Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense predictions for their meeting in the Brasileiro. Cruzeiro aim to leapfrog Athletico Paranaense in the Brasileiro Serie A table when they meet at Mineirao on Wednesday. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jun 26, 2024 at 11pm UK at Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto
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Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense Predictions
Can Cruzeiro Leverage Home Advantage to Overcome Athletico Paranaense?
Key Stats
– Cruzeiro have maintained a perfect home record this season.
– Athletico Paranaense have drawn their last three matches.
– Gabriel Veron has been involved in three goals for Cruzeiro this season.
Cruzeiro will be looking to leap ahead of Athletico Paranaense in the Brasileiro Serie A standings when the two sides face off at the Mineirao on Wednesday. With just two points and three places separating the teams, this match is crucial for both as they aim to climb higher in the league table.
Cruzeiro’s Recent Form and Challenges
Cruzeiro come into this match after a heavy 4-1 defeat to Bahia, which marked the first time they conceded four goals in a league game this season. Despite Gabriel Veron’s early strike, Cruzeiro’s fortunes turned sour following Marlon’s red card in the 70th minute, leading to a late collapse where they conceded three goals in the final 20 minutes. This defeat dropped them to eighth place with 17 points from 10 matches.
Despite this setback, Cruzeiro have been formidable at home, maintaining a perfect record at the Mineirao with four wins from four games. This impressive home form is a stark contrast to their overall inconsistency, and they will be looking to leverage this strength against Athletico PR.
Athletico Paranaense’s Inconsistent Away Form
Athletico Paranaense have experienced a series of mixed results, currently sitting fifth in the table with 19 points from 11 matches. Their latest outing saw them draw 1-1 with Corinthians, a result that extended their unbeaten run to four matches, though three of those were draws.
Despite being undefeated in their last four games, Athletico PR’s away form has been less convincing, with just one win in five away matches. This inconsistency on the road could be a significant hurdle as they face a strong home side like Cruzeiro.
Team News and Tactical Approaches
For Cruzeiro, the absence of Jose Cifuentes due to international duty, along with the suspended Marlon and the injured Rafael Silva and Juan Dinenno, will necessitate some adjustments. The likely starting lineup features Anderson in goal, with a defensive line of William, Ivaldo, Marcelo, and Vilalba. The midfield is expected to include Pereira, Silva, Ramiro, and Romero, supporting forwards Veron and Robert.
Athletico PR will miss Bento and Agustin Canobbio, who are also on international duty. Additionally, defensive midfielder Felipinho is doubtful due to illness. Their probable lineup includes Linck in goal, with defenders Madson, Rocha, Heleno, and Esquivel. The midfield will feature Erick and Fernandinho, while Nikao, Christian, and Cuello will support forward Mastriani.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be critical, with Cruzeiro’s Romero and Pereira facing Athletico’s Fernandinho and Erick. This contest will likely determine the game’s tempo and control of possession. Additionally, the duel between Cruzeiro’s Veron and Athletico’s Heleno will be key, as Veron’s pace and creativity could be decisive in breaking down Athletico’s defence.
Criticism of Cruzeiro’s Strategy and Management
Cruzeiro’s recent tactical approach has shown significant flaws, particularly in their defensive setup. Fernando Seabra’s inability to instil a robust defensive structure has cost them dearly, especially in matches where they failed to maintain discipline and focus. The team’s over-reliance on individual brilliance rather than cohesive play has also been a noticeable shortcoming. This lack of strategic depth and defensive stability has been a major issue, highlighting the need for a more balanced and well-drilled approach.
Expected Goals Analysis
Cruzeiro’s expected goals (xG) metrics indicate that they have underperformed defensively, conceding more than their xG suggests they should. Their attacking output, while decent, has been hampered by defensive lapses. On the other hand, Athletico PR’s xG reflects a more consistent but somewhat conservative approach, with their defensive xG aligning closely with their actual goals conceded, showing a more structured defensive play.
Gameplay Predictions
Given their respective forms, Cruzeiro are likely to adopt an aggressive approach, aiming to capitalise on their home advantage and Athletico PR’s shaky away form. Athletico, meanwhile, will likely focus on a compact defensive setup, looking to hit Cruzeiro on the counter-attack and exploit any defensive errors.
Predictions
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score
Considering both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and their attacking capabilities, the best bet is that both teams will score. Cruzeiro have scored in each of their home games, and Athletico PR have shown they can find the net on the road.
Correct Score Prediction: Cruzeiro 2-1 Athletico Paranaense
A 2-1 victory for Cruzeiro seems likely given their strong home record and Athletico PR’s inconsistency away. Despite defensive concerns, Cruzeiro’s home form and attacking prowess should see them edge this match.
Goalscorer Prediction: Gabriel Veron to Score
Gabriel Veron has been a key player for Cruzeiro, and his ability to find the net, especially at home, makes him a strong candidate to score. His pace and finishing skills will be crucial against Athletico’s defence.
Corner Prediction: Over 10.5 Corners in the Match
With both teams averaging a high number of corners per game, predicting over 10.5 corners is a strong market angle. Cruzeiro and Athletico PR’s attacking styles and defensive setups contribute to frequent corner scenarios.
Innovative Market Prediction: Over 4.5 Shots on Target for Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro’s attacking statistics suggest they will have multiple attempts on goal. Given their average of 4.2 shots on target per game, betting on over 4.5 shots on target is a viable market.
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