Club Libertad vs Nacional Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews in this Copa Libertadores clash. Club Libertad’s Copa Libertadores campaign ends on Thursday when they host Nacional at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion. Read on for our free predictions and tips.
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage – May 31, 2024 at 1am UK at Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz
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Club Libertad vs Nacional Predictions
Copa Libertadores Group Stage Finale: Nacional’s Quest to End on a High Against Libertad
Key Stats
– Nacional have not lost in six of their last seven away games in all competitions.
– Libertad have scored only five goals in their five Copa Libertadores matches this season.
– Gonzalo Carneiro is Nacional’s top scorer in the Copa Libertadores, with three goals.
On Thursday, Club Libertad will host Nacional in their final match of the Copa Libertadores group stage at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion. While Libertad’s journey in this tournament ends here, Nacional have already secured their place in the knockout stages and will be looking to end the group phase on a high.
Match Preview
Libertad’s performance in this year’s Copa Libertadores has been underwhelming. With just four points from five matches, their campaign will conclude in the group stages for the second consecutive year. However, they still have a chance to qualify for the Copa Sudamericana. A draw against Nacional, or a less-than-five-goal win by Deportivo Tachira, would secure their place in the secondary competition.
Despite their struggles in the Libertadores, Libertad have shown resilience in their domestic league. They have won their last two home games convincingly, scoring nine goals and conceding just one. Their defence has been particularly impressive, keeping three clean sheets in their last three domestic matches since their defeat to River Plate in the Libertadores.
Nacional, on the other hand, have had a solid group stage performance. They have secured their place in the last 16, thanks to strong home performances where they have claimed seven points. Nacional have also been formidable on the road recently, winning four consecutive away matches in all competitions and not conceding in their last two. Their defensive improvements have been significant since their 2-0 loss to River Plate on matchday two.
Team Analysis
Club Libertad
Libertad’s Copa Libertadores campaign has seen them struggle both offensively and defensively. With only five goals scored and seven conceded in five matches, their inconsistency has been their downfall. Their attack averages 12.6 shots per game, with 3.0 on target, showing a need for better finishing. Their defence, while improved in domestic matches, has conceded 1.4 goals per game in the Libertadores.
Ariel Galeano has made tactical adjustments, particularly in their defensive setup, which has seen them keep clean sheets in their recent domestic fixtures. However, injuries have been a concern, with Hector Villalba out due to a cruciate ligament tear. The inclusion of Ivan Ramirez and Ivan Franco in the starting lineup has provided some stability, but their overall performance remains inconsistent.
Nacional
Nacional’s journey in the Libertadores has been marked by solid defensive performances and efficient attacking play. They have scored seven goals and conceded five, demonstrating a balanced approach. Their attack, led by Gonzalo Carneiro, averages 14.9 shots per game, with an impressive 18 successful dribbles per match. Defensively, they have kept six clean sheets in their domestic league, showcasing their strength at the back.
Alvaro Recoba’s side has been well-organised defensively, with a disciplined backline that has conceded only 0.8 goals per game in the Libertadores. The team’s ability to maintain composure and structure, especially in away matches, has been crucial to their success. However, injuries to key players like Thiago Helguera and Renzo Sanchez have tested their depth, but they have managed to cope well.
Key Player Duels
The outcome of this match could hinge on several key battles. One crucial duel will be between Libertad’s forward Oscar Cardozo and Nacional’s defender Diego Polenta. Cardozo’s experience and physical presence will test Polenta’s defensive capabilities and positioning.
In midfield, the contest between Libertad’s Lucas Sanabria and Nacional’s Mauricio Pereyra will be vital. Sanabria’s ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively will be crucial for Libertad, while Pereyra’s vision and creativity could unlock Libertad’s defence.
Expected Gameplay and Strategies
Libertad are expected to adopt a more aggressive approach, leveraging their home advantage to press Nacional from the start. Their high ball possession rate (53.4%) and accurate passing, especially in the opposition half, will be central to breaking down Nacional’s defence. The Paraguayan side will rely on quick transitions and exploiting the wings, aiming to create numerous goal-scoring opportunities.
Nacional, in contrast, may adopt a more cautious strategy, focusing on defending compactly and exploiting counter-attacks. Given their need to maintain form heading into the knockout stages, they might sit deeper, absorbing pressure and looking to hit Libertad on the break. Set pieces will also be a key component of their strategy, given their proficiency in such situations.
Lineups and Tactical Commentary
Club Libertad: Morinigo; Ramirez, L. Cardozo, Viera, Gimenez; Campuzano; Bareiro, Sanabria, Merlini, Espinoza; O. Cardozo
Libertad’s lineup reflects a balance of defensive stability and attacking intent. The backline, led by Viera, will be tasked with neutralising Nacional’s attacks, while the midfield combination of Campuzano and Sanabria will control the tempo. The attacking duo of Merlini and Espinoza will look to penetrate Nacional’s defence with their pace and creativity.
Nacional: Mejia; Lozano, Romero, Polenta, Baez; Oliva, Recoba; Zabala, Pereyra, Gonzalez; Carneiro
Nacional’s probable formation indicates a defensive setup with a focus on counter-attacks. The defence will need to be organised and disciplined to withstand Libertad’s pressure. The midfield, particularly Pereyra and Recoba, will be crucial in breaking up play and launching quick counter-attacks. Carneiro will be key in converting any chances that come their way.
Betting Angles and Trends
Analysing the provided data highlights several betting opportunities. Nacional’s strong form and Libertad’s defensive issues make an away win and under 2.5 goals a solid bet. Additionally, the likelihood of Nacional scoring first and their high shot volume suggest backing them for early dominance and exceeding 4.5 shots on target.
Predictions
Best Bet: Nacional to Win to Nil
Given their recent form and defensive solidity, Nacional are favourites to win this match. Their ability to perform under pressure and Libertad’s inconsistencies support this prediction. Nacional’s organised defence and efficient attack should see them secure a victory to nil.
Correct Score Prediction: Club Libertad 0-1 Nacional
Considering Nacional’s strong defensive record and Libertad’s struggles in attack, a 1-0 victory for Nacional seems plausible. Nacional have the defensive capability to keep a clean sheet, while their organised attack can find the net against Libertad’s shaky defence.
Goalscorer Prediction: Gonzalo Carneiro to Score
Gonzalo Carneiro, with his goal-scoring prowess, is a strong candidate to score in this match. His ability to find space and finish chances makes him a significant threat to Libertad’s defence. Given his form and the stakes, he is expected to rise to the occasion and deliver.
First Team to Score: Nacional
Given Libertad’s defensive vulnerabilities and Nacional’s solid start in recent matches, Nacional are likely to score first. The Uruguayan side’s structured play and the need to take control early in the game will drive them to break the deadlock.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Nacional Over 4.5
Nacional’s offensive strategy and their average of 3.0 shots on target per game suggest they will exceed 4.5 shots on target in this match. Given Libertad’s defensive lapses and Nacional’s need to make a statement, this is a plausible outcome.
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