Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa predictions for this Premier League clash. Crystal Palace aim for a top-half finish as they host Champions League-bound Aston Villa at Selhurst Park on the final day. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Premier League | Gameweek 38 – May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK at Selhurst Park
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Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Predictions
Key Stats
– Crystal Palace have dropped just two points in their last six games.
– Aston Villa have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.
– Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored in each of his last six outings at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace’s Final Push: Can the Eagles Overcome Aston Villa and Secure a Top-Half Finish?
Crystal Palace, riding a wave of impressive performances, are set to host Aston Villa at Selhurst Park in a crucial Premier League season finale. With a top-half finish within reach, the Eagles are keen to continue their hot streak under the guidance of Oliver Glasner. Meanwhile, Aston Villa, having secured Champions League qualification, will aim to end their campaign on a high note despite recent inconsistencies.
Match Preview
Crystal Palace have enjoyed a remarkable resurgence since the arrival of Oliver Glasner, who has revitalised the team’s form and style of play. The Eagles have won five of their last six matches, including a commanding 3-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Key players like Michael Olise, Jean-Philippe Mateta, and Eberechi Eze have been instrumental, with Mateta particularly standing out by scoring five goals in recent home games. With 16 points from their last six matches, Palace are poised to cap off their season with another win, potentially finishing in the top half if other results go their way.
Aston Villa, on the other hand, have already secured a spot in next season’s Champions League, marking a significant achievement for Unai Emery’s side. However, their form has dipped lately, with a five-game winless streak in the league and an early exit from the Europa Conference League. Despite these setbacks, Villa remain a formidable opponent, especially with Ollie Watkins in excellent form, having scored 19 goals this season. Emery’s tactical acumen has transformed Villa into a competitive side, but maintaining focus will be crucial in their final match against a resurgent Palace.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Crystal Palace Team News: Crystal Palace will miss Will Hughes due to a bruised bone, and Naouirou Ahamada is suspended following his recent red card. However, Jefferson Lerma’s return bolsters their midfield options.
Expected Crystal Palace Lineup: Henderson; Clyne, Andersen, Richards; Munoz, Lerma, Wharton, Mitchell; Olise, Eze, Mateta.
Aston Villa Team News: Aston Villa are without Nicolo Zaniolo, who is sidelined until August with a foot injury. Despite his error against Liverpool, Emiliano Martinez will retain his spot in goal.
Expected Aston Villa Lineup: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Bailey, Tielemans, Luiz, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins.
Key Tactical Insights and Gameplay Predictions
Crystal Palace’s Strategy and Strengths: Under Glasner, Crystal Palace have become a dynamic and attacking team, particularly strong at Selhurst Park. Their recent form, scoring at least twice in seven of their last nine home matches, highlights their offensive prowess. Mateta’s resurgence as a lethal forward, supported by creative midfielders like Olise and Eze, makes them a significant threat. Defensively, Palace have been solid, and their ability to counter-attack efficiently could exploit Villa’s vulnerabilities.
Aston Villa’s Approach and Weaknesses: Aston Villa have shown tactical versatility under Emery, often relying on swift transitions and set-piece opportunities. Watkins’ form is crucial, and Villa’s midfield, led by Douglas Luiz and John McGinn, will look to control the game’s tempo. However, their recent defensive lapses and the absence of Zaniolo could be potential weaknesses. Villa’s away form has also been less impressive, which might hinder their chances against an in-form Palace side.
Areas Where the Match Could Be Decided
The midfield battle will be pivotal, with Palace’s Lerma and Wharton up against Villa’s Luiz and McGinn. This duel could dictate the game’s flow, with possession and pressing being key factors. Additionally, the performance of full-backs Munoz and Mitchell for Palace and Digne and Konsa for Villa will be critical in both defensive solidity and attacking support.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Managers
Oliver Glasner has reinvigorated Crystal Palace with his tactical acumen, focusing on high pressing and quick transitions. His ability to motivate and extract the best from players like Mateta and Eze has been commendable. However, his lack of experience in the Premier League might be seen as a drawback in long-term consistency.
Unai Emery, known for his European expertise, has transformed Aston Villa into a competitive side capable of challenging for top honours. His strategic flexibility and ability to rotate the squad effectively have been crucial. Yet, his recent struggles to maintain consistent form and questionable decisions in critical matches could be areas for improvement.
Expected Goals Analysis
Crystal Palace have an average of 1.4 goals per game, with a strong home record recently. Their ability to create and convert big chances has been a hallmark of their resurgence. Conversely, Villa’s 2.1 goals per game indicate a potent attack, but their defensive frailties, conceding 1.5 goals per game, reveal a susceptibility that Palace can exploit.
Predictions and Betting Angles
Best Bet Prediction: Crystal Palace to Win
Crystal Palace are riding a wave of excellent form as they head into their final game of the season. Under the stewardship of Oliver Glasner, the Eagles have been revitalised, winning five out of their last six matches. Their recent home form is particularly impressive, with comprehensive victories over West Ham, Newcastle, and Manchester United.
This winning streak is underpinned by a solid defence and a potent attack, with Jean-Philippe Mateta, Michael Olise, and Eberechi Eze all in fine form. Aston Villa, despite securing Champions League football, have been inconsistent lately, failing to win any of their last five league matches. With nothing more to play for and potential fatigue setting in after a long season, Villa might not match Palace’s intensity and desire. Hence, a win for Crystal Palace appears to be the best bet.
Correct Score Prediction: Crystal Palace 3-1 Aston Villa
Aligning with the best bet prediction, a 3-1 scoreline seems a likely outcome. Crystal Palace have shown their attacking capabilities, scoring at least twice in seven of their last nine home matches. Jean-Philippe Mateta, in particular, has been prolific at Selhurst Park, and his form suggests he will continue to be a key threat.
Aston Villa’s defence has been leaky, conceding 1.5 goals per game on average, and their recent form suggests they might struggle to contain Palace’s vibrant attack. While Villa possess attacking threats like Ollie Watkins, who could find the net, their defensive frailties combined with Palace’s offensive prowess make a 3-1 scoreline a reasonable prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Jean-Philippe Mateta to Score
Jean-Philippe Mateta has been a revelation for Crystal Palace, particularly under Oliver Glasner’s management. He has scored in each of his last six home appearances, showcasing his ability to find the back of the net consistently. His positioning, strength, and finishing skills make him a constant threat to defences.
Aston Villa, despite their strong season, have shown defensive vulnerabilities, and Mateta’s current form suggests he will capitalise on any lapses. Given his recent scoring spree and Palace’s attacking style, Mateta is highly likely to score at least once in this fixture.
Corner Prediction: Crystal Palace to Win More Corners
While Aston Villa average more corners per game (6.1) compared to Crystal Palace (4.8), the context of this match could see Palace winning more corners. Palace are expected to dominate possession and create more attacking opportunities, especially given their recent home performances. Their wide play, involving players like Olise and Eze, often results in corners.
Villa, on the other hand, might adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on counter-attacks rather than sustained pressure. Therefore, Palace’s offensive thrust and Villa’s potential defensive setup could lead to the home side winning the corner count.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 5.5 for Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have been prolific in their attacking endeavours, averaging 4.3 shots on target per game. Their recent home form suggests they are capable of surpassing this average, particularly against a Villa side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities. With creative midfielders like Olise and Eze providing service to the forwards, Palace are likely to test Emiliano Martinez frequently.
Villa’s defensive lapses and Palace’s aggressive attacking approach under Glasner support the expectation of more than 5.5 shots on target for the home team. This prediction aligns with Palace’s recent trend of high shot counts in home fixtures and Villa’s propensity to allow scoring opportunities.
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