Empoli vs Roma predictions for this crucial Serie A contest. Empoli, needing a win to secure Serie A status, host Roma on Sunday. Empoli must take maximum points to ensure survival. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Serie A | Gameweek 38 – May 26, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadio Carlo Castellani
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Empoli vs Roma Predictions
Desperate Empoli Seek Crucial Win Against Unmotivated Roma
Key Stats
– Empoli have scored the fewest goals in Serie A this season, averaging just 0.7 per game.
– Roma have failed to win their last three away games, highlighting their inconsistency on the road.
– M’Baye Niang has been Empoli’s top scorer with five goals, making him a key player in their fight for survival.
As Empoli prepare to host Roma in their season finale, the stakes could not be higher for the home side. Needing a win to secure their Serie A status, Empoli face a Roma team set to finish sixth regardless of the result. This match offers a chance to delve into the tactical nuances, key player battles, and potential outcomes as Empoli strive to avoid relegation.
Empoli’s Desperate Fight for Survival
Empoli’s campaign has been marked by struggle and intermittent hope. After a dramatic late equaliser from Udinese denied them a crucial win last week, Empoli now find themselves needing a victory to ensure their safety. Despite scoring the fewest goals in Serie A this season, with just 27 in 37 matches, Empoli have shown resilience in critical moments. Under Davide Nicola, known for his escapology acts, they have managed to stay competitive, but their lack of firepower has often been their undoing.
Empoli’s offensive struggles are evident in their statistics. They average just 0.7 goals per game, with five penalties contributing significantly to their tally. Their inability to score from open play is a glaring weakness, further highlighted by their reliance on set pieces. Defensively, Empoli have conceded 53 goals, keeping only nine clean sheets. This defensive frailty, combined with their offensive woes, has left them perilously close to the drop zone.
Roma’s Consistent Yet Unremarkable Season
Roma, on the other hand, have had a steady if unspectacular season. Securing sixth place, they have been consistent but not exceptional. Despite a managerial change mid-season, replacing Jose Mourinho with club legend Daniele De Rossi, Roma’s performance has remained largely the same. Their offensive output of 64 goals, averaging 1.7 per game, has been solid, with key contributions from Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku. However, Lukaku’s suspension for this match could be a significant blow.
Defensively, Roma have conceded 44 goals and kept 11 clean sheets. Their ability to control games through possession, averaging 54.5%, has been a key factor in their performance. Yet, their away form has been less impressive, failing to win their last three road games. This inconsistency away from home could provide Empoli with a glimmer of hope.
Key Tactical Battles
The midfield battle will be crucial in this encounter. Empoli’s midfield trio of Răzvan Marin, Youssef Maleh, and Nicolò Cambiaghi will need to dominate possession and create opportunities for their forwards. Roma’s midfield, led by Lorenzo Pellegrini and Bryan Cristante, must disrupt Empoli’s rhythm and control the tempo of the game.
On the flanks, Empoli’s Gyasi and Pezzella will look to stretch Roma’s defence and deliver crosses into the box. Roma’s full-backs, Celik and Angelino, will have to be vigilant and prevent Empoli’s wide players from creating chances. The duel between Empoli’s M’Baye Niang and Roma’s centre-backs, Mancini and Ndicka, will be another key battle. Niang’s physicality and penalty-taking prowess could be decisive.
Predicted Lineups and Formations
Empoli:
- Goalkeeper: Elia Caprile
- Defenders: Bartosz Bereszyński, Ardian Ismajli, Sebastiano Luperto, Riccardo Fiamozzi
- Midfielders: Răzvan Marin, Youssef Maleh, Nicolò Cambiaghi
- Forwards: Gyasi, M’Baye Niang, Francesco Caputo
Roma:
- Goalkeeper: Mile Svilar
- Defenders: Mehmet Çelik, Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Angelino
- Midfielders: Edoardo Bove, Bryan Cristante, Lorenzo Pellegrini
- Forwards: Paulo Dybala, Tammy Abraham, Stephan El Shaarawy
Empoli are expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation, focusing on compact defence and quick transitions. Roma will likely stick to a 4-3-3 setup, aiming to control possession and exploit the spaces in Empoli’s backline.
Areas for Improvement and Tactical Insights
Empoli:
- Strengths: Resilience in critical moments, solid home form, and penalty-taking accuracy.
- Weaknesses: Lack of offensive firepower, defensive lapses, and over-reliance on set pieces.
- Improvement: Enhancing creativity in open play and maintaining defensive concentration.
Roma:
- Strengths: Consistent goal-scoring, solid possession play, and strong midfield control.
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent away form, defensive vulnerabilities against counter-attacks, and missing key players due to suspension.
- Improvement: Maintaining focus in away games and improving defensive organisation.
Managerial Strengths and Criticism
Davide Nicola’s ability to inspire and organise struggling teams has been evident throughout his career. However, his current side’s offensive struggles highlight a need for more attacking innovation. Daniele De Rossi, in his first managerial role, has maintained Roma’s consistency but has yet to stamp his authority fully. His tactical rigidity and inability to inspire a marked improvement are areas of concern.
Expected Goals Analysis
Empoli’s expected goals (xG) average of 0.7 per game underscores their offensive struggles. Roma’s xG of 1.7 per game reflects their more potent attack, with Dybala and Abraham being key contributors. This disparity suggests Roma will likely create more chances, but Empoli’s desperation could see them convert one of their few opportunities.
Predictions
Best Bet: Empoli to Win
Empoli’s need for three points is paramount, and facing a Roma side with little to play for could give them the edge. Empoli’s solid home form and Roma’s recent away struggles support this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Empoli 1-0 Roma
Given Empoli’s offensive struggles and Roma’s defensive solidity, a low-scoring game is likely. Empoli’s desperation and home advantage suggest they might edge it with a solitary goal.
Goalscorer Prediction: M’Baye Niang to Score Anytime
M’Baye Niang, Empoli’s top scorer with five goals, will be crucial in this match. His penalty-taking prowess and physical presence in the box make him a likely candidate to score.
Corner Prediction: Total Corners Over 8.5
Empoli average 4.6 corners per game, while Roma average 4.4. This suggests a high total corner count, with Empoli pushing for a win and Roma’s counter-attacking threat contributing to this outcome.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 4.5
Given the high stakes for Empoli and the potential for a physical game, a high total card count is likely. Empoli’s aggressive play and Roma’s disciplined defence could see several cards awarded.
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