Djurgarden vs IFK Varnamo Predictions

Djurgardens vs Varnamo predictions for their Allsvenskan affair. Djurgardens IF host Varnamo at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan on Sunday, impacting both the title race and relegation battle. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips

Swedish Allsvenskan | Jul 14, 2024 at 1pm UK at Tele2 Arena

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Can Djurgardens Secure Another Home Victory to Boost Their Title Hopes?

Djurgardens IF face a crucial encounter as they host Varnamo at the Tele2 Arena in Sweden’s Allsvenskan on Sunday. This match holds significant weight for both teams, impacting the title race for Djurgardens and the relegation battle for Varnamo.

Match Overview

Djurgardens enter this match second in the table with 28 points, trailing leaders Malmo by seven points but with a game in hand. Their impressive form this season, averaging 2.15 points per game, marks a significant improvement from their 1.67 points per game average last term. If this form continues, they could achieve their highest points total since their title-winning 2019 season.

Currently, Djurgardens hold one of the Europa Conference League playoff spots, sitting five points clear of fourth-placed Hacken, their closest competitors for the European places. Under the guidance of joint-managers Kim Bergstrand and Thomas Lagerlof, who have been at the helm since November 2018, the team has shown remarkable consistency. The pair have led Djurgardens to multiple top-four finishes and a league title in their first year in charge.

Team Performance and Key Players

Djurgardens have scored 28 goals and conceded 12 this season, making them the league’s second-best offensive and defensive team. Despite a recent setback, losing 3-0 at home to Hammarby, they have won seven of their last eight league matches, keeping five clean sheets in the process. Their home form is particularly strong, with four wins in their last five home games, each time preventing their opponents from scoring.

However, they will be without midfielder Piotr Johansson, who is out for the season with an ACL injury, and Hampus Finndell, who has been sidelined since May 19. Rasmus Schuller is also doubtful due to a foot injury. Despite these absences, Djurgardens are likely to field a strong lineup, including key players like Deniz Hümmet, who has scored seven goals this season, and Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen, who has netted four times.

Expected Djurgardens IF lineup:

• Zetterstrom
• Therkildsen, Tenho, Larsson, Dahl
• Bergvall, Sabovic
• Wikheim, Nguen, Gulliksen
• Hummet

Varnamo’s Challenge

Varnamo, on the other hand, sit ninth in the table with 17 points, only four points clear of the relegation playoff spot. Their form has been mixed, with three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six league games. However, their away form has been commendable, winning their last three league games on the road and four of their six away fixtures this season.

Under the management of Anes Mravac, the league’s youngest coach at 34, Varnamo have scored 17 goals and conceded 19, making them the 12th best offensive and seventh-best defensive team in the division. Mravac’s side will rely heavily on top-scorer Johnbosco Kalu, who has six goals this season, and captain Freddy Winsth.

Expected Varnamo lineup:

• Rasheed
• Wenderson, Larsson, Lohikangas
• Winsth, Adjei, Nasstrom, Bergh
• Engvall, Kalu, Zeljkovic

Game Dynamics and Key Duels

The match could be decided in the midfield, where Djurgardens’ possession-based approach, with an average of 51.8% ball possession, will clash with Varnamo’s slightly lower 47.7% possession. Djurgardens’ ability to control the game through accurate passing, particularly in the opposition half, will be crucial. They average 414 accurate passes per game with an 83.8% success rate, compared to Varnamo’s 390 accurate passes per game at 82.9%.

Key duels will include Djurgardens’ defenders, like Marcus Danielson, against Varnamo’s forwards, notably Johnbosco Kalu. Danielson’s defensive prowess, reflected in his high BettingTips4You rating, will be vital in keeping Kalu at bay. Another critical battle will be in the midfield, where Besard Sabovic and Lucas Bergvall will need to outplay Varnamo’s Frank Junior Adjei and Hampus Nasstrom to control the game’s tempo.

Tactical Insights and Criticisms

Djurgardens’ strategy, focused on solid defence and quick transitions, has been effective, but their reliance on key players like Hümmet and Gulliksen could be a vulnerability. Their attacking play, averaging 15.5 shots per game with 5.2 on target, is potent, yet they must avoid complacency, especially given their recent 3-0 home defeat to Hammarby.

Varnamo’s inconsistency is their biggest weakness. While they have been strong on the road, their inability to string together back-to-back victories has kept them in mid-table. Mravac’s side need to find more attacking consistency, having averaged only 1.3 goals per game, to pose a serious threat to Djurgardens.

Managerial Analysis

Bergstrand and Lagerlof’s tenure at Djurgardens has been marked by tactical astuteness and consistency. Their ability to adapt and improve the team’s performance year after year is commendable. However, their approach can sometimes be overly cautious, especially against weaker teams, which could cost them crucial points.

Mravac, despite his youth and relative inexperience, has shown potential. His bold tactics and motivational skills have been evident in Varnamo’s away performances. Yet, his inability to inspire consistent form at home remains a significant drawback, potentially hindering Varnamo’s progress.

Expected Gameplay

Given their home advantage and superior form, Djurgardens are likely to dominate possession and control the game’s tempo. They will aim to exploit Varnamo’s defensive lapses with quick, incisive attacks, leveraging their higher shots per game and shots on target statistics. Varnamo, meanwhile, will likely adopt a counter-attacking approach, hoping to capitalise on Djurgardens’ occasional defensive errors.

Predictions

Best Bet: Djurgardens to Win and Keep a Clean Sheet

Considering Djurgardens’ strong defensive record and Varnamo’s struggles in front of goal, a home win without conceding seems a solid bet. Djurgardens have kept five clean sheets in their last eight matches, and Varnamo have scored only 17 goals in 13 games, indicating a likelihood of a shutout.

Correct Score Prediction: Djurgardens 2-0 Varnamo

Reflecting Djurgardens’ robust defence and effective attack, a 2-0 scoreline appears plausible. Their average of 2.1 goals per game aligns with this prediction, while Varnamo’s average of 1.5 goals conceded per game supports the likelihood of them not scoring.

Goalscorer Prediction: Deniz Hümmet to Score

Deniz Hümmet, Djurgardens’ top scorer with seven goals, is the most probable player to find the net. His consistent form and pivotal role in Djurgardens’ attack make him a key figure in this match.

Corner Prediction: Over 10 Corners

Djurgardens average six corners per game, while Varnamo average 4.5. Combining these figures, the match is likely to see over 10 corners, especially given Djurgardens’ attacking style and Varnamo’s counter-attacking approach.

Innovative Market: Djurgardens to Have Most Shots on Target

Djurgardens’ average of 5.2 shots on target per game far exceeds Varnamo’s 3.8. Given their superior attacking prowess and home advantage, Djurgardens are expected to have more shots on target, making this a compelling betting angle.

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