Dundalk vs Derry City Predictions

Dundalk vs Derry City predictions for this League of Ireland Premier Division contest. Derry City visit Dundalk on Friday, aiming for a win to maintain their second place in the League of Ireland Premier Division. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips

League of Ireland Premier | Gameweek 18 – May 31, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Oriel Park

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Dundalk vs Derry City Predictions

Derry City Aim to Strengthen Position Against Struggling Dundalk

Dundalk host Derry City in a pivotal League of Ireland Premier Division clash on Friday evening. While Derry City seek to consolidate their position in second place, Dundalk are desperate for points to escape the bottom of the table. This article delves into the key aspects of this encounter, analysing team performances, player duels, tactical approaches, and offering data-driven predictions.

Match Preview

Derry City find themselves in a peculiar position. Despite being second in the table, they have struggled to string together consecutive wins, managing to do so only twice this season. Their consistency in collecting points, however, has kept them within striking distance of the top spot. In their last six matches, they have recorded two wins, two draws, and two losses, highlighting their unpredictable form. Their recent outings include narrow 1-0 victories against mid-table teams, a 1-0 defeat to Shamrock Rovers, and a 2-2 draw against Sligo Rovers where they had to come from behind twice.

On the other hand, Dundalk are battling to climb out of the relegation zone. Their season has been fraught with difficulties, securing only two wins so far, both in their last six matches. They have shown some defensive resilience at home, with three consecutive clean sheets at Oriel Park, but scoring remains a challenge. Their attacking woes are underscored by the fact that they have only scored more than one goal in a match once this season. With a seven-point gap to safety, Dundalk need a win to stay in touch with the teams above them.

Team News and Lineups

Dundalk could see Hayden Muller step in for John Mountney, who was withdrawn early against Galway. This might push Mayowa Animasahun into a midfield role, though Jon Daly may also consider a formation change. Up front, Cameron Elliott and Eoin Kenny are alternatives to Jamie Gullan.

Derry City are likely to make changes following their 2-2 draw with Sligo Rovers. Cameron Dummigan, Cameron McJannett, and Patrick McEleney, who all came on in the second half and contributed to the comeback, are in contention to start. Ronan Boyce, Sam Todd, and Sadou Diallo are at risk of losing their places.

Expected starting lineups:

Dundalk: Munro; Davies, Muller, Boyle, Bradshaw, Johnson; Durrant, Doyle, Animasahun, Horgan; Gullan

Derry City: Maher; Dummigan, McElneny, McJannett, Doherty; McEleney, O’Reilly, Patching; McMullan, Hoban, Duffy

Expected Gameplay

Dundalk will likely focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. Their inability to score frequently necessitates a cautious approach, aiming to capitalise on set-pieces and breakaways. Defensively, they have been sound at home, with six consecutive clean sheets, which will be crucial against a potent Derry attack.

Derry City, meanwhile, will look to dominate possession and create opportunities through their high pressing and quick transitions. They have averaged 1.4 goals per game and will rely on their attacking quartet to breach Dundalk’s defence. However, their away form has been inconsistent, and they need to improve their efficiency in front of goal.

Key Player Duels

The midfield clash between Patrick McEleney of Derry and Paul Doyle of Dundalk will be pivotal. McEleney’s creativity and Doyle’s defensive capabilities could determine control of the midfield. In attack, Pat Hoban for Derry and Jamie Gullan for Dundalk will be key, with both players needing to exploit defensive gaps.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Dundalk’s Strengths:

• Defensive solidity at home, evidenced by their recent clean sheets.
• Ability to perform under pressure, as shown in tight matches.

Dundalk’s Weaknesses:

• Struggling offence, with only nine goals in 17 matches.
• Inconsistent performances, often failing to maintain leads.

Derry City’s Strengths:

• High pressing and quick transitions, leading to numerous scoring opportunities.
• Strong midfield control, allowing them to dominate possession.

Derry City’s Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent away form, with only two wins in nine away matches.
• Occasional lapses in concentration, leading to dropped points against lower-ranked teams.

Managerial Insights

Jon Daly’s tenure at Dundalk has been marked by a need to balance defensive solidity with attacking intent. His side has shown resilience but lacks the firepower to consistently trouble opponents. Ruaidhri Higgins at Derry City faces the challenge of maintaining consistency. Despite being near the top of the table, his team’s inability to string together wins has been a stumbling block. Higgins must address these inconsistencies if Derry are to challenge for the title.

Expected Goals Averages

Dundalk’s expected goals (xG) reflect their defensive approach, with low-scoring games being the norm. Their xG is low, correlating with their poor goal-scoring record. Derry City’s xG suggests a more attacking style, with an average of 1.4 goals per game, highlighting their ability to create and convert chances.

Predictions

Best Bet: Derry City to Win

Considering Derry City’s attacking prowess and Dundalk’s struggles in front of goal, Derry are favourites to secure a win. Despite their inconsistent form, Derry’s overall quality should prevail against a defensively focused Dundalk.

Correct Score Prediction: Dundalk 0-2 Derry City

Derry’s superior attack and Dundalk’s scoring difficulties suggest a 2-0 win for the visitors. This scoreline aligns with Derry’s tendency to secure narrow victories and Dundalk’s recent clean sheet record at home.

Goalscorer Prediction: Pat Hoban to Score

Pat Hoban, Derry’s top scorer with nine goals, is likely to add to his tally against Dundalk’s defence. His positioning and finishing ability make him a strong candidate to find the net.

Corner Prediction: Derry City to Win the Most Corners

Derry’s attacking style and high possession rate indicate they will win more corners. They average 5.4 corners per game compared to Dundalk’s 4.4, making this a logical prediction.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target – Derry City Over 5.5

Derry City average 3.8 shots on target per game. Considering Dundalk’s defensive weaknesses, Derry are likely to exceed this average, making this a viable prediction.

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