Derby County vs Crewe Alexandra predictions ahead of this clash in the FA Cup. Derby County, rallying back from a two-goal deficit to keep their FA Cup aspirations afloat, host Crewe Alexandra at Pride Park for the first-round replay on Tuesday. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
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Match Live Tuesday, 14th November at 7:45 pm In:
Derby County vs Crewe Alexandra Predictions
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Pride Park Showdown: Derby County’s Redemption Quest Against Crewe Alexandra
Key Stats
– Crewe Alexandra: Four wins in the last five League Two matches.
– Derby’s James Collins: Seven goals in the season.
In a rematch brimming with FA Cup drama, Derby County and Crewe Alexandra reconvene at Pride Park for their first-round replay. After salvaging their FA Cup aspirations in a gripping 2-2 draw, Derby County are set to host Crewe Alexandra, bringing an intriguing clash between the League One hosts and their League Two visitors.
Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match
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Best Value Bet Rationale
Derby’s recovery from a two-goal deficit in the first tie against Crewe Alexandra exemplifies their resilience and ability to overturn challenging situations. Furthermore, their consecutive victories, including a convincing 3-0 triumph over Barnsley, underscore their potent attacking prowess and solid defensive setup. This blend of offensive efficiency and defensive solidity is crucial in the FA Cup, where margins often define the outcome.
At Pride Park, Derby have been particularly formidable, maintaining an eight-match unbeaten streak. This run of form, coupled with their historical five-game FA Cup home winning streak against lower-division sides, augurs well for their chances of not just winning, but doing so comfortably.
Crewe Alexandra, on the other hand, despite their commendable efforts in the first encounter and their recent form in League Two, face a daunting task. Their history of early FA Cup eliminations, combined with the psychological impact of conceding a late equaliser in the first match, could play into Derby’s hands. Moreover, Crewe’s last FA Cup replay win against an EFL side dates back over two decades, suggesting a psychological hurdle in such scenarios.
Given these factors, Derby County’s ability to win by more than one goal seems not just plausible but probable. Their attacking flair, defensive resilience, and the advantage of playing on familiar turf make this bet a value pick in this matchup. As always, it’s important to note that odds are subject to change and terms and conditions apply.
Analysis of Derby County: Rising from Adversity
Derby County’s resilience was on full display in the initial encounter, mounting a stunning comeback from two goals down. The Rams, guided by Paul Warne, have shown a blend of tenacity and quality, especially in their recent fixtures, including a commanding 3-0 triumph over Barnsley in League One. This victory not only showcased their offensive prowess but also their dominance at Pride Park, where they have an eight-game unbeaten streak. Players like Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Conor Hourihane, who were instrumental in the comeback, will again be pivotal in driving the team’s offensive thrust.
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Crewe Alexandra: Underdogs with a Bite
Crewe Alexandra, under Lee Bell, might feel a sense of lost opportunity, letting a two-goal lead slip in the closing moments of the first game. Despite this, they have maintained a strong form in League Two, highlighted by their dramatic last-minute win against Notts County. Courtney Baker-Richardson, a crucial figure in their attack, will again be a key player to watch.
Tactical Battle and Key Duels
The match at Pride Park is likely to be a tactical chess game. Derby’s strategy will probably revolve around exploiting their home advantage and maintaining their recent goal-scoring form. Crewe, on the other hand, might adopt a more cautious approach, looking to exploit any gaps on the counter. Key battles in the midfield, where Derby’s Hourihane and Crewe’s Jack Powell could face off, will be crucial in setting the tempo of the match.
Improvements and Strategies
Both teams have areas to improve. Derby County needs to guard against complacency, especially after their near miss in the first game, while Crewe must focus on maintaining their lead, should they get ahead. Both managers have strengths in their tactical approach but will face scrutiny, especially Warne, if Derby fails to capitalise on their home advantage.
Our Take: Derby’s Test of Character
This match is not just a test of Derby’s tactical acumen but also their mental fortitude. A failure to advance past Crewe could invite heavy criticism, especially of Warne’s management. However, their recent form and the advantage of playing at home tilt the odds in their favour.
Predictions Based on Performance
1. Match Outcome: Derby County to Win
Derby County’s recent form, particularly at Pride Park, positions them as favourites for this encounter. Their impressive eight-game unbeaten streak at home is a testament to their solid performances in familiar surroundings. The resilience and character displayed in their comeback during the first tie against Crewe, coupled with their subsequent victories, including the notable 3-0 win over Barnsley, underscore their capacity to secure a win. Crewe Alexandra, while formidable in their league, might find the challenge at Pride Park a step too high, especially given Derby’s momentum and home advantage.
2. Correct Score Prediction: Derby County 3 – 1 Crewe Alexandra
Considering Derby’s attacking flair and Crewe’s potential vulnerabilities, especially in away games, a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Derby appears plausible. Derby has shown a propensity to score multiple goals in recent matches, and their offensive thrust, led by players like James Collins, is expected to break down Crewe’s resistance. Crewe might find the back of the net, considering their scoring record in League Two, but maintaining a solid defence against Derby’s attack will be a significant challenge.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: James Collins to Score
James Collins has been in fine form for Derby, emerging as a key goalscorer. His recent performance, including a brace against Barnsley, places him as a likely candidate to score in this match. Collins’ ability to find space in the box and his finishing prowess make him a constant threat, and against a Crewe defence that has shown some susceptibility, he stands a good chance of adding to his goal tally.
4. Corner Prediction: Derby County to Win More Corners, Over 9 Corners in Total
Derby’s approach to the game, focusing on attacking play, is likely to result in a higher number of corners. Their tendency to push forward and create chances, often resulting in shots being deflected or saved, should lead to more corner opportunities. Given the dynamics of FA Cup matches, where teams strive to seize every scoring opportunity, a total of over 9 corners for both teams combined seems a reasonable expectation. Derby’s offensive style, coupled with Crewe’s efforts to counteract, will contribute to this corner count.
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