England vs Italy Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews ahead of Tuesday’s Euro 2024 qualifier at Wembley. England, who are on the verge of qualifying for the finals in Germany, will be keen to avenge their Euro 2020 final defeat against the Azzurri. Read on for our predictions and tips.
Match Live Tuesday, 17th October at 7:45 pm In:
England vs Italy Predictions
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Wembley Awaits: England and Italy’s Euro 2024 Decisive Duel
Key Stats
– Italy’s Giacomo Bonaventura became the oldest debut goal scorer at 34.
– England have maintained clean sheets in 10 out of their last 12 Euro qualifiers.
Under the iconic Wembley arch, two football giants prepare to clash. England and Italy, two years post their unforgettable continental final, gear up for a crucial Euro 2024 qualifier in Group C. As Gareth Southgate’s squad stands on the brink of sealing their Germany ticket, they know the challenge posed by the Azzurri is not to be underestimated.
The Build-up to the Big Game
England’s recent endeavour saw them face Australia, where Southgate prioritised protecting his key players. As the match ensued, the Wembley ambience was subdued, watching the Three Lions’ struggles against the Socceroos. Nonetheless, Ollie Watkins emerged as the hero, securing a victory with his decisive strike. Despite the narrow win, England are now poised for a potential Euro 2024 qualification, two matches ahead of schedule.
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On the other side, Italy overcame an off-pitch betting scandal to deliver a decisive 4-0 victory against Malta. Giacomo Bonaventura marked history as the eldest player to debut a goal for the Azzurri. This, coupled with other crucial goals, including Domenico Berardi’s brace, steered Italy to a confident win.
Current Standing and Recent Performances
England’s impressive stats boast a near-perfect record in Group C. The singular blip against Ukraine hasn’t deterred their spirits. With an impressive 12-match home victory streak in Euro qualifiers and ten clean sheets, England are a formidable force.
Italy, undeterred by their Nations League disappointments, are determined to disrupt England’s stellar record. They’ve rebounded from a setback against Macedonia to secure their second-place standing in Group C.
Team News and Expected Lineups
England’s Southgate enjoys a nearly complete roster, with Bukayo Saka being the notable absentee. After the subdued display against Australia, changes are anticipated. Jordan Henderson, after facing criticism, will likely make way for Declan Rice, while key players like Harry Kane, Phil Foden, and Jordan Pickford are expected to reclaim their starting spots.
Italy, grappling with allegations and injuries affecting players like Sandro Tonali and Federico Chiesa, still promises a strong lineup. Berardi, after his outstanding performance against Malta, is set to continue his role, potentially joined by Giovanni Di Lorenzo and others.
England’s Predicted XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Trippier; Alexander-Arnold, Rice; Foden, Bellingham, Rashford; Kane
Italy’s Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Frattesi, Locatelli, Barella; Berardi, Raspadori, Kean
Tactical Analysis
Reunions often bring a sense of nostalgia, but when England and Italy lock horns under the Wembley arch, it is all about the present and the future. Only two years removed from a nail-biting continental final, the stakes are incredibly high. Gareth Southgate’s England can almost taste the upcoming Euro, while Italy’s Azzurri remains a formidable hurdle on their path.
The Tactical Landscape
Both teams have showcased notable strategies in their recent outings. Southgate’s decision to rest his established internationals against Australia, for instance, has been a hot topic. While England emerged victoriously, courtesy of Ollie Watkins, the performance was hardly dominant. Contrastingly, Italy’s 4-0 triumph against Malta displayed their attacking prowess, with Giacomo Bonaventura and Domenico Berardi shining brightly.
England’s Strategy: The Three Lions often rely on their strong possession game, as their average ball possession of 60.2% suggests. With players like Harry Kane and Jordan Henderson, who’ve tallied assists, England’s offensive style hinges on creating high-quality chances. Their strengths are visible in the 12-game winning streak in Euro qualifiers at home, accompanied by 10 clean sheets.
Italy’s Approach: Italy, under Luciano Spalletti, maintains a higher ball possession of 66%, focusing on ball circulation and controlling the game. Their strategy involves building up from the back, supported by players like Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella, pivotal in providing attacking impetus.
Individual Brilliance Matters
England’s Talismanic Figures: Harry Kane’s contribution can’t be understated; his knack for both scoring and assisting has been evident. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s versatility, allowing him to play in midfield, provides England with a unique dynamism, and the likes of Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden are set to play crucial roles.
Italy’s Star Performers: Moise Kean and Lorenzo Pellegrini have been vital in the attack, while Nicolò Barella’s midfield orchestration is a crucial element of Italy’s game. However, it’s their defensive solidarity, embodied by the likes of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, that provides a robust base.
Impact of Management
Both Southgate and Spalletti have a significant influence on their respective teams. Southgate’s emphasis on youth integration and tactical flexibility has redefined the modern English side. Spalletti, with his tactical nous, has ensured that Italy remains a powerhouse, even post their triumphant European championship campaign.
Expected Goals and Analysis
While England’s 16 goals in 5 matches showcase their attacking efficiency, Italy’s 10 goals suggest a more pragmatic approach. England has averaged 3.2 goals per match, a testament to their clinical nature, while Italy, with 2 goals per match, is methodical but effective.
Comparative View
Tactically, both teams possess their unique strengths. England’s versatility, especially in midfield, offers them varied attacking outlets. Italy’s structured approach, blended with individual brilliance, makes them unpredictable. In terms of player performances, Kane and Kean stand out for their respective teams. Overall, England’s success at home might give them a slight edge, but Italy’s unbeaten run in away qualifiers since 2006 is a looming threat.
Areas for Improvement
England needs to address their occasional defensive lapses and ensure that their attack isn’t overly reliant on individual moments. Italy, while solid, could benefit from injecting more pace into their attacks to surprise oppositions.
Concluding Thoughts on Dynamics and Team Analysis
England’s strengths lie in their attacking prowess and home advantage. However, a slight over-reliance on certain players could be a potential weakness. Italy’s structured gameplay and recent history of away successes are their assets, but they must guard against becoming too predictable.
Tuesday’s fixture isn’t just another match; it’s a clash of tactics, willpower, and history. While Southgate’s lions are roaring towards qualification, Spalletti’s Azzurri are ready to pounce.
Key Stats and Predictions
1. Match Outcome: Draw
Justification: England and Italy both boast impressive recent forms. England’s track record, especially at home, is commendable with a 12-game winning streak in Euro qualifiers. On the other hand, Italy have proven resilient, not having lost a continental qualifier away from home since 2006. Given both teams’ strength, determination, and what’s at stake, a draw seems a feasible outcome. The balance of power between the two sides might see them cancelling each other out in a closely contested match.
2. Correct Score: 1-1
Justification: Both teams have been strong defensively in their qualifying campaigns. England have been prolific, scoring an average of 3.2 goals per match, while Italy’s defence has been formidable in recent games. Taking into consideration the defensive solidity of both teams and the pressure of the occasion, a 1-1 scoreline seems a plausible outcome. Both teams will be keen on avoiding defeat, and while they’ll seek opportunities to score, their defensive awareness might limit the number of goals.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: Harry Kane
Justification: Harry Kane’s stature in England’s attacking lineup is undeniable. He’s been involved in several crucial moments throughout the qualification process, and his statistics back up his importance. As one of the top assist providers for England, his involvement in front of the goal is almost a given. Given his track record, and the weight of the occasion, Kane is likely to rise to the challenge and find the back of the net.
4. Corner Prediction: England to have more corners
Justification: England’s attacking stats reveal that they have been more dominant in front of goal, averaging 13.2 shots per game, and they also have a high ball possession rate of 60.2%. This dominance in attack often results in more corner opportunities. Given their style of play and the likelihood of them pressing high against Italy, England are predicted to win more corners in the encounter.
5. Shot on Target Prediction: Phil Foden
Justification: Phil Foden’s agility, ball control, and ability to find pockets of space make him a constant threat in the attacking third. His propensity to take on defenders and have a go at goal means that he’s often in positions to test the goalkeeper. Given the magnitude of the game and his form, Foden is likely to be one of the players who will register a shot on target.
6. Yellow Card Prediction: Harry Maguire
Justification: While Maguire’s experience and leadership are invaluable for England, his aggressive style of play sometimes sees him getting into the referee’s book. The stats indicate he’s among the top players to receive a yellow card in the competition. In a high-stakes match against Italy, where tensions might run high, Maguire could be at risk of receiving a booking.
7. Assist Prediction: Domenico Berardi
Justification: For Italy, Berardi has shown his capability both in terms of scoring and setting up goals. His impressive performance against Malta is a testament to his current form. Given his ability to deliver accurate crosses and his vision on the pitch, Berardi stands a good chance of providing an assist in the upcoming clash against England.
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