Criciuma vs Fluminense predictions, betting tips and match previews for this Brazilian Serie A clash. Criciuma aim to bounce back from defeat against struggling Fluminense at Estadio Heriberto Hulse on Friday. Fluminense seek their second win. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jul 12, 2024 at 12am UK at Estadio Heriberto Hulse
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Criciuma vs Fluminense Predictions
Can Criciuma Leverage Home Advantage Against a Struggling Fluminense?
Key Stats
– Criciuma have averaged 1.5 goals per game this season.
– Fluminense have failed to win any of their last 12 matches.
– Matheusinho has scored four goals in the current campaign.
Criciuma are poised to host Fluminense at Estadio Heriberto Hulse this Friday, aiming to leverage their home advantage against a team that has had a challenging season. Fluminense, currently languishing at the bottom of the Brasileiro Serie A, are desperate for a change in fortune as they seek their second win of the season.
Recent Performances and Key Players
Criciuma ended a brief winless streak with a victory over Cruzeiro but failed to build on that success, falling 2-1 to Vitoria in their most recent match. This defeat places Criciuma 14th in the league with 16 points from 13 games. Despite this setback, their home form remains a strong point, having gone unbeaten in their last four home matches, with two wins and two draws. Claudio Tencati’s squad will look to their reliable home performance to climb back up the table and possibly reach the Copa Sudamericana spots.
Fluminense, on the other hand, have endured a disastrous season. After their Copa Libertadores triumph last year, they have struggled to replicate that form, sitting at the bottom of the standings. Their last win came in gameweek three, and they are currently on a 12-match winless run in the league. Mano Menezes, recently appointed to replace the sacked Fernando Diniz, has a daunting task ahead. His debut saw Fluminense earn a draw against Internacional, breaking a six-match losing streak, but they were unable to maintain momentum, losing to Fortaleza in their subsequent match.
Team News and Lineups
Criciuma will be without Felipe Vizeu, Jonathan Lemos, and Tobias Figueiredo due to injuries. However, Allano returns from suspension, and Wilker Angel could feature after the Copa America. The expected lineup includes Gustavo; Claudinho, Maia, Figueiredo, Trauco; Barreto, Ronald, Matheusinho, Hermes; Calke, and Bolasie, suggesting a balanced setup with a mix of defensive resilience and attacking potential.
Fluminense will miss Jhon Arias, who is on international duty, and several injured players, including German Cano, Lele, Isaac, Andre, and others. Their likely starting XI is Fabio; Xavier, Carlos, Santos, Guga; Martinelli, Gomes, Ganso; Cano, Keno, and Andre, which reflects their need to strengthen their defence while hoping for attacking breakthroughs from Ganso and Keno.
Expected Goals Averages and Gameplay Strategies
Criciuma have averaged 1.5 goals per game, relying on a solid home record to maintain their form. They have shown a capability to convert chances with consistent attacking play, evident from their 4.9 shots on target per game. Defensively, they concede 1.6 goals per game, which indicates some vulnerability, especially against stronger opponents.
Fluminense, however, have struggled significantly, averaging just 0.7 goals per game while conceding 1.5. Their lack of firepower is evident from their low shot count, and they have found it challenging to maintain defensive solidity, particularly in away matches.
In terms of gameplay, Criciuma are expected to dominate possession and create more chances, leveraging their home advantage. Fluminense might adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on counter-attacks and set-pieces to find any opportunities to score.
Key Duels and Areas of the Field
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Criciuma’s Matheusinho and Barreto facing off against Fluminense’s Martinelli and Gomes. The performance of Criciuma’s wing-backs, Claudinho and Trauco, in both defence and supporting attacks will be pivotal. For Fluminense, Ganso’s creativity and Keno’s pace could be the keys to unlocking Criciuma’s defence.
Managerial Analysis and Tactical Critiques
Claudio Tencati has managed to extract commendable performances from his Criciuma side, especially at home. His tactical decisions have generally been effective, allowing the team to punch above their weight. In contrast, Mano Menezes faces significant challenges at Fluminense. Despite his experience, the team’s continued poor form raises questions about his ability to turn things around. His tactical rigidity and inability to inspire a struggling squad have been glaring issues.
Analysis of Game Dynamics and Areas of Improvement
Criciuma should focus on maintaining their solid home form, ensuring defensive stability while capitalising on their offensive opportunities. Their midfield needs to control the tempo and distribution effectively to prevent Fluminense from gaining any foothold in the game.
Fluminense, conversely, need drastic improvements in both defence and attack. Mano Menezes must address their tactical issues, particularly their defensive frailties and lack of creativity in the final third. A more flexible approach, adapting to the flow of the game, could benefit them.
Critique of Fluminense’s Managerial Approach
Mano Menezes has struggled to galvanise a team bereft of confidence. His tactical choices often appear outdated, lacking the adaptability required in modern football. Fluminense’s defensive woes and ineffectiveness upfront reflect poorly on his management, highlighting a need for a fresh strategic perspective.
Predictions
Best Bet: Criciuma to Win to Nil
Given Criciuma’s strong home record and Fluminense’s inability to score in away matches, a win for Criciuma without conceding seems the most likely outcome. Their defensive organisation and recent form at Estadio Heriberto Hulse support this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Criciuma 2-0 Fluminense
Aligning with the best bet, a 2-0 scoreline reflects Criciuma’s ability to score while maintaining a clean sheet. This prediction considers their attacking efficiency and Fluminense’s lack of offensive threat.
Goalscorer Prediction: Matheusinho to Score Anytime
Matheusinho has been a consistent performer for Criciuma, with four goals this season. His role in the team’s attacking setup makes him a strong candidate to find the net against Fluminense.
Corner Prediction: Total Corners Over 9.5
Both teams have shown tendencies to win and concede corners. Criciuma average 3.6 corners per game, while Fluminense average 4.3. Given the expected dynamics of the game, an over 9.5 corners market seems a viable bet.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target – Criciuma Over 5.5
Criciuma have averaged 4.9 shots on target per game. Against a struggling Fluminense defence, they are likely to exceed this average, making an over 5.5 shots on target market an interesting and plausible bet.
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