Columbus Crew vs Toronto Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews for this MLS tie. The Columbus Crew host Toronto at Lower.com Field on Saturday, with both MLS sides currently heading in opposite directions. Read on for our free predictions and tips.
Major League Soccer | Jul 7, 2024 at 12.30am UK at Lower.com Field
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Columbus Crew vs Toronto Predictions
Will Columbus Continue Their Home Dominance Against Struggling Toronto?
Key Stats
– Columbus Crew have scored 2 or more goals in 12 of their past 20 matches.
– Toronto FC have conceded 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
– Cucho Hernández has been directly involved in 15 goals this season.
In what promises to be an intriguing Major League Soccer encounter, Columbus Crew are set to host Toronto FC at Lower.com Field. Columbus are coming off a strong run of form, while Toronto are in the midst of a difficult period. This clash will be crucial for both teams, albeit for different reasons, with Columbus looking to maintain their momentum and Toronto desperate to reverse their fortunes.
Current Form and Team Analysis
Columbus Crew have been in excellent form, particularly since their disappointing loss in the CONCACAF Champions Cup final to Pachuca. Wilfried Nancy’s side have responded admirably, winning four of their last five MLS matches. Their recent performances have been particularly impressive, with dominant victories over Nashville SC, New England Revolution, and Sporting Kansas City. Defensively, Columbus have been solid, recording three clean sheets in their last four home games.
Toronto FC, on the other hand, are in a slump. The Reds have lost their last five matches and are winless in eight. Despite a promising start to the season under John Herdman, Toronto have plummeted down the standings, now sitting precariously close to the playoff line. Their defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly, with the team conceding two or more goals in seven of their last ten away matches.
Expected Goals Analysis
Columbus Crew’s attacking metrics are robust. They average 1.9 goals per game with an expected goals (xG) figure that aligns closely, reflecting their efficiency in front of goal. Defensively, they concede just 0.9 goals per game, underlining their solid backline. Toronto’s metrics, however, tell a different story. They score 1.4 goals per game but concede 1.8, highlighting significant defensive issues.
Key Matchup Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be critical, with Columbus’ Darlington Nagbe up against Toronto’s Federico Bernardeschi. Nagbe’s ability to control the tempo and distribute effectively will be vital in stifling Bernardeschi’s creative influence. Another crucial duel will be between Columbus’ forward Cucho Hernández and Toronto’s defenders. Hernández’s movement and finishing prowess will test Toronto’s shaky backline.
Gameplay Expectations
Columbus are expected to dominate possession and create numerous chances. They have shown an ability to break down defences with patient build-up play and incisive passing. Toronto, conversely, will likely adopt a counter-attacking approach, given their struggles in maintaining possession against high-pressing teams. Columbus’ home advantage and recent form suggest they will be on the front foot from the start.
Managerial Insights and Criticisms
Wilfried Nancy deserves praise for turning Columbus Crew into a formidable unit. His tactical acumen and ability to get the best out of his players have been evident. However, he must ensure complacency does not creep in, especially against a struggling side like Toronto.
John Herdman, in contrast, is under immense pressure. His initial success has faded, and his inability to address defensive lapses and maintain consistency is glaring. Herdman’s tactical approach has been questioned, with frequent changes in formation and personnel contributing to the team’s instability.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Columbus’ strength lies in their balanced play, with a solid defence and a potent attack. Their ability to control games through midfield dominance and effective pressing has been key. However, they occasionally struggle against teams that sit deep and counter-attack effectively.
Toronto’s primary strength is their attacking potential, with players like Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne capable of moments of brilliance. Their weakness, however, is a porous defence that has conceded 39 goals this season. Their inability to close out games, even when taking the lead, has been a significant issue.
Analysis of Both Teams’ Expected Goals Averages
Columbus Crew’s expected goals (xG) average aligns closely with their actual goals scored, indicating efficient finishing. They create numerous high-quality chances per game, reflected in their 2.7 big chances per match. Toronto FC’s xG also aligns with their goals scored, but their defensive xG suggests they concede high-quality chances frequently.
Key Areas of the Field and Player Duels
The midfield will be a battleground, with Nagbe and Bernardeschi’s duel pivotal. Columbus’ wide players, particularly Yeboah and Rossi, will look to exploit Toronto’s full-backs. The forward matchup between Hernández and Toronto’s centre-backs will also be crucial, with Hernández’s movement likely to cause problems.
Gameplay Prediction Based on Playing Styles
Columbus will likely dominate possession and press high, looking to create chances through their midfield and wide players. Toronto will need to be compact defensively and look to hit on the counter. However, given their defensive issues, this approach may not be sufficient to contain Columbus.
Suggestions for Improvement for Both Teams
Columbus need to maintain their defensive discipline and avoid complacency. They should focus on quick transitions and exploiting wide areas where Toronto are vulnerable. Toronto must improve their defensive organisation and work on maintaining concentration throughout the match. Herdman needs to find a stable formation and lineup to provide consistency.
Heavy Criticisms of Toronto FC
Toronto’s season has been a tale of defensive mishaps and missed opportunities. Herdman’s inability to establish a cohesive defensive unit has been a significant failing. The frequent changes in tactics and personnel have led to instability, and the team’s tendency to concede late goals reflects a lack of mental toughness. Herdman’s strategies have often been reactive rather than proactive, failing to address the core issues plaguing the team.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Managers
Wilfried Nancy’s strength lies in his tactical flexibility and ability to motivate his players. His game management has been excellent, often making decisive changes that impact matches. However, he must guard against complacency, especially in matches where his team are favourites.
John Herdman’s early success was based on solidifying Toronto’s defence and leveraging their attacking talents. However, his recent failings in maintaining this balance have been stark. His inability to adapt tactically and the frequent defensive lapses have undermined his team’s performances.
Predictions
Best Bet: Columbus Crew to Win to Nil
Given Columbus Crew’s defensive solidity and Toronto’s attacking struggles, a win for Columbus without conceding is a strong possibility. Columbus have kept five clean sheets in their last ten home games, and Toronto have failed to score in several recent matches.
Correct Score Prediction: Columbus Crew 2-0 Toronto FC
Aligning with the best bet, a 2-0 victory for Columbus Crew seems likely. Their solid defensive record at home and Toronto’s difficulties in breaking down organised defences suggest a comfortable win for the hosts.
Goalscorer Prediction: Cucho Hernández to Score Anytime
Cucho Hernández has been in fine form and will be a key player for Columbus in this match. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a strong candidate to score, particularly against a leaky Toronto defence.
Team to Score First: Columbus Crew
Considering Columbus’ aggressive style and Toronto’s defensive frailties, Columbus are likely to score first. Their ability to start games strongly, especially at home, supports this prediction.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 10.5
Given both teams’ attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, a high number of shots on target is expected. Columbus average 5 shots on target per game, while Toronto manage 4.5. Combined, this suggests over 10.5 shots on target is a plausible outcome.
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