bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Palace’s direct threat finally break the Selhurst Park hoodoo against Fulham? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
▾
Celta are in peak form with two straight wins to start the year. Rayo have a catastrophic away record, failing to score in four straight road trips.
▾
Rayo's lack of goals away from home combined with Celta's solid defensive record makes a home win to nil the most likely narrative.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Crystal Palace vs Fulham Predictions and Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Fulham — William Hill Market Snapshot
Current pricing for the New Year’s Day clash at Selhurst Park, with probabilities derived from listed odds.
The market indicates a tightly contested derby, with the home side carrying a marginal advantage in the win probabilities.
Low-scoring outcomes are the primary focus, with defensive consistency making a 1-1 draw the statistical leader.
The market suggests a cagey affair is more likely, with Under 2.5 Goals priced as the probable outcome.
- Selhurst Park wait: Crystal Palace have not beaten Fulham at home since February 2019, a long-running pattern that adds extra edge to this New Year’s Day derby.
- Table-level tension: after 18 matches, Crystal Palace and Fulham both have 26 points, with Palace at 7-5-6 (+1) and Fulham at 8-2-8 (-1), hinting at fine margins.
- Possession contrast: Fulham average 51.2% possession and 83.4% pass success in the league, while Palace sit at 43.4% possession and 77.4% pass success, shaping how each may build attacks.
Offensive Output: Goals Scored Per Match
Seasonal goal-scoring rates highlight a difference in potency between the two London rivals heading into the derby.
With 21 goals in 18 league matches, Palace have maintained a disciplined but relatively low-scoring campaign.
Fulham’s 25 goals across 18 matches reflect a more expansive attacking threat compared to their New Year’s Day hosts.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
The defensive metrics underscore Palace’s preference for structure, conceding fewer goals per game than the visitors.
The Eagles’ defensive record remains a strength, averaging just over one goal conceded per game this season.
Fulham have conceded 26 goals in their 18 fixtures, showing a more vulnerable profile than their mid-table opponents.
Scoring Pivot: Jean-Philippe Mateta
Individual contributions provide context for where the primary goal threat lies for the home side.
Mateta has accounted for one-third of Palace’s total league goals, making him the central figure in their offensive plan.
Wilson remains Fulham’s primary scorer with five goals, supported by four league assists this campaign.
New Year’s Day brings a London derby with a bit of bite at Selhurst Park, as Crystal Palace welcome Fulham in the Premier League. The backdrop is awkward for the hosts: recent results have been a slog, and there’s a stubborn home hoodoo hanging over this fixture too. Palace have not beaten Fulham at Selhurst Park since February 2019, and they go into 2026 trying to stop a winless home run against familiar opposition.
Fulham arrive with their own narrative edge. They beat Palace 2-1 in the reverse league meeting on 7 December 2025, and they’ve just put together back-to-back Premier League wins – 1-0 over Nottingham Forest followed by a 1-0 away victory at West Ham. It’s tidy work, the kind of sequence that makes a derby feel less like a coin-flip and more like a test of whether Palace can impose themselves again.
For Palace, the challenge is to turn the intensity of a home crowd into control of the key zones, rather than the kind of frantic game state that has punished them recently. For Fulham, it’s about staying calm, playing their patterns, and seeing if the moments that have been going their way continue to fall kindly in a noisy stadium.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Palace’s possible starting XI points strongly towards a back three: Henderson; Lemar, Lacroix, Guehi; Clyne, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Pino, Nketiah; Mateta. The balance is interesting. With wing-backs listed in Clyne and Mitchell, and a midfield pairing of Wharton and Hughes, the structure hints at a side that can protect central spaces and still push numbers into the attacking line when the moment is right.
There are also clear signals about where Palace expect their spark. Yéremy Pino appears as one of the two players behind the striker, alongside Eddie Nketiah, with Jean-Philippe Mateta leading the line. Mateta’s role is hard to miss: he has seven Premier League goals, comfortably Palace’s top league scorer, and he’s described as available for the hosts. Nketiah is also described as available, and he’s already got two league goals in limited minutes, which suggests Palace can rotate their forward options within games without completely changing the profile.
Fulham’s possible XI looks like a 4-2-3-1: Leno; Tete, Andersen, Cuenca, Robinson; Lukic, Berge; Wilson, Smith Rowe, Kevin; Jimenez. That gives them a stable double pivot in front of the defence, plus three attacking midfielders who can tilt the pitch. Harry Wilson’s presence matters not just because he’s their leading scorer with five league goals, but because he also has four assists in the Premier League – a blend of end product that can turn a good spell into an actual advantage.
Raúl Jiménez is listed up top, with four league goals and two assists, and Emile Smith Rowe supports from the line behind with three goals. The shape suggests Fulham will look to connect through midfield with short passes, use width, and funnel a lot of their attacking weight down the left side – a stated preference in their playing style.
How the Match Could Be Played
This feels like a meeting of two sides who both have reasons to operate with a touch of caution. Palace are described as playing in their own half and being non-aggressive, yet also strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. Fulham, too, are noted as playing in their own half, but with short passes and width as key pillars. That combination often produces a match that starts with a bit of probing: who can move the opponent first, who can draw a press, and who can win the first “proper” transition.
Palace’s likely 3-4-2-1 shape is built for central access. Their style points include attacking through the middle, attempting through balls often, and using long balls. That doesn’t have to mean hopeful punting; it can mean early diagonals into the channels, quick direct balls into Mateta, and second-phase attacks where Pino and Nketiah jump on loose clearances. With Wharton and Hughes, Palace can try to keep a platform behind the ball, then pick their moments to release runners.
But there’s a tension in Palace’s profile: they’re listed as very strong at creating scoring chances, yet weak at finishing them. In a derby, that can become a psychological tug-of-war. If early chances don’t go in, do they keep their structure, or do they start forcing it?
Fulham’s set-up offers a different kind of control. With Lukic and Berge as a base, they can circulate possession and pull Palace’s block side-to-side. Their strengths include attacking down the wings and creating long-shot opportunities, which fits neatly with a front four that can rotate and arrive on the edge of the box. Their style also includes playing with width and attacking down the left – which naturally points you towards how Antonee Robinson might be used as an outlet, and how Wilson or Smith Rowe might drift into the half-spaces to combine.
The key tactical friction could come out wide. Palace are explicitly weak at defending set pieces, and also weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Fulham, meanwhile, have a profile that includes long-shot creation and wing attacks. If Fulham can trap Palace near the touchline, win free-kicks, and keep recycling attacks, that weakness can show up repeatedly in the same few corridors.
At the other end, Fulham’s weaknesses include defending against through ball attacks and being very weak in aerial duels. That is a loud invitation for Palace to keep Mateta involved. The simplest route is often the most reliable: get the ball into the striker, play off him, and attack the second ball. With Lacroix and Guéhi both offering assists in the league (two each) and Palace comfortable using long balls, the supply line doesn’t have to be delicate to be effective.
It may also become a match of who times their steals best. Both sides are described as strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. In practical terms, that can mean a messy five minutes either side of half-time where the ball keeps changing hands and the game becomes about who lands the punch after the turnover.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
The league baseline supports the idea of a tight contest in the table: after 18 matches, both sides sit on 26 points. Palace’s record is 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses with a goal difference of +1, while Fulham have 8 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses with a goal difference of -1. That measures two mid-table profiles with similar output, but achieved in different ways – Palace drawing more, Fulham winning and losing more.
In possession terms, Fulham’s Premier League average of 51.2% and 83.4% pass success suggests they’re happier building with the ball than Palace, who average 43.4% possession and 77.4% pass success. That matters because it hints at where the game might be played: Fulham can plausibly have longer spells of the ball, while Palace may rely more on direct routes and transition moments.
The goal numbers line up with the “fine margins” feel. Palace have 21 league goals in 18 matches, which works out at 1.17 per match, while Fulham have 25 in 18, or 1.39 per match. At the back, Palace concede 1.11 per match and Fulham 1.44. In other words: Palace’s best argument is control and restraint; Fulham’s is slightly more attacking output with more defensive risk.
Recent match patterns add texture. Palace’s last six matches show 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses, averaging 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded, while Fulham’s last six are 3 wins and 3 losses, with 1.83 scored and 1.83 conceded. It’s not a story of one side flying and the other collapsing; it’s more that Fulham have been landing clean blows in the league lately, while Palace have found the finishing and game management moments harder to come by.
And then there’s the striker lens. Mateta has seven league goals for Palace. Fulham’s Wilson leads them with five, and Jiménez has four plus two assists. If the match becomes a battle of whose “best bits” show up in the right moments, those names are the obvious hinges.
Key “Moments” to Watch
First, the early rhythm. Palace’s home matches lately have included a 0-3 defeat to Manchester City and a 0-1 loss to Tottenham, and the narrative around them includes a winless home run. If they start cautiously, the stadium can get restless; if they start too hot, Fulham’s ability to steal the ball and play into space can bite. The opening quarter-hour could decide whether this becomes a controlled derby or a frantic one.
Second, the aerial and direct battle around Mateta. Fulham are flagged as very weak in aerial duels, and Palace have a clear focal point with a seven-goal striker. If Palace can turn attacks into repeated balls into the box and second phases, it asks constant questions of Fulham’s centre-backs and their midfield screen.
Third, the wide patterns and the foul line. Palace are listed as weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas and weak at defending set pieces. Fulham’s wing play and long-shot creation can turn those weaknesses into repeatable pressure: corners, free-kicks, and edge-of-box situations where one clean strike can change the day.
Fourth, the “one goal changes everything” effect. Fulham have kept successive clean sheets in the league, and they’ve won their last two Premier League games 1-0. That kind of sequence often sharpens a team’s belief in their defensive structure. For Palace, it makes the first big chance feel twice as important – because if you don’t take it, you may not get a second.
What could go wrong with this read? Derbies have a habit of ripping up neat tactical scripts. An early error, a scrappy deflection, or a sudden red-hot spell from a player who hasn’t featured much recently can flip control on its head. And if both sides’ shared strength at stealing the ball turns the match into a turnover-fest, the clean patterns you expect from either shape can disappear in the noise.
Best Bet for Crystal Palace vs Fulham
[bt4y_article_veil]
Both Teams to Score – No
Rationale
The dynamic for this London derby suggests a game where finding the net could be a significant struggle for at least one side. A look at the tactical setups and recent results points toward a cautious encounter. Fulham arrive at Selhurst Park having established a remarkable defensive platform in their travels. They have managed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last four away matches against Crystal Palace across all competitions. This historical defensive dominance is backed up by their current form, as they have secured back-to-back 1-0 victories in the Premier League against Nottingham Forest and West Ham. Such results demonstrate a team that is currently prioritising defensive solidity and game management over expansive, high-scoring football.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are enduring a difficult period in front of goal, particularly at home. They have failed to score in any of their last four home games against Fulham, a sequence that highlights a specific tactical struggle when facing the Cottagers in south London. Their broader recent home form reinforces this concern, with the team failing to find the back of the net in three of their last four league matches at Selhurst Park, including recent 1-0 defeats to Tottenham and a 3-0 loss to Manchester City. While they possess a focal point in Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has seven league goals, the team is described as having a weakness in finishing the scoring chances they create.
When these two sides meet, the patterns often become predictable. Fulham’s preference for playing in their own half with short passes and width allows them to control the tempo, while Palace’s non-aggressive style in their own half often leads to lower-event matches. With both teams level on 26 points and essentially mirror-images in the mid-table standings, the fear of losing a New Year’s Day derby may outweigh the ambition to attack. Given that Palace have averaged just 1.17 goals per match this season and Fulham have kept successive clean sheets, it is highly probable that at least one of these sides will fail to score.
What could go wrong?
A primary risk to this selection is the individual quality of players like Harry Wilson, who has been directly involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League games, or Mateta’s aerial dominance against a Fulham side that is statistically very weak in aerial duels. If an early goal is conceded through a set-piece or a defensive error—areas where Palace are noted to be weak—the game could be forced to open up, leading to a more frantic and high-scoring exchange than the recent historical data suggests.
Correct Score Lean: Crystal Palace 0-1 Fulham
Rationale
This scoreline aligns with the clear trend of Fulham’s recent league performances and their historical superiority at this venue. Fulham have won their last two Premier League fixtures by a 1-0 margin, showing a disciplined ability to protect a lead. Furthermore, they have a history of shutting out the Eagles at Selhurst Park, having not conceded a goal in their last four visits. Given Palace’s current three-match losing streak in the league and their failure to score in several recent home outings, a narrow away win built on defensive organisation appears the most likely outcome.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
