent attacking threat. Kane has a remarkable record in knockout stages of major tournaments, having scored six goals in his last six knockout-round appearances. His ability to find space and his clinical finishing make him the prime candidate to break the deadlock against Slovakia.

Kane’s experience and leadership on the pitch will be crucial in a match where patience and precision are needed. Moreover, Kane has been England’s go-to man in tight games, often stepping up when his team needs him the most. With service from creative players like Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka, Kane is well-positioned to find the back of the net at least once in this encounter.

4. Corner Prediction: England to Win More Corners

England’s attacking approach and dominance in possession should result in them winning more corners than Slovakia. Throughout the group stages, England have averaged 3 corners per game, while Slovakia have averaged 5.3. However, considering the expected pattern of play where England are likely to control possession and apply sustained pressure, the Three Lions should earn more corners.

England’s wingers, particularly Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden, often look to get to the byline and deliver crosses, leading to corner opportunities. Additionally, England’s set-piece prowess, with players like Harry Kane and John Stones posing aerial threats, will see them actively seeking corner situations to exploit Slovakia’s defence.

5. Shots on Target Prediction: Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka’s dynamic and direct style of play makes him a prime candidate for shots on target. Saka has been one of England’s standout performers in the tournament, consistently taking on defenders and creating shooting opportunities.

His ability to cut inside from the right flank and unleash shots with his stronger left foot adds to his threat. Saka’s involvement in England’s attacking play, combined with his confidence to take on shots from various positions, should see him test Slovakia’s goalkeeper multiple times. Given Slovakia’s likely deep defensive setup, Saka’s willingness to take shots from outside the box will be crucial in attempting to breach their defence.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Juraj Kucka

Juraj Kucka’s role in Slovakia’s midfield is pivotal, often involving breaking up opposition play and making crucial tackles. His combative style and tendency to get stuck in make him a likely candidate for a yellow card. Kucka’s responsibility in disrupting England’s midfield rhythm will see him engage in numerous duels, increasing the likelihood of committing fouls.

His aggressive approach, while effective in winning possession, also makes him prone to bookings. With the high stakes of a knockout match and the intensity expected, Kucka’s propensity for hard tackles and his commitment to his defensive duties make a yellow card for him a strong possibility.

7. Assist Prediction: Phil Foden

Phil Foden’s creative abilities and vision make him an excellent candidate for providing an assist. Foden’s return to the squad adds a significant boost to England’s attacking options. His deft touches, precise passing, and ability to unlock defences are key attributes that will be crucial against Slovakia’s organised backline.

Foden’s link-up play with Harry Kane and his ability to deliver pinpoint crosses and through balls position him as the most likely player to set up a goal. With Slovakia expected to sit deep, Foden’s creativity in tight spaces will be essential in creating scoring opportunities for his teammates.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 4.5

Considering England’s need to be proactive in this knockout match, betting on them to have over 4.5 shots on target appears to be a strong market. England’s attacking players, including Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden, have the capability to test the Slovakian goalkeeper frequently.

With England expected to dominate possession and Slovakia likely to defend deep, the Three Lions will need to take shots from various positions to break the deadlock. The accumulation of shots from set-pieces, open play, and long-range efforts should see England surpass the 4.5 shots on target mark, given their attacking intent and the quality of their forwards.

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