Blackburn Rovers vs Derby predictions, betting tips and match previews. Blackburn Rovers and Derby County kick off their Championship campaigns with a clash at Ewood Park on Friday night. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
Championship | Aug 9, 2024 at 8pm UK at Ewood Park
Blackburn Rovers vs Derby Predictions
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Can Blackburn Edge Derby in Their Championship Opener?
Key Stats
Blackburn avoided relegation by just three points last season.
Derby finished second in League One to secure promotion.
Sammie Szmodics scored 27 goals for Blackburn in the last campaign.
The opening match of the Championship season sees Blackburn Rovers host Derby County at Ewood Park on Friday night. This match marks a fresh start for both teams, with Blackburn looking to improve after narrowly avoiding relegation last season, while Derby aims to make a strong return to the Championship following their promotion from League One.
Match Preview
Blackburn Rovers had a tumultuous end to their last campaign, flirting with relegation for much of the second half of the season. Despite a string of disappointing results, a late surge saw them collect 11 points from their final seven matches, securing their place in the Championship by finishing 19th, just three points clear of the drop zone. The addition of key players like defender Danny Batth and playmaker Andreas Weimann has injected optimism into the squad. Pre-season results were mixed, with three wins from six matches, but a solid foundation seems to be in place for John Eustace’s side.
Derby County, on the other hand, are riding high after finishing second in League One last season, earning them promotion. Under the management of Paul Warne, the Rams were exceptional in the latter half of the season, clinching eight wins in their final 11 matches. The summer has seen significant activity in the transfer market, with notable acquisitions including Ben Osborn and Kayden Jackson, both of whom are expected to make an impact. However, their pre-season form has been inconsistent, highlighted by three losses in four games before a confidence-boosting 2-1 win over Real Valladolid.
Team News
Blackburn Rovers are likely to field a similar lineup to the one that faced Stockport County in their final pre-season match. New signings Makhtar Gueye and Yuki Ohashi will vie for the central striker position, while Danny Batth and Andreas Weimann, who didn’t feature in the last game, may start on the bench. Key midfielder Sammie Szmodics remains a crucial player, although transfer speculation may affect his availability.
For Derby County, the lineup may also resemble their last pre-season match, with Sonny Bradley and Jerry Yates pushing for starting spots. Paul Warne might opt for a familiar setup to maintain stability, particularly focusing on a strong defensive performance to counter Blackburn’s attacking threats.
Expected Lineups
Blackburn Rovers: Pears; Brittain, Carter, Hyam, Pickering; Tronstad, Travis; Rankin-Costello, Dolan, Hedges; Gueye
Derby County: Vickers; Nyambe, Nelson, Cashin, Elder; Ozoh, Goudmijn, Osborn; Barkhuizen, Jackson, Mendez-Laing
Analysis
Blackburn’s Strategy and Form
Blackburn’s form last season was inconsistent, but their ability to grind out results in the final stages was crucial to their survival. The team struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, and their attack wasn’t particularly prolific either, averaging 1.3 goals per game. Sammie Szmodics was their standout performer, scoring 27 goals and providing a critical edge in many matches. The new signings, Batth and Weimann, bring much-needed experience and stability to the squad.
The pre-season saw Blackburn experimenting with different formations and personnel. Their defensive solidity will be tested, but with a better midfield and forward setup, they are expected to improve on last season’s performance. The focus will likely be on maintaining possession and creating more goal-scoring opportunities, capitalizing on the skills of Szmodics and the creativity of Weimann.
Derby’s Prospects
Derby’s promotion campaign was built on a solid defensive foundation and an effective attacking strategy. They conceded only 37 goals in 46 matches, showing remarkable defensive discipline. Offensively, they averaged 1.7 goals per game, with a balanced attack that saw contributions from various players. The addition of Osborn and Jackson is expected to bolster their midfield and attacking options, providing more versatility and depth.
Their pre-season form, however, has raised some concerns, especially the three consecutive losses. Warne’s challenge will be to integrate the new signings quickly and find a cohesive team dynamic. Derby’s approach will likely focus on a solid defensive setup, combined with quick counter-attacks to exploit Blackburn’s defensive weaknesses.
Key Battles and Field Dynamics
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Blackburn’s Tronstad and Travis facing off against Derby’s Osborn and Goudmijn. Controlling the midfield will be essential for both teams to dictate the pace of the game. In attack, the duel between Blackburn’s Gueye and Derby’s central defenders, Bradley and Nelson, will be pivotal. Gueye’s physical presence and goal-scoring ability will test Derby’s defensive resilience.
Defensively, Blackburn’s Batth will need to manage Derby’s Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, whose pace and dribbling can create problems. Derby’s attacking thrust will heavily depend on how well they can support Mendez-Laing and Jackson in the final third.
Predictions
Best Bet: Blackburn to Win
Blackburn Rovers enter this match with renewed vigour after narrowly avoiding relegation last season. Their late surge, which saw them accumulate 11 points from the final seven matches, indicated a fighting spirit and resilience that should serve them well in this opener. The key additions of Danny Batth and Andreas Weimann have bolstered their squad, adding much-needed experience and quality in defence and attack.
Playing at Ewood Park will also provide a significant advantage, with the home crowd likely to spur them on. Derby, despite their promotion and strong finish last season, have shown inconsistency in their pre-season matches, which could be exploited by a Blackburn side eager to start the season on a high note. Therefore, a win for Blackburn appears the most likely outcome.
Correct Score Prediction: Blackburn 2-1 Derby County
A 2-1 victory for Blackburn Rovers aligns with the prediction of a home win while acknowledging Derby’s capacity to compete. Blackburn’s defensive record last season was shaky, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, so it’s reasonable to expect Derby to score. However, Blackburn’s attacking improvements, particularly with the presence of Szmodics and the creative potential of Weimann, suggest they will score more than once.
Derby’s defence, although solid last season in League One, may struggle against higher-tier opposition, especially away from home. This balance of defensive vulnerabilities and attacking capabilities from both sides makes a 2-1 scoreline a realistic prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics was Blackburn’s standout performer last season, finishing as their top scorer with 27 goals. His goal-scoring prowess was crucial to Blackburn’s survival, and he remains their most potent attacking threat.
Despite the speculation surrounding his future, if Szmodics plays, his ability to find the net consistently makes him the prime candidate to score. His sharp movements, combined with his knack for being in the right place at the right time, will be a significant threat to Derby’s defence. Given his track record and importance to Blackburn’s attacking play, Szmodics is expected to get on the scoresheet in this match.
Corner Prediction: Total Corners Over 10.5
Both Blackburn Rovers and Derby County have demonstrated tendencies to win numerous corners in their games. Blackburn averaged 5.1 corners per match last season, while Derby’s average was slightly higher at 6.4 per game. With both teams likely to adopt attacking approaches, especially in their season opener, the number of corners is expected to be high.
Blackburn’s home advantage and Derby’s counter-attacking style will likely result in several corner opportunities. Thus, predicting over 10.5 total corners for the match aligns well with the expected flow of the game and the statistical trends from both teams.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Shots on Target – Over 9.5
Given the attacking talent on display and the styles of play anticipated from both teams, predicting over 9.5 total shots on target is a compelling market. Blackburn averaged 4.3 shots on target per game last season, while Derby’s slightly lower average still contributes significantly to this total.
Both teams have strengthened their attacking options during the summer, which should translate to numerous attempts on goal. Blackburn, playing at home, will look to assert dominance, while Derby will aim to counter effectively. The combination of these strategies and the attacking quality should lead to a high number of shots on target, making this market a valuable prediction.
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