Croatia vs Albania Predictions

Croatia vs Albania predictions for this Euro 2024 fixture. Croatia and Albania, trailing in Group B, face a must-win match in Hamburg on Wednesday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 19, 2024 at 2pm UK at Volksparkstadion

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Croatia vs Albania Predictions

Can Croatia’s Experience Outweigh Albania’s Resilience in Euro 2024?

As Croatia and Albania prepare to clash in Hamburg, both teams find themselves in a precarious position in Group B of Euro 2024. Following defeats in their opening matches, both nations must secure points to keep their knockout stage hopes alive.

Croatia’s European Championship Journey

Despite high expectations, Croatia began their Euro 2024 campaign with a disappointing 3-0 loss to Spain. The defeat was particularly humbling, as the Croatians were outclassed by a Spanish side that found the net thrice before half-time. Although Croatia managed 16 shots and posted an expected goals (xG) total of 2.38, their inefficiency in front of goal, highlighted by a missed penalty from Bruno Petkovic, proved costly.

Zlatko Dalic, Croatia’s head coach, has led his team through numerous major tournaments with notable success. However, this loss has added to a worrying trend of three defeats in their last five competitive fixtures. Croatia’s form has been patchy, marked by losses to Turkey and Wales in qualifying. Historically, Croatia have avoided consecutive losses in European Championship finals since 1996, a trend they will aim to maintain against Albania.

Albania’s Fight for Recognition

Albania’s Euro 2024 adventure marks only their second appearance in the tournament since independence, their previous showing coming in the last three editions. Their opening match against Italy saw a stunning start with Nedim Bajrami scoring the fastest goal in European Championship history after just 23 seconds. However, their early lead was short-lived as Italy quickly overturned the deficit, leading to a 2-1 defeat for Albania.

Despite their limited experience on this stage, Albania’s recent form has shown promise. Before their defeat to Italy, Sylvinho’s side enjoyed a seven-game unbeaten run in competitive matches, a streak that included a draw against Poland and victories over Czech Republic and other formidable teams. The challenge ahead is substantial, as they face Croatia and Spain in their remaining group fixtures.

Team News and Expected Lineups

Croatia are expected to make a few changes following their sluggish start. Josko Gvardiol might return to central defence, replacing Marin Pongracic, while Borna Sosa could come in at left-back. There is also speculation about Marcelo Brozovic being dropped in favour of Luka Sucic or Mario Pasalic in midfield. The forward line is likely to remain unchanged, with Ivan Perisic still regaining full fitness.

Croatia’s predicted lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Sucic, Kovacic; Majer, Budimir, Kramaric

Albania face injury concerns with forward Jasir Asani, who is doubtful due to an ankle issue. Arber Hoxha, born in Germany and currently playing for Dinamo Zagreb, may take Asani’s place. Armando Broja or Rey Manaj will lead the attack, with support from Nedim Bajrami, who has been in excellent form.

Albania’s predicted lineup: Strakosha; Hysaj, Ajeti, Djimsiti, Mitaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Laci, Bajrami, Hoxha; Broja

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Croatia’s xG of 2.38 against Spain highlights their ability to create scoring opportunities, even if they failed to convert. Their 16 shots, with five on target, reflect a team that can dominate offensively but needs to improve finishing. Defensively, conceding three goals points to vulnerabilities that Albania will seek to exploit.

Albania, with an xG reflecting their lone goal against Italy, demonstrated efficiency but lacked overall offensive output, managing just eight shots with one on target. Their defensive resilience will be crucial against a Croatian side known for tactical flexibility and experience.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The midfield battle will be pivotal, with Croatia’s experienced trio of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and potentially Luka Sucic expected to control possession and dictate play. Albania’s midfield, led by Kristjan Asllani and Ylber Ramadani, will need to disrupt Croatia’s rhythm and supply balls to their forwards effectively.

A crucial duel will be between Croatia’s Josko Gvardiol and Albania’s Armando Broja. Gvardiol’s defensive acumen against Broja’s physicality and pace could be decisive in either team gaining the upper hand.

Tactical Gameplay

Croatia will likely adopt a possession-based approach, leveraging their midfield strength to control the game. Their ability to switch play and exploit flanks will test Albania’s defensive organisation. Albania, on the other hand, may opt for a more counter-attacking strategy, utilising the pace of Broja and the creativity of Bajrami to catch Croatia off guard.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Croatia’s approach under Zlatko Dalic has consistently revolved around a possession-based, methodical build-up play. They utilise the vast experience and technical prowess of their midfield trio—Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozovic—to control the game. This strategy was evident against Spain, where Croatia maintained 53% possession and managed 16 shots. However, their inability to convert chances into goals proved costly. In defence, the anticipated return of Josko Gvardiol should bolster their backline, which struggled against Spain’s swift counter-attacks.

Albania, managed by Sylvinho, employed a more direct and counter-attacking style against Italy. Their goal within 23 seconds, the fastest in European Championship history, was a result of quick thinking and aggressive pressing. However, their defence, led by Berat Djimsiti, was breached twice within 16 minutes, highlighting vulnerabilities. Albania’s reliance on long balls and swift counters, primarily through Armando Broja and Nedim Bajrami, aims to exploit any defensive lapses from their opponents.

Individual Performances of Key Players

For Croatia, Luka Modric remains the linchpin. His ability to dictate the tempo and create scoring opportunities is unparalleled. Despite the team’s overall poor performance, Modric’s vision and passing accuracy stood out. Andrej Kramaric also showed promise, consistently getting into dangerous positions, though he lacked the finishing touch against Spain.

Albania’s standout performer, Nedim Bajrami, not only scored a sensational goal but also demonstrated his capability to influence the game significantly. His agility and creativity make him a constant threat. Armando Broja, while isolated at times, showed flashes of his potential to trouble defences with his pace and strength.

Managerial Impact

Zlatko Dalic’s tenure has seen Croatia achieve significant success, but recent performances raise questions about his tactical adaptability. The decision to reprimand Bruno Petkovic publicly for the missed penalty could affect squad morale. Dalic’s reliance on experienced players like Modric and Perisic, while beneficial, sometimes hinders the introduction of younger talents who could provide a necessary spark.

Sylvinho, on the other hand, has instilled a sense of resilience in Albania. His tactical approach, though pragmatic, often leaves the team vulnerable to sustained pressure. The decision to leave out Sokol Cikalleshi, a regular during qualifying, and promote younger talents reflects a long-term vision but may compromise immediate results.

Expected Goals Analysis

Croatia’s xG of 2.38 against Spain underscores their ability to create high-quality chances. Their 16 shots, with five on target, indicate a proactive offensive strategy. However, their finishing needs improvement. Defensively, conceding three goals reflects issues that Gvardiol’s return might address.

Albania’s xG against Italy was lower, mirroring their limited offensive output with just one shot on target. Their strategy heavily relies on capitalising on opponents’ mistakes, which resulted in Bajrami’s early goal. Defensively, their high number of interceptions and clearances shows a reactive, containment approach.

Tactical and Performance Comparison

Tactically, Croatia’s possession-based play contrasts sharply with Albania’s counter-attacking style. Croatia’s strength lies in their midfield control and ability to create chances, though their defensive lapses are concerning. Albania’s strengths are their quick transitions and pressing, but they struggle to maintain possession and create sustained attacks.

Player-wise, Croatia’s Modric, Kovacic, and Brozovic offer a blend of experience and technical skills, while Kramaric and Perisic provide offensive firepower. Albania relies on the creativity of Bajrami and the physicality of Broja, though their supporting cast lacks the same level of influence.

Suggestions for Improvement

Croatia must improve their conversion rate. Their high xG suggests they create enough chances, but finishing has been subpar. Defensively, ensuring Gvardiol’s presence and organising their backline to handle quick counters is crucial.

Albania should focus on improving their possession play. While their counter-attacks are effective, maintaining the ball longer could relieve defensive pressure. Strengthening their midfield to support both defence and attack will be vital.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Croatia’s strengths are their midfield control and experience. However, their reliance on veteran players could be a double-edged sword, limiting dynamism and speed. Their defensive organisation needs refining to avoid lapses seen against Spain.

Albania’s strengths are their resilience and ability to press aggressively. Their weakness lies in maintaining possession and the gap between defence and attack, which often isolates their forwards.

Controversial Critique

While Zlatko Dalic has achieved considerable success, his conservative approach and over-reliance on veterans can be criticised. The public reprimand of Petkovic for a missed penalty highlights potential man-management issues. Fresh talent like Luka Sucic and Mario Pasalic should be given more opportunities to revitalise the team.

Sylvinho’s approach, while commendable for instilling resilience, often results in a reactive rather than proactive strategy. His decision to exclude experienced players in favour of younger prospects could backfire, especially in high-stakes matches where experience is invaluable.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Albania +2 to win

Albania’s resilience and ability to stay competitive make them an appealing bet with a +2 handicap. Their narrow 2-1 loss to Italy, despite early domination by the Azzurri, shows they can keep games tight. Croatia, though stronger on paper, have struggled to convert opportunities into goals, as seen in their 3-0 defeat to Spain despite having a higher xG.

Albania’s defensive structure and willingness to fight for every ball could frustrate Croatia’s forwards. Additionally, Albania’s record of keeping games close in recent matches suggests they are unlikely to suffer a heavy defeat. This bet provides a cushion against a potential Croatian win by a single goal margin or even a draw.

2. Correct Score: Croatia 2-1 Albania

A 2-1 scoreline in favour of Croatia aligns well with both teams’ recent performances and statistics. Croatia’s ability to create chances, coupled with Albania’s occasional defensive lapses, points towards a game where Croatia might edge ahead. Croatia have been inconsistent in their finishing, as evidenced by their xG of 2.38 against Spain without scoring.

However, their offensive capabilities are undeniable. Albania, on the other hand, showed they can find the net even against strong opposition, as demonstrated by Bajrami’s early goal against Italy. Therefore, it’s reasonable to predict Albania will score, but Croatia’s superior experience and technical ability should see them secure a narrow victory.

3. Goalscorer: Ivan Perisic

Ivan Perisic stands out as a prime candidate to score given his track record and recent form. Even though he started on the bench against Spain, he made a significant impact when he came on, registering three shots with one on target.

As he regains full fitness, he is likely to be more involved from the start against Albania. His ability to find space and his prowess in front of goal make him a constant threat. Moreover, Perisic has a knack for scoring in crucial matches, and his experience will be invaluable in breaking down a potentially stubborn Albanian defence.

4. Corners Prediction

Croatia’s attacking play often results in a higher number of corners, which was an anomaly against Spain when they failed to win any. Typically, Croatia’s offensive strategies involve wide play and crossing, leading to corners.

With players like Modric orchestrating the midfield, Croatia are expected to dominate possession and create numerous attacking opportunities, likely resulting in more corners. Albania’s defensive posture, expected to be deeper and more reactive, will likely lead to them conceding multiple corners as they attempt to block Croatian advances. Therefore, predicting Croatia to win the corner count, with a total match corners tally of 8-10, seems reasonable.

5. Shots on Target: Andrej Kramaric

Andrej Kramaric is a reliable option for shots on target due to his positioning and shooting accuracy. Given Croatia’s likely dominance in possession and the quality of their midfield supply line, Kramaric should find himself in several goal-scoring positions.

His sharpness in the box and ability to take shots under pressure make him a strong candidate for having at least one shot on target. Considering Albania’s defensive approach, Kramaric will be essential in breaking through their lines and testing the goalkeeper regularly.

6. Yellow Card: Kristjan Asllani

Kristjan Asllani is a likely candidate for a yellow card due to his role in Albania’s midfield. Asllani’s responsibilities include breaking up opposition plays and providing defensive cover, which often results in committing fouls. Against a technically proficient Croatian midfield, Asllani will be under considerable pressure to disrupt their rhythm.

His aggressive style and the necessity to intervene in potentially dangerous situations make him a prime candidate for receiving a booking. His involvement in defensive duels and challenges will likely attract the referee’s attention, leading to a yellow card.

7. Assist: Luka Modric

Luka Modric’s vision and passing accuracy make him a prime candidate for providing an assist. As the orchestrator of Croatia’s midfield, Modric is pivotal in creating goal-scoring opportunities.

His ability to deliver precise passes, whether through balls or crosses, is unmatched. Modric’s role will be crucial in breaking down Albania’s defensive lines, and with forwards like Kramaric and Perisic to aim for, an assist seems highly probable. His experience and understanding of the game allow him to exploit spaces effectively, setting up his teammates in dangerous positions.

8. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Goal – Croatia

Croatia’s offensive statistics and playing style suggest they will dominate in terms of shots on goal. Against Spain, Croatia managed 16 shots, indicating their propensity to create numerous chances. Even though they struggled to convert these into goals, the volume of shots taken remains significant.

Against Albania, who are expected to adopt a more defensive approach, Croatia will likely control the game, resulting in a high number of attempts on goal. Betting on Croatia to have over 10 shots on goal aligns with their attacking trends and the expected flow of the match.

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